The PGA Tour takes on the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley this week.
The Postman won’t be delivering the mail this week after his victory at the Memorial, but the PGA Tour does head back to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the second edition of the RBC Canadian Open at this venue. After last year, we’ve got a tournament’s worth of ShotLink data to better understand what separates contenders here. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
Feature Spotlight 🔦 This week’s Feature Spotlight: Rolling Stats 📈
We always listen to our customers at Bet The Number, and they’ve been asking for this. The Rolling Stats page shows you how guys are performing in any official stat we get from the PGA Tour over the last 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 rounds.
Positioned under the BTN Research Tab, you can find the Rolling Stats tool available today. The picture below showcases an example of just one of the many stats we have at our disposal for you to do your own deep dive.
Top 10 Putters on the PGA Tour from 5-15’ sorted on Last 24 Rounds
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley is back, and here’s what we learned last year:
It was soft last year.
Winning Score: -18 (Sam Burns > Ryan Fox in a playoff)
T20 Score was -12
Driving Accuracy: 66% (Tour Avg: 59.6%)
GIR Percentage: 72% (Tour Avg: 65.7%)
There were only 3 guys with more than 6 Bogeys or Worse in the T20 last year. Had to convert your opportunities and avoid mistakes
There was a rain delay today, so we can expect it to be soft again . There will be some extra wind in the forecast to make it more challenging. TPC Toronto is a relatively long par 70 with only two par 5s. There’s definitely variety with six par 4s over 480 yards and two under 380 yards, and two par 3s over 220 and two under 160 yards.
Depending on how windy it gets, it’s a good guess that we’ll see similar performance to last year out here. Let’s dive into an updated BTN model this week from last year:
OTT: There’s certainly some strategy required off the tee here, with a number of doglegs. Long hitters have an advantage on the long par 4s, but the shorter holes minimize that advantage. We’ve included standard SG: OTT in this week’s model at 20%
APP: We’re focusing on two yardage ranges this week. SG: APP from 100-150 yards and then 200-250 yards, at a 25% and 20% weight, respectively. We’re honing in on the ball striking in spots where it will separate contenders.
ATG: Nothing extraordinary to call out here. Standard SG: ARG at 10% weight to account for the handful of up and downs on these longer par 4s.
Putting: We’ve got two putting metrics we’re looking at this week: First, focusing on the Bent/Poa greens that TPC Toronto has, so we have a SG: Putting per round vs. field and a filter on Bent/Poa weighted at 15%. Then we have an SG: Putting between 8-15 ft weighted at 10%
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Sam Burns . The defending champ gets the nod after a T5 finish last week at the Memorial. Let’s enjoy some Canadian golf this week, friends!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Sam Burns as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (10-6-3) 🤼♂️ Eric Cole (-112) ✅ over Harry Hall (-118) on DraftKings
Well folks, the heater finally came to a sad little end last week, so it’s time to dust ourselves off and head north for the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto, Osprey Valley’s North Course. Our matchup play this week is Eric Cole over Harry Hall, and we’re honestly a little surprised Cole is the underdog. But when the window wants to hand us a better number, we’re not going to argue.
The BTN numbers make this one pretty clear. Cole checks in 13th in our overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Hall sits all the way down at 94th. That’s a pretty big gap for a matchup where Hall is still the favorite.
The recent form points in the same direction. Cole comes in rolling with two straight top 10 finishes, while Hall has missed two cuts in his last three starts. Over the last 20 rounds, the BTN Matchup Tool gives Cole the edge in total strokes gained, approach, around the green, putting, greens in regulation, birdies or better, and bogey avoidance. That’s not exactly splitting hairs. That’s the matchup tool grabbing us by the collar and pointing us toward Cole.
Hall does hit a few more fairways and makes a few more pars, but Cole is the guy doing the actual damage right now. So we’ll take the better form, the better BTN profile, and the underdog price with Eric Cole to get us cooking in Canada and send us back to the payout window.
Eric Cole vs Harry Hall in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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