The second to last signature event of the 2026 season has arrived with the 50th anniversary of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio. As a signature event, we have a 72-player field with the top names in golf competing at Jack’s place. There is a 36-hole cut to be aware of with top 50 including ties and those within 10 shots of the lead making the weekend. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Muirfield is a challenging par-72 course which plays a lengthy 7,569 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see quite a bit of red with the course playing materially harder than average in Greens in Reg, Scrambling, Scoring vs Par, Birdies per Round, Bogeys per Round, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, and Par 5 scoring. Woof. The one area of relief here is average prox. where Muirfield sits at the edge of the top quartile of Tour courses.
A few nuggets from our boots on the ground this week:
The greens are very firm.
The rough is thick. It’s not super long but will be a factor.
If we get wind out of the northeast, watch out. Greens will become trampolines.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: Check out the rough penalty at Muirfield village. No bueno. We’re putting all of our OTT weight this week behind driving accuracy at 15% of our model.
APP: Iron play is at a premium this week with the greens being this firm. 150-225 yards is the key distance bucket with 10 or so approach shots from this range. We’ve got standard SG:APP at a 15% weight in our model, and SG:APP from 150-225 yards from the tee and fairway at an additional 25%.
ATG: With notably low GIR rates and scrambling rates, around the green play will definitely factor into success this week. Guys will need to get up and down to save par. We have standard SG:ARG at a 10% weight in our model.
Putting: Colonial has some of the purest bent greens on Tour. Putting will be essential both to convert a few birdie looks and save pars. We have SG:PUTT on bent greens at a 10% weight in our model this week.
Bogey Avoidance: Muirfield is a tough track. The players that minimize the squares on their scorecard can find themselves in contention. Bogey avoidance rounds out our model with a final 25%.
This week’s BTN Model favorites are (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young, AND Russell Henley all scoring perfect 10s in the model. Pretty rare we see 3 guys scoring perfect 10s, but these 3 are all playing great golf this season including Russ’s win last week in Fort Worth. Should be a great event at Jack’s place in its 50th anniversary.
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model
Matchup of the Week (10-5-3) 🤼♂️ Matt Fitzpatrick (-112) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-118) on DraftKings
Well folks, we didn’t cash a ticket last week, but we didn’t lose one either because it finished as a straight-up tie. So guess what? By our very official and not-at-all-biased Tour Junkies accounting department, the heater is still alive.
This week we head to Jack’s Place for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, and our matchup play is Matt Fitzpatrick over Xander Schauffele. This one is a little scary because both guys are elite, but we’re riding the hotter hand and backing Fitzy to stir up one of those famous Muirfield Village milkshakes and pour it all over Xander’s scorecard by Sunday afternoon.
On paper, and in our golf brains, this looks like a pretty even matchup. But when we drill down inside the BTN Matchup Tool, Fitzpatrick starts to separate. Over the last 24 rounds, Fitzy has the edge in total strokes gained, approach, around the green, fairways hit, birdies or better, and bogey avoidance. That’s a strong little profile for Muirfield Village, where you better be sharp with the irons and avoid turning Jack’s Place into a personal house of horrors.
Xander has been solid at Muirfield, and we are certainly not here to pretend he’s suddenly bad at golf. That would be dumb, and we try to save our dumb for more important moments. But Fitzpatrick has been plenty good here too, with two top 10s in his last three starts at the Memorial. He also checks in top 5 in the BTN Custom Model this week, while Xander sits at 10th.
In a short field with this much talent, we know this one could turn into a four-day fistfight. But the form, the course fit, and the BTN numbers all point us toward Fitzy. So we’ll slide the heater money across the counter and back Matt Fitzpatrick to shake up Jack’s Place and send us right back to the payout window.
Matt Fitzpatrick vs Xander Schauffele in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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