The PGA tour takes on the Truist Championship at the Philadelphia Cricket Club this week.
We have arrived at the next signature event on the PGA Tour schedule: The Truist Championship (formerly the Wells Fargo Championship). Since Quail Hollow is hosting the PGA Championship next week, this event is being held at the Philadelphia Cricket Club on the Wissahickon Course. We don’t have any past ShotLink data from this course, but the BTN team has boots on the ground to give you the intel you need to lock in your edge when betting the Truist. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ We’ve seen a lot of touts pushing narratives that the greens are firm, rough is thick, and angles are going to really matter into these greens. Our boots on the ground report is quite the opposite. The greens are pretty soft right now, and more rain is expected in the forecast tomorrow night and Friday. The rough is pretty sparse as it’s still too early in the season for thick grass to grow in Philly. Short game is going to be pretty easy here as long as players are staying out of the penal greenside bunkers. Ball speed will be a significant advantage here as well; players that reach 180+ will be able to carry most of the fairway bunkers and find safety in the wide fairways. There are 4-5 hard holes, but we expect plenty of birdies if the wind doesn’t get too intense, and a winning score in the high teens or low twenties. Look for tomorrow to be pretty low scoring before the weather rolls in for a more turbulent round 2.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: Bombers will have success here. Many fairway bunkers can be carried 300-310 yards and give an easy look into the green. The fairways are pretty wide too. The BTN Model features Carry Distance to reward long hitters.
APP: Players will hit many approach shots from 125-175 yards which is given extra weight in the BTN Model. We don’t expect much of a rough penalty and see good iron players giving themselves plenty of birdie looks.
ATG: Chipping is not going to be much of a factor. As long as players are avoiding the penal greenside bunkers, this category is not going to be a differentiator. SG: ATG is only given 5% weight in the model this week.
Putting: The bent greens have lots of slope to them, and players that are able to convert their birdie looks from 15’ and in will climb the leaderboard. The BTN Model features putting on bent grass from 8-15’ as the key range, and BoB% to reward those that convert.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy . As one of the most prolific bombers on the Tour, it’s no surprise the model loves Rory here.
This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (3-3-1) 🤼♂️ Daniel Berger (-110) ✅ over Shane Lowry (-115) on DraftKings
The board has tight matchups this week, but we see some value with Daniel Berger over Shane Lowry in a H2H when looking at their stats. Using the BTN Matchup tool over the last 12 rounds, Berger has outperformed Lowry across nearly every stat category. A deeper dive into the BTN Model also shows Berger with an advantage in the 125–175 yard approach range which is a key distance bucket at Philly Cricket Club this week. Finally, looking at their Player pages, Berger is converting birdies at a 37% rate compared to Lowry at just 30%. Both players are in solid form, and we like Berger to convert more birdies to edge out Lowry this week.
Daniel Berger vs Shane Lowry in the BTN Matchup tool
Feature Spotlight 🔦 This week’s Feature Spotlight: The driving card on the Player page. When courses like the Philly Cricket Club call for long hitters off the tee, the driving card gives a great view of each player’s driving stats and how they compare to the Tour average. Below we can see Rory’s driving card, where he notoriously crushes the competition in ball speed and average distance. On the other hand, his fairway accuracy is on the lower end of the Tour. While not as much of a concern this week, this will be penalizing in tighter courses with a higher rough penalty.
Rory McIlroy’s driving stats on his Player page
GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog . Check out his RBC Heritage picks and analysis here , and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.
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Best of luck this week!
Ben K.
Bet The Number
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