While the 2026 majors are officially behind us, there’s still plenty of golf left this year as the season rolls on with the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. While many of the top names on Tour are taking this week off, we’ll see Scottie teeing it up alongside 143 others in this full-field event with a standard 36-hole cut. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform. But first, a note on our recent matchups enhancements.
ICYMI: Matchup Tool Revamp 🆚 In case you missed it last week, we made some serious updates to our Matchup Tool on Bet The Number. We’re now bringing in all matchups from Draftkings including 2- and 3-balls, round matchups, and tournament matchups. We’ve also added more data to matchup comparisons including live odds, historical H2H matchup performance, and improved visuals for strokes gained and scoring comparisons. All serving our mission to provide you with the context, data, and tools you need to make more informed bets.
BTN Matchups Page: More Stats and Analysis
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ So what can we expect from TPC Twin Cities this week? The last 3 winners came in at -23, -17, and -24 which means we can expect some scoring this weekend. Looking at the BTN Course Insights tool, we see the same theme with a notably high GIR rate at 72%, favorable scoring vs par at a -1.38 average, a generous 4.17 birdies per round, and an avg proximity of just under 34’ compared to Tour average of ~38’. With pretty mild weather in the forecast, we’re likely looking at a typical 3M tournament. Let there be birdies!
Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week:
OTT: With a bomber’s paradise score of 4.7/10 and a relatively friendly rough penalty, there’s not much to write home about regarding off-the-tee play. We’re including standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week.
APP: The key approach range at TPC Twin Cities is 100-190 yards with over 10 shots per round coming from this bucket. The guys who have their wedges and short irons dialed will be looking at plenty of birdie opportunities. We’re weighing standard SG: APP at 20% this week, plus an additional 25% for approaches from 100-190 yards.
ATG: If players do miss these large greens, they’ll be expecting to scramble for par and avoid bogeys. We’ve included standard scrambling this week at a 10% weight .
Putting: With the birdie narrative, we want to see guys converting their looks from 15’ and in. We’ve included SG:PUTT from 6-15’ at a 20% weight this week.
We already knew Scottie was going to be a perfect 10 at this course against this field. The guy is -158 to finish Top 5 as of Wednesday afternoon which is pretty nuts. Some other hot names have popped into our top 5 though: Ben Kohles, Johnny Keefer, Tom Kim, and Jackson Koivun. All these guys have a nice combo of form and fit – will be fun to see who rises to the top come Sunday!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Tommy Fleetwood & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (13-7-5) 🤼♂️ Max Homa (-115) ✅ over Sungjae Im (-114) on DraftKings
Last week at The Open gave us another tie, which is not exactly a parade down Broad Street, but it also was not a loss. So we’ll take it, keep the heater technically breathing, and move on to the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
This week we’re backing Max Homa over Sungjae Im in what is basically a pick’em matchup on the odds board. Sungjae played well last week, and we’re not ignoring that, but his season as a whole has been all over the map. One week he looks like the old Sungjae, the next week he looks like he borrowed someone else’s golf bag and hoped for the best.
Homa, on the other hand, has been steadily improving as the season has gone along. The overall results may not scream superstar just yet, but the game is trending in the right direction, and that’s exactly what we want to buy into at this point in the year.
The BTN numbers agree. Homa checks in 47th in the overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Im sits way down at 112th. The Matchup Tool also leans toward Homa, giving us enough confidence to take the guy with the better current profile in a matchup priced this close.
Same outright odds, nearly the same matchup price, but we’re betting Homa is the one ready to break the tie and get us back in the win column at TPC Twin Cities.
Max Homa vs Sungjae Im Matchup Stats
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Enjoy the tournament – and good luck with your bets!
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