The PGA Tour takes on the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch this week.
Coming off an inspiring performance at the PGA Championship last week from Aaron Rai, we’ve got 2 non-signature event stops before we head to Columbus for the next signature event. This week, the PGA Tour takes on the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. A completely renovated course will bring a fresh look to this tournament. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ TPC Craig Ranch will play as a par 71 measuring just under 7,400 yards. We don’t have boots on the ground this week, but we do know the course underwent a massive $25M renovation since last year’s event. The primary goal was obvious: prevent another Scottie Scheffler-style 30-under runaway and introduce more demanding decision-making throughout the course. Greens have been reduced in size, bunker complexes tightened up, and approach angles appear far more important than they’ve been in previous editions here.
Even with the changes, this should still be a venue where players can make plenty of birdies. The property remains relatively flat and forgiving off the tee, and there are still reachable par 5s along with an abundance of short/mid iron approach opportunities. Pure distance alone likely won’t separate the field, but elite iron players who consistently control trajectory and distance should benefit from the redesigned green complexes.
The key question this week isn’t whether players can score… they will. The question is whether the renovations have introduced enough penalty around the greens to create meaningful separation. If the new surfaces firm up and the tighter bunker positioning starts punishing slight misses, Craig Ranch could finally shift from a pure putting contest into a more complete ball striking test, with winning scores landing closer to the 15-20 under par instead of another massive birdie fest.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: We’re focusing on recent OTT performance this week. Narrowed to the last 12 rounds, we used standard SG:OTT vs. field at a 20% weight this week in our model
APP: Similar story as OTT, we’re putting heavy weight on the recent APP performance this week. Last 12 rounds, standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week combined with an additional 10% on SG:APP from 175-250.
ATG: Because of the renovations, we’ve factored in a 10% weight on recent SG:ARG performance with a 10% weight in the model
Putting: We’re focused on Bent greens this week. We are using a standard SG:Putting at 10% weight (filtered to Bent greens) combined with an additional SG:Putting from 8-15 feet on Bent greens for another 10% weight to reward those that can convert birdies
Scoring : We know you need to score this week, so we added Birdie or Better % at a 15% weight this week in the model to factor in players converting their birdie opportunities
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler . The books are extremely high on Scottie with an outright price of +168 on DraftKings as of this writing. He’s trying to repeat from last years dominant performance, but seems to be missing a little something in his game as of recent. We’ll see if he can get the job done at this absurd outright price.
This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (9-5-2) 🤼♂️ Blades Brown (-104) ✅ over Doug Ghim (-128) on DraftKings
Well folks, you could say we’re on a slight heater again after cashing another ticket last week with Alex Fitzpatrick over Jacob Bridgeman at the PGA Championship. We don’t expect that heater to flame out in the Texas heat either, as we roll into the CJ Cup Byron Nelson with the young gun Blades Brown over Doug Ghim.
Ghim is the favorite in this matchup, and you can certainly understand why. He has a lot more PGA TOUR experience and has been slightly better than average for, well, most of his career. Blades, on the other hand, is a star in the making and has already shown he can hang with just about anyone. Whether it’s on the Korn Ferry Tour or the PGA TOUR, where he threatened to win, played alongside Scottie Scheffler, and almost fired a 59 just a few months ago, the kid clearly has some serious juice.
The stats back up the play too. Even with limited PGA TOUR data, Brown is outperforming Ghim in most major categories, and this feels like the kind of setup where talent and upside may matter more than experience. Could Blades get his first win this week at TPC Craig Ranch? Absolutely. A little sprinkle on the 80-1 outright number is not the worst idea in the world.
But for now, we’ll gladly settle for the matchup and trust Blades Brown to stay sharp enough to cut through Ghim and send us back to the payout window again.
Blades Brown vs Doug Ghim in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
Ryan L.
Bet The Number
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