The PGA tour takes on the Texas Children’s Houston Open this week.
The PGA Tour begins a two-week Texas swing with the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. World number 1 and 2 are teeing it up with Scottie and Rory taking on an otherwise middle-of-the-road field in a full cut event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Memorial Park Golf Course plays as a par 70 featuring just three par 5s and five par 3s. The course favors long hitters with Bermuda grass from tee to green and a relatively forgiving rough penalty. The course average is just shy of 3 birdies per round vs. a Tour average of 3.67, indicating that birdies come at a premium here which makes sense with one fewer par 5.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: Longer hitters are rewarded at the Houston Open with a relatively high bomb opportunity and forgiving rough. The BTN Model features Ball Speed as a factor this week to favor longer hitters.
APP: Many approach shots on this course come from 150-200 yards, and players are primarily hitting their second shots out of the fairways. The BTN Model adds extra emphasis for SG:APP from this distance out of the fairway.
ATG: Past top performers at the Houston Open have strong SG:ATG numbers, leaving themselves easier putts. Players average ~5 chips from the fairway each round here.
Putting: The greens are now overseed at Memorial Park. The BTN Model prioritizes recent putting performance on overseed for SG:PUTT.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler . No surprise there with his ball striking prowess. Can Scottie claim victory this weekend in his home state?
This week’s BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (1-1) 🤼♂️ Jake Knapp (+100) ✅ over Kurt Kitayama (-125) on DraftKings
We are looking for a bounce back week after Ben An played a great tournament and fended off a late Sunday surge from Michael Kim. This week, the BTN team has their eyes set on Jake Knapp to outperform Kurt Kitayama for even money on DraftKings. This is primarily a recent form play as Jake Knapp has been consistently outperforming Kurt Kitayama over the course of this year so far. Jake has 3 T20s in his last 5 events as opposed to Kurt with 3 MCs in his last 5. We’re not going to overthink this one too much and fire on the even-money play.
Jake Knapp vs. Kurt Kitayama in the BTN Matchup tool
Feature Spotlight 🔦 This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Course Info card. Featured in several places throughout BTN including the Tournament tab, Course tab, and Hole Props tab, this card is packed with valuable information about the course, including:
General course Information like par, distance, and designer – important for course comps
Key stats vs. the Tour average – critical for prop bets like FIR, GIR, and BoB & BoW bets
Grass types and green size – important for determining rough penalty and comp courses. Plus, some players excel chipping and putting on specific grass types.
BTN Course Info card packed with valuable course information.
GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog . Check out his Houston Open picks and analysis here , and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.
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Best of luck this week!
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