The PGA Tour takes on the Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort this week.
Hello friends… The FedEx Cup Fall rolls on after Presidents Cup week. This week the PGA Tour heads back to Ivins, Utah, for the Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort. It’s a $6M purse and the third straight year on this desert layout, with defending champion Michael Brennan looking to go back-to-back after winning here at -22 last year. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Black Desert Resort plays as a par 71 at 7,421 yards. Fairways are easy to hit (FIR 84% vs. Tour avg 59.6%), the greens are generous (GIR 74.2% vs. Tour avg 65.7%), and scoring has been hot here (4.47 birdies per round vs. Tour avg 3.67). It’s a birdie fest on paper, but you still have to put yourself in position to make birdies. Expect bombers and accurate approaches to matter, with plenty of mid-iron looks from 150-200. Let’s dive into the BTN model we put together
OTT: Wide fairways invite aggression, but distance from the edge and solid tee shots still separate the field. We included standard SG: OTT per round vs. the field at 25% weight, with Distance from the edge of the fairway at an additional 15% weight in our model this week
APP: Approach definitely still remains the main separator on a birdie track with a lot of mid-range looks. We included standard SG: APP per round vs. field at a 20% weight with SG: APP per shot vs. baseline at an additional 20% weight this week in our model
ATG: Nothing extraordinary to call out here. Standard SG: ARG at 5% weight to account for greens you somehow miss here.
Putting: Pretty simple, convert your birdie looks this week. We included standard SG: Putting per round vs. field at a 15% weight this week
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Kohles and Jackson Koivun . Ben Kohles had a real chance to win at the Biltmore, and Jackson Koivun is coming off an undefeated Presidents Cup performance and is the betting favorite this week. Let’s enjoy some fall golf!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Ben Kohles as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (15-12-5) 🤼♂️ Ben Kohles (-120) ✅ over Nick Taylor (-110) on DraftKings
We’ll be honest, folks. The Bank of Utah Championship does not exactly have us sprinting through a wall with major championship energy, but a matchup ticket is a matchup ticket, and we are here to work.
This week we head to Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, where we’re backing Ben Kohles over Nick Taylor. And while we’re still not totally sure how easy it is to get a Diet Coke or a Tito’s and soda out there in the desert, we are very sure the BTN Model is speaking loud and clear – just like we like it.
Kohles checks in number one in the entire BTN Custom Model this week, while Taylor sits well behind him. That alone gets our attention. The matchup tool backs it up too, with Kohles holding the stronger profile in the categories we care about most.
Kohles has also been playing some really solid golf over the last few months, stacking strong finishes and showing the kind of consistency we want to trust in a matchup like this. Taylor is always capable of hanging around and making things uncomfortable, but Kohles is the guy the numbers clearly want us on this week.
So we’ll trust the model, ride the better current profile, and hope Kohles keeps climbing through the Utah desert all the way back to our favorite payout window.
Ben Kohles vs Nick Taylor in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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