The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda for this week’s tour stop, Port Royal Golf Course, the shortest on all of the schedule. It presents a one of a kind test for players that gets further complicated when the winds kick up. And with some breezy conditions forecasted, that’s exactly what we are going to get here in 2025!
In this prop and betting preview I’ll be getting you ready for all of your exposure, including any pick ‘em bets on sites like Underdog Fantasy and Prize Picks. That’ll include course details, analytics via BetTheNumber, modeling, a weather report and our Round 1 Free Play. So without further adieu, let’s get into this thing!
WWT Championship Prop recap:
Our prop slip from last week was as ugly as they get, and the first 0-2 in a LONG time on this blog. Not what we wanted, but we aren’t going to win them all unfortunately. We’ll see what we can do this week!
Season-Long Hit rate: 47-31-2 year-to-date (60.3% hit rate)
Tournament details:
Field size – 120 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Rafael Campos (-19)
Past Champs – Villegas, Power, Herbert, Gay, Todd
Purse – $6 million
Course Details:
Par – 71
Length – 6,828 yards
Avg Green Size – around 8,000 sq. ft/green
Green type – 419 Bermudagrass
Designer – Robert Trent Jones Sr. (1971)
Rough – 2” Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from the last three years at Port Royal:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from the last three years at Port Royal. Without shot link the data is a bit limited compared to most weeks, but we still have quite a bit to work with.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
How to model at the 2025 Bermuda Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Bermuda Championship and find the top players of the week, BTN is using 6 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Total driving is what we want to prioritize at Port Royal, as it’s a short course but does have spots for bombers to attack. Precision and accuracy does play well here, but so does bomb and gouge if executed properly.
APP 120-170 Yards
- Iron play is always important, but the wedges are critical to narrow down on this week. With so many forced layups off the tee, almost half of the iron shots this week will come in this range.
SG Around the Green
- Chipping is more of a factor here than at the last two events. Especially on the par 5s or potentially drivable par 4s for bomber type players. But with the wind players will be missing more greens this year anyways.
SG Putting
- Putting has been the #1 correlator to success at Port Royal over the years and this year should be no different. Form heading in should be prioritized in your models.
Birdie or Better Percentage
- Birdie or better firepower matters at these fall series events, and with so many short par 4s players will still be posting birdies in bunches despite the wind.
Bogey Avoidance
- With windy conditions expected for much of the week Bogey Avoidance will be more of a factor than we’ve seen recently.
When putting together all those key stats, the top 5 in the BTN model this week are Pierceson Coody, Victor Perez, Rico Hoey, Patrick Fishburn and Cameron Champ.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRDPS model via windy.com)
Weather is going to be a big part of the Thursday slate, with sustained winds that are 20+ mph and wind gusts at nearly 30mph. This course is coastal and is exposed to the wind in most cases, so the scoring will be impacted even more so than usual. While it’s hard to say exactly where it’ll end up, something even or over par is reasonable to expect. They’ll try and make some pins easier and move tees up, but there’s only so much they can do to combat conditions like this. In similar conditions last year during Round 4 the course played +0.76 and had only a 3.27 BOB/average per round. Those metrics could be rather useful for our analysis tomorrow!
Round 1 Free Play:
Our Free Play for Round 1 is going to be this 2 leg on underdog for a 2.58x payout. The multiplier isn’t ideal, but with conditions and the projections available this is the best way to attack round 1 in my opinion
Luke Clanton Under 4.5 Birdies or Better
- Sorry bud, but I have to do it.. He might be one of my favorite players on tour but this projection is too optimistic for the conditions at hand. With the projected field average in the 3.25-3.5 range he’d have to gain 1.5-1.75 BOBs to the field to cover which is too much to ask for someone who ranks outside the top 65 on tour in the category. On DK he’s -135 under this number so the juice is in our favor too.
Matti Schmid Under 4.5 Birdies or Better
- I’m also fading Matti who has a PM wave tee time as his higher ball flight could be problematic in the wind. He ranks better in the BOB% category than Luke at #16 on tour but is a fade I still like just as much because of the course fit angle. It’s a more positional course, and with the winds being up I don’t think bombers will be able to be as aggressive off the tee this year. Having to gain 1.5-1.75 BOBs to the field to cover is asking a lot from anyone, and is why we are on this under. He’s also -135 for the under on DK making this slight line value in our favor.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
