The third major of 2026: the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
The third major of the 2026 season has arrived with the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Just like Oakmont last year, Shinnecock doesn’t get regular Tour Stops. Just like Oakmont last year, we can expect Shinnecock to be a brute. J.J. Spaun won at -1 last year, and the last time we saw the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, Brooks won at +1! Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Shinnecock has been infamous for the difficult conditions the players faced in 2018. One can argue that the memory of Phil Mickelson hitting a moving ball on the green was more popular than Brooks winning the tournament itself, and that’s a problem. So the main talking point this week is going to revolve around whether they will “lose the course” again or not. More on that shortly.
Shinnecock is a par 70 with only two par 5s and only one par 3 under 180 yards. It’s renowned for its crowned green complexes, where everything falls off on the edges and requires some creativity around the greens. The fairways are wider than your traditional US Open course, which will be one single nice thing for the players. We’re still focused on guys who hit it near the center of the fairway, cause obviously if you miss them you’re in trouble. It’s a U.S. Open, the script is usually pretty simple: Hit Fairways, avoid doubles, make your par putts, and capitalize on the opportunities when you can get them.
Straight from the BTN Course page, Shinnecock 2018 stats are fascinating. Below is a screenshot highlighting how the Fairways Hit are almost 12% higher than the PGA Tour average, while Greens in Regulation are 11% lower than average. Highly recommend diving into our Course page on BTN for these insights
BTN Course Insights on the Course Research Page
Although we are seeing and hearing about consistently watered greens, potentially even slightly aerated to let the greens absorb the water more easily, it’s safe to say we’re still going to get some carnage. Boots on the ground are telling us that it’s getting firm, and Shinnecock doesn’t really need help from the external conditions we’re expecting to play more difficult.
The wind we’re expecting will be diabolical. If they do get some of this projected rain, it could help delay the inevitable of the greens firming up. If we see gusts upwards of 30-40mph and we DON’T get the rain, kick back your feet and watch these guys get punched in the mouth by this golf course. The annual tradition of watching the course win begins tomorrow.
The BTN U.S. Open Model Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Shinnecock:
Majors: We included an SG: Total in majors weight in there this week at 16%
Who does this favor? Top 5 SG in Majors since 2023 are Scottie, Rory, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau
OTT: We’re using two OTT metrics this week… standard SG: OTT at 20% paired with Distance from the Edge of Fairway at an additional 10%
Who does this favor? Top 5 SG: OTT over their last 30 rounds since 2024 are Bryson, Rory, Niklas Norgaard, Gary Woodland, and Neal Shipley . The top 5 players who hit it closest to the center of the fairway are Russell Henley, Ben Kohles, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, and Matt Fitzpatrick
APP: We’re focusing on the longer approach shots with a 15% weight on SG: APP from 175-250
Who does this favor? Players that pop in this category over their last 36 rounds since 2024 are Joaquin Niemann, Niklas Norgaard, Ben Kohles, Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, and Alex Fitzpatrick
ARG: We’ve included generic scrambling at a 12% weight this week to handle the inevitable missed greens from the field
Who does this favor? Players that are up and down machines: Andrew Putnam, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cam Young
Putting: We’re focusing on Bent/Poa and Bent greens this week and are applying a combination of filtered, standard SG: Putting at 10% with an additional 5% weight on SG: Putting between 5-10 feet.
Who does this favor? Players that excel in that 5-10 feet range on Bent/Poa and Bent greens: Jacksoin Koivun, Sam Burns, Alex Noren, Taylor Montgomery and Bryson DeChambeau
Bogey Avoidance: We’ve included bogey avoidance at a 12% weight this week to wrap everything up. Pars are king at the United States Open.
Who does this favor? Players that are allergic to bogeys: Scottie, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Silverman, Cam Young, Tom Kim and Bud Cauley
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy & Scottie Scheffler, both scoring a perfect 10. Can’t say we’re surprised here, we’re seeing 6 of the top 10 in the world modeling well. Strong in majors, strong in scrambling & avoiding bogeys. We’re in for an exciting weekend!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (10-7-3) 🤼♂️ Collin Morikawa (-120) ✅ over Bryson DeChambeau on DraftKings
New week, new major, and we’re moving on to the United States Open Championship at Shinnecock Hills, where our matchup play is Collin Morikawa over Bryson DeChambeau.
This one is finesse vs. brute force. Bryson can turn golf into a science project with ball speed, protein shakes, and whatever is happening in that lab of his, but Shinnecock may not care what comes off the 3D printer this week. This is a classic U.S. Open setup, and precision still matters.
That’s where Kawa makes sense. In the BTN Matchup Tool, Morikawa has the edge in approach, around the green, fairways hit, greens in regulation, birdies or better, pars, and bogey avoidance. Scrambling should be huge, and Kawa has gained strokes around the green in nine straight starts, while Bryson has lost around the green in four straight.
The BTN Custom Model also puts a premium on approach shots from 125 to 200 yards this week, where Morikawa ranks 12th in the field, and Bryson sits 106th. That’s a massive gap for a course where one bad iron shot can send you into fescue, sand, and deep personal reflection.
Give us the sharper iron player, the improved short game, and Kawa to keep it tidy while Bryson worries about the next YouTube thumbnail, and we head back to the payout window.
Collin Morikawa vs Bryson DeChambeau in the BTN Matchup tool
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There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week, and good luck with your bets!
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