This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational marks signature event #4 of the year and combines an elite field and tough golf course into an all out boxing match. When winds kick up, the course throws its haymakers. The par 5s give players a chance to fight back at times but with the winning score more often than not in the single digit under par range, the course tends to win out.
Here in this preview we get you ready for the action this week including a full stat breakdown of Bay Hill and what to expect, as well as a game plan for attacking the Round 1 Prop boards. Let’s get into it!
2025 Free Play Record:
Before we go through the details for Bay Hill, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
Sentry 1-1 (-1 unit)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌
Sony 1-1 (-1 unit)
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️
AMEX 2-0 (+1.75 units)
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Farmers 2-0 (+2.24 units)
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Pebble 1-1 (-1 unit)
Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️
Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌
WM Phoenix Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
JJ Spaun Over 12.5 GIR❌
Akshay Bhatia Over 7.5 FIR✔️
Genesis 2-0 (+1.7 units)
Hoge O 73.5 Strokes✔️
C Bez O 73.5 Strokes✔️
Mexico Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
Fox Under 69 Strokes✔️
Rai Under 13.5 GIR❌
Cognizant Classic 2-0 (+1.75 units)
Jordan Spieth Under 69.5 Strokes✔️
Luke Clanton Under 69.5 Strokes✔️
Hit rate: 13-5 year-to-date (72.22% hit rate!!!)
Profit/Loss: +2.44 units year to date
Our guys Luke and Jordan came through for us last week to push us even further into the profit for the year and also put our hit rate over 70% on props for the season!
Tournament details:
Field size – 72
Cut – Top 50 and ties (+ anyone within 10 of the lead)
Returning Champ – Scottie Scheffler (-15)
Past Champs – Kitayama, Scheffler, DeChambeau, Hatton, Molinari, McIlroy
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
Bay Hill Club + Lodge
Par – 72
Length – 7,466 yards
Green type – Tifeagle Bermudagrass
Designer – Dick Wilson (Arnold Palmer renovation)
# of Bunkers – 84
# of holes w/ water – 9
Rough – 3” Rye Overseed (will be closer to 4 by Thursday)
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Bay Hill.
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution for Bay Hill is pretty flat, with a little more emphasis from 175-225 than most courses on tour.
How to model at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG: Off the Tee
- A balanced off the tee profile is preferred around Bay Hill with the length AND water in play. Being able to hit it long and straight will be heavily rewarded, just like at major championships.
SG: Approach
- Iron play is always a keystone of any shots gained model, and this week is no different.
Approach: 175-225
- The 175 to 225 range though is where we can put some extra emphasis. That part of the bag will be utilized a bit more than usual at this course.
SG: Around the Green
- With under 11 GIRs hit/round, around the green comes into play for even the best ball strikers. If the wind kicks up, it becomes an even bigger emphasis.
SG: Putting
- The greens at Bay Hill are tricky which sort of flattens the playing field a bit putting wise. It still matters and you can separate from 4 to 12 feet, but it’s not the most important stat.
Bogey Avoidance
- Bogey avoidance is always the name of the game around the API, with a winning score in the -5 to -10 or so range.
Comp Courses
- BTN doesn’t always use comps in their model, but I am looking at Muirfield Village (Memorial), Quail Hollow Club (Truist/Wells Fargo), + Torrey Pines South (Farmers) as comps. They all play difficult, feature deep rough and are major championship level venues.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing tomorrow
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Tomorrow looks absolutely brutal weather wise. Winds will be in the 13-17 mph sustained range with gusts near 30 mph at times. That combined with cooler temperatures could lead to some tough scoring conditions.
Round 1 Free Play
Our Free Play is going to be a 2.7x slip on Underdog with a couple fades! It’s best to enter on UD as opposed to a site like Prize Picks as the payout will be 0.2 units higher on this site with the favorable correlation multiplier.
Collin Morikawa Over 71.5 Strokes
- Collin has missed the cut at this event twice in a row, and with the tough conditions is a fade I’m eyeing up. He tees off in the morning which is when the winds will be at their apex, and with his lack of off the tee distance and short game with this deep rough, he could be in for a rough start. Anything even par or worse would be a hit for us and considering I’m projecting for somewhere around a +1.5 to +2 scoring average, even 2 SG round could be an over.
Xander Schauffele Over 71.5 Strokes
- Xander has a PM tee time which could be slightly helpful, but he’s coming in off a lengthy break from golf and could show some rust early this week. He had the well documented rib issue he’s dealing with and his full swings on the TGL match this week weren’t great. His chips and putting looked solid, but this course is much more about the driving and long irons and that’s where Schauffele struggled a bit. I think he’d more than take an even par round with the projected conditions in his first round back and perhaps even something +1 or +2 as that could be around the field average.
Let’s make it another cash! Best of luck with all your exposure.
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
