The PGA Tour takes on the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind this week.
The playoffs have arrived! It’s been an exciting few weeks, as for the first time since 2017, there have been three or more consecutive PGA Tour winners aged 24 or younger. The top 70 players on the PGA Tour are teeing it up this week at TPC Southwind, competing for 50 spots in next week’s BMW Championship. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Last year, new renovations were done leading up to this event. They re-grassed most of the course and put aprons around the greens. The greens got firmer, the rough got thicker, and chipping got easier without the grainy Bermuda lies. They redid some bunkers, both fairway and green bunkers, which made them slightly less penal than years past.
No new changes this year. Overall, the course is in great shape, and the renovations were received well. We were pretty spot on last year with a targeted winning score around -12 to -15. Wouldn’t be shocking to see something similar again this year
Let’s dive into the BTN model this week:
OTT: Given the Bermuda rough is a bit thicker than usual, accuracy will play at more of a premium in this year’s event. Long hitters tend to pull their drivers out of the bag a bit less than average at TPC Southwind as well, which is evident by the course being a 2.6/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight, and Distance from Edge of Fairway at a 10% weight to reward accuracy.
APP: This has always been an approach player’s course; many of the past winners and top performers were great iron players. There are plenty of middle-of-the-bag shots from 120-190 here, and some tucked pin locations will be difficult to reach. More advanced modelers could include SG:APP out of Bermuda rough as a differentiating statistic, given the extra length on the rough this year. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week, and SG:APP from 120-190 yards at an additional 20% weight.
ATG: The grass around the greens is all Zoysia now, so players won’t be facing dicey, grainy Bermuda lies like they used to here. However, the greens are very firm for chipping, so ATG play won’t be too much easier than years past. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.
Putting: The Bermuda greens are in perfect condition right now. They aren’t very grainy like typical Bermuda at this point, though, so we don’t think it’s necessary to model specifically on Bermuda greens. The greens are relatively flat, so we don’t expect many 3-putts, though some tucked pins may be hard to reach on approach shots. Guys will have plenty of birdie looks from 8-15 feet and will need to convert these to jump ahead in the leaderboard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-15’ to reward those who can sink their birdie looks.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler and Jackson Koivun . The FedEx Cup leader and the rookie lead with perfect 10’s this week in the model. Followed closely by big names in great form, the playoffs are sure to give us some exciting golf. We all know Captain Snedeker will be watching the next 2 weeks closely… let’s join him!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler and Jackson Koivun as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (14-9-5) 🤼♂️ J.J. Spaun (-114) ✅ over Ben Griffin (-114) on DraftKings
Listen folks, we got ourselves back to the payout window last week, and now the only responsible thing to do is slap a fresh label on that winning ticket and ship it straight to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
This week we’re going back to the well with JJ Spaun over Ben Griffin. It’s a dead-even matchup according to the oddsmakers, but the BTN numbers and current form point us pretty clearly toward Spaun.
Spaun finished 2nd here last year when he was on the hottest streak of his career, and while he has not been quite that lights-out lately, he’s still playing solid golf and checking a lot of boxes. He comes in 5th in the overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Griffin sits 63rd. That’s exactly the kind of gap we like to see in a matchup priced this evenly.
Griffin, meanwhile, remains a bit of an enigma wrapped in a range bucket. He had a strong run in the middle of the season, but he’s now missed two straight cuts and lost strokes ball striking in both starts. That’s not exactly ideal at Southwind, where you better have the irons and off-the-tee game in decent working order.
This should be a close battle in a no-cut event, but we trust the better model fit, the stronger course form, and the guy checking more boxes. Give us Spaun to handle business and ship Ben Griffin overnight right back to the loading dock while we head to the payout window.
J.J. Spaun vs. Ben Griffin in the new BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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