The PGA Tour takes on the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club this week.
Hop off that John Deere tractor cause the PGA Tour travels across the pond this week to the Genesis Scottish Open. Chris Gotterup is coming to defend his title after prevailing last week. It’s an awesome story for an event that has been incredible over the last few years, always a stacked field with most of the world’s top players looking to enjoy an event on a true links-style course before the final major of the season. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ The Renaissance Club is a challenging par 70 at 7,237 yards, including three par 5s and five par 3s. The course has a lower than average fairway rate, given the links-style layout, and features 0.3 fewer birdies and 0.3 more bogeys per round than the Tour average. They did slightly re-route the course this year compared to years past, but it’s still the same holes. Although the weather forecast doesn’t have a ton of rain, we can expect the Scottish elements to play a factor, with double-digit winds expected all weekend.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: Conditions are expected to be firm, so the ball will roll a long way. Players who can avoid fairway bunkers will have an advantage here. Given the links style of the course, there isn’t much of a rough penalty as tee shots roll out of the fairways. The BTN model uses SG:OTT per round at a 20% weight this week.
APP: Players will be hitting longer than average shots, especially with the windy conditions. The greens are tricky, so you want a strong approach play to help players get more birdie looks and minimize 3-putts. The BTN model uses standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week. PLUS another 20% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yards from the fairway.
ATG: The main storyline with the ARG play here is that players will be hitting plenty of longer fairway chips. The BTN model uses SG:ARG from 20+ yards out in the fairway at a 10% weight.
Putting: Lag putting season. Players will have plenty of long putts and will need to nestle them close for comfy pars. We focus on the shorter putts that are trickier to hole here with the slower greens. The BTN model features both 3-putt avoidance at 20% weight and SG:Putt from 4’-8’ at 10% weight to reward players that can convert on these tricky greens.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler . This isn’t super surprising, with both players showing great recent form and course history here. Alex Fitzpatrick is in our top 5 again, and it will be interesting to see how he fares this year with his newfound game after back to back MC’s at this event. We’re in for another exciting Scottish Open!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (12-7-4) 🤼♂️ Patrick Reed (-116) ✅ over David Puig (-112) on DraftKings
Doug Ghim got us an even-money winner last week, so we’ll gladly pack that ticket and head across the pond for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club.
This week, we’re taking Patrick Reed over David Puig, also known as the faceless profile pic mystery man. Reed checks in 30th in the overall BTN Custom Model, while Puig sits way down at 123rd. That’s a pretty healthy gap for a matchup priced this close.
Neither guy has much recent course history here, so we’re leaning on fit and trust. The Renaissance Club is a par 70 Tom Doak design in North Berwick with links-style flavor, wind, firm conditions, and plenty of spots where creativity around the greens matters. That sounds a little more Patrick Reed than faceless avatar energy.
Give us Reed’s short game, experience, and ability to survive when things get weird across the pond. If he scrambles his way around The Renaissance Club like we think he can, we’ll gladly follow him back to the payout window.
Patrick Reed vs. David Puig (faceless) in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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