This week is going to be a real treat on tour! Not only do we get a signature field, world #1 Scottie Scheffler returning AND Spieth back from his wrist injury.. But its Pebble Beach week as well! On top of being one of the most visually stunning properties IN THE WORLD, the golf links is a unique test that many look forward to each season. Here in this preview we’ll be familiarizing you with the setup this week including a look at the tournament format, course details, stat averages, modeling, Round 1 weather and of course – our free play for this week. Let’s dive in!

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Before we go through the details for Pebble, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.

2025 Free Play Record:

Sentry 1-1 ❌ (-1 unit)

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
• Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌

Sony 1-1 ❌ (-1 unit)

• JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
• Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️

AMEX 2-0 ✔️ (+1.75 units)

• Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
• Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️

Farmers 2-0 ✔️ (+2.24 units)

• Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
• Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️

Hit rate: 6-2 (75%)

Profit/Loss: +1.99 units year to date

After the tough 1-1s to start the year, we’ve gone 2-0 the last two weeks to put us at just under +2 units gained so far this year. Let’s keep building on that going forward!

Tournament details:

Field size –  80 players

Cut – No cut

Returning Champ – Wyndham Clark (-17, 54 holes)

Past Champs – Justin Rose, Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger, Nick Taylor, Phil Mickelson

Purse – $20million

Course Details (2 this week):

We have two courses in play once again, with Pebble Beach Golf Links being the “main” course that will be used for 3 of the 4 rounds

Pebble Beach Golf Links

Length – 6,972 yards

Par – 72

Green type – Poa Annua

Avg Green size – 3,500 sq. ft/green

Designer – Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919) 

# of Bunkers – 116

Rough – 2-3” Rye/Poa

Spyglass Hill

Par – 72

Length – 7,041 yards

Green type – Poa Annua

Avg Green size – 5,000 sq. ft/green

Designer – Robert Trent Jones Sr. (1966) 

# of Bunkers – 62

# of holes w/ water – 4

Rough – 3” Rye/Poa

Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)

Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

2024 Prop Based averages:

If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get! Keep in mind that I expect scoring to be a bit harder to come by in 2025 with firmer conditions.

Approach distribution: (Pebble Beach GL)

We have a pretty balanced iron distribution around Pebble Beach, but it’s worth noting that the shots from 175-225 are especially important as it’s the one bucket weighed more than the pga tour average.

How to model at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.

 #1: SG Off the Tee

• Betthenumber is using regular SG Off the Tee this week as both driving accuracy AND distance are rewarded. While we’ve seen some shorter hitters have success here in the past, now that we have a signature field making sure to properly boost some of the elite tier bombers is a good idea as they figure to mix into contention

#2: SG Approach

• Iron play is always something to build around on tour, as it’s the most consistent stat from week to week and day to day. BTN is using the last 40 round sample size for their analysis (same with OTT)

#3: APP 175-225

• As we pointed out during the approach distribution section, the 175-225 range is utilized more than usual around the Pebble Beach Pro-AM so looking for poppers in that proximity bucket is useful

#4: SG: Around the Green

• While the GIR average is typically close to 13/round around Pebble, the firm conditions could hold that in check for 2025. If so, saving par is going to be a factor for those in contention

#5: SG Putt Poa 4-16 ft

• WIth Poa greens, targeting players who have had success on the surface is something to consider. When looking at make rates in the past the 4-16 ft range is also especially important this week

#6: Par 5 Scoring

• Though Pebble isn’t overly imposing length wise, it’s still a par 72 with 4 opportunities on the par 5s each round. And even Spyglass has 4 on the card as well

#7: Bogey Avoidance 

• With the firmer conditions this year, I think we could see more bogies made than usual. Especially if the wind were to kick up at any stage of the week

Comp Courses:

• For comps, I’m using 3 of the stronger field events from 2024 that were played at shorter courses. Thus we can get a similar strength of field while maintaining some of the key ball striking stats from venue to venue. Those include: Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage), TPC River Highlands (Travelers) and TPC Southwind (Fedex St Jude).

Round 1 Game Plan

Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing tomorrow

Thursday’s weather forecast:

Conditions look calm wind wise, but mild temperatures will be a bit of a factor Thursday. While it’s not atypical to have temperatures in the 50s this time of year, it does make the ball fly a bit shorter. As a result, some of the longer par 3/4s could pose some issues.

Other than the forecast for Round 1, course reports have also stated that conditions are firmer/faster than in the past. Greens in regulation could be a bit harder to come by in 2025 and scoring in general may get a bit harder to come by as well. Heading into round 1 last year they got over an inch of rain, so scoring was about as low as possible last year.

Round 1 Free Play 

Our Round 1 free play is going to be for a 2.7x payout over on Underdog. Both lines ARE available on Prize Picks, but the payout would only be 2.5x so it’s best to stick to Underdog for this slip.

Use code GSLUKE when signing up for Underdog for a deposit match if it’s your first time playing there!

Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes

• It pains me to fade Sepp, especially after he cashed an outright for me at 60-1 last time out, but Spyglass hill could be tough sledding with the firmer conditions this year. Though winds won’t be as much of a factor, Spyglass is usually more protected anyways and the bigger contributor to scoring is typically how soft the course is. With the lack of rain and 3 inch rough at Spyglass, I think it will play harder even with almost all the studs on it for day 1. A scoring average near par is about what I’m expecting so even with Straka’s form I like this over with the push equity at -1. Course fit wise I don’t like Spyglass for Sepp as his short game can be a bit suspect at times, and the greens at Spy are amongst the most difficult that players face all year. On books Sepp is also up at 71.5 so even though he’s juiced under there’s a .5 discrepancy on this spot

Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes

• I also will be fading Billy for round 1 despite him being up at 71.5 strokes. Unlike Sepp who’s coming in with excellent form, Billy is on the other side of that spectrum, having lost strokes to the field in 4 of his last 5 world wide starts. With him not having any experience at this course over the last 5 years and losing almost 2 strokes per round over his last 12 measured rounds, this was a spot I’m willing to fade with anything even par or worse being a hit. If the scoring average is around even par there’s value here but I think there’s even a chance it plays a half stroke or so over par with the firm turf conditions (even without wind). On books he’s at 71.5 and -120/-125 for the over so there isn’t a ton of line value here, but I personally am projecting for harder conditions than the books are. 

Let’s cash out on our round 1 slip and for all our exposure this week! Make sure to join the Betthenumber site for course analytics and tools to grind out some value. Code GSLUKE when checking out for a discount!

On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)