The tour heads to Utah and Black Desert Resort for the 2nd time this week. Although the event name is different in 2025, the course is the same, and we have plenty of data to work with this time around.
Here in this course and prop preview we’ll be going over everything you need to know before betting at the Bank of Utah Championship. That’ll include course analytics per betthenumber, course modeling, a weather report, and a prop slip for Thursday’s golf. Let’s hop on in!
Baycurrent Classic Prop recap:
Our slip from the Baycurrent went 2-0 once again, this time for a 2.7x payout! That’s back to back full cashes to add solidly to the bankroll.
Wyndham Clark Over 69.5 Strokes
- The scoring average ended up +1.04 for Round 1, or a whole 72.04 strokes, meaning Clark had to gain over 3 strokes to the field to go under this line. That’s far too much of an ask for someone who has closer to a 0.5 SG baseline over the last couple months.
Garrick Higgo Over 69.5 Strokes
- Garrick was also a solid fade at 69.5 but made us sweat a bit as his live score wasn’t being counted correctly. I went to bed thinking he had gone under only to find in the morning that he actually shot an even par 71. The volunteers must have wanted to mess with us but we cashed nonetheless!
Season-Long Hit rate: 46-28-2 year-to-date (62.2% hit rate)
- For the year we are now sitting at over a 62% hit rate. Ridiculous stuff on props that are priced at 50-50 for the most part. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling!
Tournament details:
Field size – 132 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – McCarty -23
Past Champs – Last year was the first iteration of this event
Purse – $6 million
Course Details:
Par – 71
Length – 7,421 yards
Avg Green Size – around 7,000 sq. ft/green
Green type – Bentgrass
Designer – Tom Weiskopf / Phil Smith (2023)
Rough – 2” Kentucky Bluegrass
Stat Averages from last year at Black Desert Resort:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from last year at Black Desert Resort
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
Driving Bias:
Based on the 2024 data, Black Desert Resort ranks as a 9/10 in “Bomber’s Paradise”, which makes this one of the more distance heavy courses of the year. Players 20 yards longer than average saw a 2.29 SG/round boost last year, which equates to over 9 shots for the week.
Approach distribution:
Two thirds of the approach shots came between 125-225 yards last year, with 50% of them coming from 100-175 yards if we narrow that down even further. Focusing on mid to short irons is advisable at a course like this although the elevation makes the course play shorter than at sea level.
How to model at the 2025 Bank of Utah Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Bank of Utah Championship and find the top players of the week, BTN is using 8 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
“Core” SG Metrics (OTT, APP, ATG, PUTT)
- Form is always important to consider in a SG model and this week is no different. BTN is using recent form metrics to see who comes in hot.
Approach 100-175 Yards
- Like we mentioned earlier, the 100-175 yard range accounts for about half of the approaches so adding emphasis there is a good idea. It gives us an idea of who fits the course the best with their irons.
Par 5 Scoring Average
- The par 5s are where about half of the birdie production came from last year, and eagles are a real possibility for bombers. To get to -20 or better players will have to take care of these all week.
Birdie Average
- At a birdie fest like this, we need players who are aggressive and have legit birdie or better upside. By looking at the top scorers heading in we can get a sense for who has the ability to go low.
Driving Distance
- There are at least two drivable par 4s and 3 reachable par 5s at this course, so having power is going to be rewarded. And at elevation that distance is only exaggerated even more.
When we put it all together, the top 5 for this week are Kurt Kitaya, Taylor Montgomery, Cameron Champ, Michael Thorbjornsen and Matt Wallace. A good mix of bombers, hot putters, and birdie or better gainers.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
The weather for Thursday looks pretty mild overall, and conditions should be relatively scorable. A potential mid morning shower could be somewhat notable, as well as a little bit more wind during the PM wave. I don’t project that it’ll have too much of an impact in either direction and I expect scoring to be pretty similar to what we got in 2024.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our round 1 free play is going to be on the Prize Picks side, and pays 2.75x if we go 2-0 on these props. It pays a bit less than the standard 3x because we are going for correlation on these two in what should be relatively scorable conditions.
Taylor Montgomery Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
- Montgomery ranks #6 on the pga tour in BOB% and with the 4.7 average there’s a lot of value on this sort of lean. He tees off in the PM when winds are supposed to become a little more of a factor, but by taking a BOB lean where we don’t have to worry about bogey production we are protected from that aspect a bit. He needs to gain 0.3 BOBs to last year’s average, and considering his elite ability in the category and his elite putting on bentgrass, I love his chances. He comes into this week with some of the best form as well, gaining 1.65 SG/round over his last 12 measured rounds. Some of those were KFT and lower tier events but at least he’s been playing solid recently regardless of what tour its on. He doesn’t have a line to comp to on books, but mid tier players like Hodges, Meissner, + Ghim are -150 to -165 for their overs so if Taylor had a line I’m assuming he’d also be heavily favored to go over
Rico Hoey Over 14.5 Greens in Regulation
- Hoey is the #2 green in regulation percentage player on tour and even ranked #16 the year prior when he was still getting his footing on tour, so I love this sort of lean for Thursday. The GIR average was about 13.65/round last year, and with low winds expected tomorrow morning he’ll have an ideal tee time for this sort of lean. Last year he hit 14+ greens in all 4 rounds, and went over in 2/4, averaging 14.75 GIRs/round. Not an elite hit rate in his one year sample size, but pretty solid considering he only finished T21. This week he’s in the top 7 of the outright winning odds and is a much better player than in 2024 (hence why he’s #2 in GIRS instead of #16 now), so I like his chances to improve on those results. On Dk he’s -140 for his over, so there’s also solid line value on this spot with all of the juice in our favor. Add his elite ranking in the category and the ideal AM conditions, and we have solid line value that’s attackable.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
