The PGA Tour takes on the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club this week.
We are entering our final regular season event of the season this week, coming off of back to back American winners under the age of 25. A healthy reminder of how there’s always someone coming for your job on the PGA Tour. The FedEx Cup playoffs begin next week, and it’s the last chance for a number of big names to stick around for some more golf. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.
The Course Blueprint 🗺️ Sedgefield Country Club is a Donald Ross course that plays as a short par 70 with two par 5s and four par 3s. Length is definitely a storyline here as players will be hitting plenty of less-than-driver tee shots; the longer players may be hitting as few as 5 drivers per round. Real separation will be made on the greens as this is a difficult course to putt with fast, sloping greens.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model:
OTT: As mentioned, this is a heavy less-than-driver course; we’re only looking at a 5.2/10 on the bomber’s paradise meter. Accuracy will be much more helpful here as this course presents a severe rough penalty. The BTN Model features Distance from Edge of Fairway this week at 10% weight as well as Driving Accuracy Percentage at an additional 10% weight.
APP: On average, players are hitting 7-8 shots from 125-175 yards at Sedgefield. Wedges and short irons are the name of the game this weekend, and hitting approaches close to the pin is a must due to the difficult greens. The BTN Model features standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, and SG:APP from 100-170 yards for an additional 20% to put a heavy emphasis on approach play.
ATG: Chipping is tough here with the grainy Bermuda grass around the greens. That said, we’re looking at a pretty high GIR rate and reachable par 5s, so top contenders won’t be hitting too many ATG shots. The BTN Model features Scrambling at a 10% weight this week to credit players who can save pars if they miss the green.
Putting: Tough course to putt with quick, sloping greens. Players who aren’t hitting approach shots close to the pin will definitely be staring down 3-putts. The BTN Model features SG:Putt from 6-15’ at a 10% weight to reward players that can make birdies/save pars, and 3-Putt Avoidance from 25’+ at a 10% weight, as those extra strokes will matter.
This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Kohles, Jackson Koivun, Tom Kim, Christian Bezuidenhout, and Zac Blair . Lots of names with a perfect 10 this week. Let’s enjoy the last regular season event of the year!
This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Ben Kohles and a handful of others as the favorites.
Matchup of the Week (13-9-5) 🤼♂️ Ben Kohles (-115) ✅ over Bud Cauley (-114) on DraftKings
New week, same goal: get back in the groove and start building another heater. This week at the Wyndham Championship, we’re backing the red-hot Ben Kohles over Bud Cauley at classic Sedgefield Country Club.
Kohles checks in number one overall in the BTN Custom Model this week, while Cauley sits 47th. That’s a pretty loud gap for a matchup priced essentially as a coin flip.
Bud has certainly had his moments this season, including a win at the RBC Canadian Open, but Kohles’ current run of form feels a little more sustainable right now. He’s been steady, sharp, and checking the boxes we care about in the BTN Matchup Tool.
Course history does not feel like a major separator for either guy, so we’re leaning into the model, the form, and the current profile. Give us Kohles to keep the hot hand rolling, send Bud off for an early Wyndham Rewards checkout, and take us right back to the payout window.
Ben Kohles vs Bud Cauley in the BTN Matchup tool
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Best of luck this week!
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