The final major of 2026: the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club
The final major of the 2026 season has arrived with the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. Royal Birkdale has been the host of several historic champions, most recently Jordan Spieth in 2017, and we’re in for another incredibly exciting week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
Feature Spotlight 🔦 This week’s Feature Spotlight: MATCHUP TOOL UPDATE 🚨
We made some serious updates to our Matchup Tool on Bet The Number in the last week. We made updates earlier this year to bring in the groupings for each tee time. That was an awesome update, but books aren’t always offering lines on guys who play together for full-tournament matchups.
We’re now bringing in all the matchups that DraftKings offers, from single-round matchups to full-tournament matchups. With the click of a button, you can now analyze bets that DK offers, and you can see all relevant stats & prop metrics for how each player performs. See below for an example of just one of the matchups being offered this week.
You’ve gotta check this out! We’re looking for feedback and want to ensure we’re offering the best tools for PGA Tour bettors on the market.
BTN Matchups Page: New DK Matchups offered
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ It is going to be a CRISPY week of golf here at Royal Birkdale this week. We haven’t seen much rain, and the forecast isn’t calling for any. It’s not the same course we saw in 2017, with Mackenzie & Ebert coming in for a renovation in 2021. While every hole got some attention in the renovation, the main changes came on the back 9. The former 14th hole is no longer there, and the former 15th hole is now a longer par 5. The new 15th hole is a longer par 3. So all in all, the back 9 is now offering more variety for shot-making as these players are coming down the stretch.
It’s been pretty public about how longer irons are running out upwards of 300 yards in the practice rounds. At the end of the day, you don’t want to overthink the golf course at an Open. Hit fairways, avoid (most) the pot bunkers and get creative around the greens, grind out the weather with the rest of the field, and you’ll find yourself in contention come Sunday. Let’s take a look at our model this week
The BTN Open Championship Model It’s a major week, but the model doesn’t need to be complicated. Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Royal Birkdale:
OTT: These players gotta keep it in play this week. It’s firm, and it’s fast. Keep it out of the fescue as much as possible. We are using standard SG: OTT per round + Driving Accuracy % for 20% weight each this week.
APP: We’re focusing on approach shots from 150+ this week. We’ll see some longer approach shots, despite how firm it will be. We’re weighing this SG: APP from 150+ at 30% this week
ATG: It’s an Open Championship, you need to scramble well to win. We’ve included standard scrambling this week at 20% weight .
Putting: We’re using a simple SG: Putting per round vs. field at 10% weight this week
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Tommy Fleetwood & Scottie Scheffler, both scoring a perfect 10. Tommy has the most T10 finishes at a major without a win in the last 10 seasons. Scottie is coming off his first missed cut since before the internet. Followed behind them is last week’s champion, Tom Kim, and many hot-handed golfers… so let’s sit back and enjoy our last major of 2026.
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Tommy Fleetwood & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (13-7-4) 🤼♂️ Chris Gotterup (-102) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-130) on DraftKings
I don’t know how many heaters the golf gambling gods will allow us to go on, but we’re on another one now, so we might as well ride it straight into the season’s final major.
This week, we head to Royal Birkdale for the 154th Open Championship, and our matchup play is Chris Gotterup over Xander Schauffele. Gotterup is the underdog here, but we’re having a hard time seeing why.
Gotterup has simply been the more consistent player this season, and three wins in one year do not happen by accident. He’s also already shown he can handle links-style golf, winning the Scottish Open last year and following it up with a solo 3rd at The Open. That plays for us.
Xander obviously has the bigger name and a tremendous Open Championship record, including a win a couple of years ago, but he’s been searching for steady footing all season. The flashes are still there, but the week-to-week trust has not been.
The BTN numbers back it up too. Gotterup checks in 44th in the overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Xander sits 72nd. Gotterup also grades out solid across the board, especially with the ball striking, and he’s been the much more reliable putter this season. Xander’s putter has looked like it’s on loan from week to week, and that is not exactly what we want when trying to survive an Open Championship.
So we’ll gladly take the hotter player, the better BTN profile, and the underdog price with Gotterup. Xander has the Open pedigree, but right now Gotterup has the form, the confidence, and the number we want. Let’s carry this heater across the pond and back to the payout window one more time.
Chris Gotterup vs Xander Schauffele in the BTN M
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There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!
Team Bet The Number
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