The PGA Tour takes on the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club this week.
We’ve made it to Atlanta. The final event in the FedEx Cup playoffs has arrived for one of the last couple of times! A lot of buzz is going around in the golf world after the new Match play format to wrap the season starting in 2028, but we’ve still got golf to enjoy this week, so let’s calm down. The top 30 players are playing for $40,000,000 and the FedEx Cup. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ East Lake Golf Club has been the longstanding venue for the TOUR Championship, so we have plenty of data on the course from years past. The course plays as a par 70, despite a one year stint as a par 71 in 2024. There’s no -10 head start for the leader either, so everyone starts at even. Last year, Tommy won at -18, and the top 5 were in the -15 range. We expect it to play very similarly to last year, so let’s jump into what the BTN model is focused on this week:
OTT: Fairways are pretty wide here, and players will be taking driver on most par 4s and 5s. The rough is pretty penal, but interestingly quite patchy and inconsistent throughout the course – thick in some spots and not quite as bad in others. With that, some luck will come into play for those missing fairways this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight.
APP: Players will be hitting plenty of shots from the top and bottom of their bag, but not so many mid-irons. The Approach Distribution chart on the Course page is a bit misleading, as most of the 126-175 shots are actually in the 126-150 range. The greens are very sectioned here, so hitting the right section on approach will play a big factor in birdie looks vs. a potential 3-putt. The BTN Model includes SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the fairway at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 180-220 yards from the tee/fairway at an additional 20% weight.
ATG: The zoysia grass around the green at East Lake doesn’t play too difficult. Chipping will come into play for some of the holes that require long-irons in where players will be looking to save par with an up-and-down. The BTN Model includes standard Scrambling as our ATG stat this week at a 15% weight.
Putting: The greens at East Lake are fast with lots of slope. As mentioned in APP, they’re sectioned greens, so most players will be looking at either a birdie attempt or a lag putt depending on their approach shot. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 6-12’ to capture the birdie looks, and 3-putt avoidance to capture lag putting skill.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy . The three-time Tour Championship & FedEx Cup champion being at the top of our list isn’t that surprising. A lot of Americans are in our top 10, let’s enjoy these next 4 days and see who ends up with $40,000,000!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy as the favorite.
Matchup of the Week (15-10-5) 🤼♂️ Tom Kim (-118) ✅ over Adam Scott (-112) on DraftKings
It’s the final tournament of the season, betting interest is hanging on by a thread, and we’ve already locked up a winning record. So let’s try to close this thing the right way with one final trip to the payout window at East Lake.
This week at the TOUR Championship, we’re backing Tom Kim over Adam Scott. In a small 30-man field, the options are a little slim, but the BTN numbers make this one pretty easy for us. Tom Kim beats Scott across the board in the BTN Matchup Tool and checks in 3rd in the overall BTN Custom Model, while Scott sits 27th.
Scott has the experience edge and has played some solid golf lately, but it is August in Atlanta, which means it’s hotter than a Waffle House griddle at 2 a.m. So we’ll ride the hotter current form with Tom Kim and trust the guy showing up stronger in the numbers this week.
Give us Tom Kim to handle the East Lake heat, cash one more ticket, and send us into the offseason with a winning record, a little momentum, and one final stroll to our favorite window. Then, naturally, we’ll celebrate our matchup betting season the only way we know how: a bacon, egg and cheese with hashbrowns scattered, covered, and chunked.
Tom Kim vs. Adam Scott in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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