The PGA Tour heads to Palm Springs for this week’s American Express (AMEX) in what will be a low scoring affair! With winning scores traditional in the 25+ under par range, expect to see birdies in bunches around all three courses this week. And that wasn’t a typo.. There are THREE courses in play for the AMEX with the pro-am format. That also includes a 54-hole cut which makes this week a bit different than most. Here in this preview, we’ll give you a statistical breakdown heading into lock and a way to take advantage on the Round 1 prop board. Let’s dive in!
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Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties (54 holes)
Returning Champ – Nick Dunlap (-29)
Past Champs – Rahm (2x), Swafford (2x), Si Woo Kim, Landry, Long
Purse – $8.8 million
Fedex Cup points – 500 to winner
Course Details (3 this week):
Players will play all 3 courses before the 54-hole cut is made. After which they will return to the stadium course for round #4. It’s worth noting that the Stadium Course’s greens underwent renovation since last year and are now larger than in the past. On top of the larger size and new pin locations available, they will also be a bit firmer than usual in this first year back.
Pete Dye Stadium Course – Main course
Length – 7,210 yards
Par – 72
Green type – Poa Trivialis Overseed
Avg Green size – 7,000 sq. ft/green
Designer: Pete Dye
# of Bunkers – 90+
# of holes w/ water – 8
Rough – 1.5” Rye overseed
Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par – 72
Length – 7,147 yards
Green type – Poa Trivialis Overseed
Avg Green size – 5,500 sq. ft/green
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
# of Bunkers – 90+
# of holes w/ water – 6
Rough – 1.5” Rye OS + 2” Bermudagrass
La Quinta CC
Par – 72
Length – 7,060 yards
Green type – Poa trivialis/ryegrass overseed
Avg Green size – 4,773 sq. ft/green
Designer: Lawrence Hughes
# of Bunkers – 82
# of holes w/ water – 7
Rough – Ryegrass overseed 1.75”
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. With the renovations since last year it may be a bit harder in 2025 across the board. Especially with GIR stats.
2024 Prop Based averages at All 3 Courses:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw #s so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get! La Quinta CC + the Nicklaus Tournament courses didn’t undergo any renovations so these stat averages should be pretty accurate for this year.
Approach distribution: (Stadium Course)
The approach distribution at the Stadium Course skews a bit shorter than most PGA Tour tracks, with a ton of looks coming from 175 and in.
How to model at the AMEX
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
#1: Distance from Edge of Fairway
- All 3 courses this week aren’t particularly long so it’s more so about driving accuracy than distance at the AMEX
#2: SG Approach (Last 40 rounds)
- Approach baseline is always an important statistic to consider on tour and this week is no different
#3: SG Around the Green (Last 40 Rounds)
- With the firmer greens at the Stadium Course this year ARG could come a bit more into play but its still not a massive factor at a birdie fest like this
#4: SG Putting: Poa Overseed
- The greens are overseeded Poa Trivialis at 2 of the courses (Poa/Rye at La Quinta) so we can import stats from other events that have similar agronomy to find putting poppers
#5: SG Approach: 80-150 yards (fairway cut)
- Most of your scoring looks this week (outside of the par 5s) will come in this approach range, setting up birdie looks is going to be key to get to -25 to -30
#6: SG Putting: 10-20 ft
- Speaking of birdies, the other end is actually cashing in. The 10-20 ft range will be especially worn out this week
#7: Birdie or better %
- Regular ole birdie or better percentage is also worth looking at as well. Getting to -25+ requires a lot of aggression and making sure we target those sort of players this week is key
Comp Courses:
- I do like to look at comp courses most weeks, but with the 3 course setup its a bit tough.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Conditions look absolutely IDEAL for Round #1. Not only will winds be low for almost the entire day, but temperature will also be very comfortable after 9am local time. The stat averages from 2024 at La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament courses should be pretty accurate for Thursday but the Stadium Course could be a bit tougher after renovation as we mentioned before.
Round 1 Free Play
Here’s a Prize Picks slip I’m taking for a 2.75x payout for Round 1’s action. La Quinta CC is historically the easiest course at the AMEX and with the low winds I’m targeting two players on that course.
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better
- Dunlap is the returning champ at the AMEX and was the #12 BOB% player on ALL the tour in 2024. Though he can be a bit loose off the tee and needs to improve his bogey avoidance, he has no issues when it comes to scoring. La Quinta CC played to easier than a -4 scoring average in 2024 and had a BOB average at 5.80/round, and though it might be slightly harder this time around if its not as soft, it should still play to a -3 to -4 scoring average and I’d expect to see around a 5.5 BOB/round average at least. He’d have to gain about a half birdie to the field which is reasonable given the course history and his form heading in with the top 10 at Sony last week.
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes
- Eric Cole is an under on strokes I like from La Quinta CC. The scoring average was sub 68 last year and even if it isn’t quite as soft this year, Cole would likely need to gain about a stroke to the field max to cover. With his hot form heading in, having finished top 16 in 4 of his last 6 starts on tour, and ideal conditions Thursday, this was a solid under to mix in even if there wasn’t an exact line for comparison. Though Dunlap is down at 68 strokes on PP he was jucied -145 for his under at 68.5, and given that Cole is a more consistent player than Dunlap I project him even lower strokes wise. So even without a direct data point for comp, he’s likely solid value for his under on books.
This pays .25 units less than usual because of the correlation, but with the low winds going after the low scores is warranted in my opinion.
That’s all for this week’s course and prop preview! Let’s take advantage of the 3 course setup and have ourselves a week. Best of luck out there, and let’s cash out on the free slip!
