The PGA Tour heads down to the Lone Star state for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge! The week after a major can sometimes be a bit of a “hangover” for some, but the field this week is a bit better than expected. Plus, Colonial Country Club is an absolute gem that got EVEN better after the full renovation in 2023.
Here in this preview I’ll get you ready for this week, with all of your Prop + Betting exposure. We’ll go through the course details, some advanced analytics, modeling, a weather report + of course, our Round 1 Free Play. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Mackenzie Hughes U 11.5 GIR ✔️
Patrick Cantlay O 3.5 BOB ❌
Season-Long Hit rate: 24-16 year-to-date (60% hit rate)
Our Hughes fade was about as sweat free as it gets, with him going under within his first 11 holes played Thursday, but Cantlay gave us a bit of trouble on his BOB over. He couldn’t buy a putt for his life, and though some of the other AM guys had solid rounds Round 1, he was not one of those to be so fortunate. The result is us going 1-1 on our slip which wasn’t what we wanted, but we gave it a good go. This time we’ll try and make it 2-0.
Tournament details:
Field size – 135 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Davis Riley (-14)
Past Champs – Grillo, Burns, Kokrak, Berger
Purse – $9.5 million
Course Details:
Colonial Country Club
Par – 70
Length – 7,289 yards
Green type – 007XL Bentgrass
Designer – Bredemus + Maxwell, Renovated by Hanse in 2023
# of Bunkers – 64
# of holes w/ water – 6
Rough – 2.5” Tiftuf Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at Colonial CC:
Here are the stat averages from the last 3 years combined at Colonial CC. As you can see, hitting fairways and greens around here isn’t as easy as one would imagine with the lack of length or long rough here. But design is the reason for the difficulty with all of the awkward angles presented at this course.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
To further narrow down our research and make it actionable prop wise, here are the raw averages for the field at last year’s event. This sample size is the most pertinent to this week as it was after the renovation occurred and gives a sense of some of the impact of the changes.
Driving Bias:
Colonial isn’t a “big hitters ballpark”, and nothing illustrates that point more than the course only ranking a 3.5/10 in the Bomber’s Paradise rankings. Driving distance is still somewhat rewarded at 1.2 SG/round for those who are 20 yards longer than average, but that is below its typical rate on tour. And on the flip side, the shorter hitters don’t see as much penalty for their lack of distance with only 0.64 SG lost for those 10-25 yards shorter off the tee.
Approach distribution:
Two things really stand out about Colonial when we take a look at the approach distribution. First off, there’s a TON of shots that come from 126-175 yards. In fact, over 8 per round which is by far the most utilized we’ll ever see this range. On top of the extra emphasis with the mid to short irons, the rough penalty around this track is extremely penal despite it only being 2.5 inches long. That can be attributed to both the sticky Bermudagrass rough, as well as the tree lined aspect to the course that makes angles into the green very awkward at times.
How to model at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving is tough around Colonial with the tight driving cooradors, but if you can keep the ball in play and hit fairways there’s a good opportunity to gain strokes to the field. For shorter hitters that will be to keep the ball in play all day, but for longer hitters being aggressive and cutting corners can work if executed properly so focusing on both accuracy AND power simultaneously is the ideal way to approach this event.
SG Approach
- Iron play is always a pillar of our SG analysis, and this week is no different. When driving gets tough a lot of times these tracks become “2nd shot golf courses”, and with the tiny 5,000 square foot greens that is only more so the case.
Approach 125-200 Yards
- If we want to narrow down the approach stats to best suit this course, focusing our efforts on the 125-200 yard bucket is preferred. Players will have 9+ shots per round in that range, sometimes close to 10/11 for the shorter hitters, and being able to separate yourself from the field here could prove fruitful.
SG Around the Green
- Even the best ball strikers will be missing greens this week with how tiny the complexes are and them still retaining some firmness after the renovation, so ARG play cannot be ignored. While it’s never going to be the main factor we look at, as missing greens to begin with is a sub ideal situation to put yourself in, but it’s a part of this week’s process with the type of course at hand.
SG Putting (Bentgrass)
- The surfaces around Colonial are pure Bentgrass, and finding players who are comfortable on the surface is something that BTN and myself are incorporating into the model.
Scrambling Percentage
- On top of regular SG ARG, scrambling percentage is another way for us to find better “grinders”.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Per the HRRR model, the morning wave tomorrow looks to be getting really solid scoring conditions. Winds look to be mild at worst until about 11 am local time, with temperatures remaining comfortable as well. While it doesn’t get too windy in the afternoon, winds do kick up to the 10-15 mph sustained range and it could get gusty towards the very end of play. That combined with higher temperatures could make for slightly harder scoring conditions, but I wouldn’t expect to see anything drastic unfold. A scoring average near +0.5 to +0.75 is what I’m expecting for the day, with perhaps a 0.25 stroke advantage towards the AM wave.
Round 1 Free Play
And now to find some prop value! Our free play pays 3x over on Prize Picks combining a strokes fade along with an over on BOB.
Aldrich Potgieter Over 70 Strokes
- I love Aldrich and will play him for positive stance plays plenty this year, but NOT at this sort of course that completely takes away his best asset, his driver. He will only be able to hit the big stick on maybe 7-9 holes total, and even then he won’t be able to generate a massive edge as the missed fairway penalty is substantial and the doglegs make hitting the short stuff tough if you bomb and gouge it. With the scoring average over par the last couple years, even a slightly above average day (even par) would push, with anything at or worse than the field average being an over for us. As such, I’ll mix this in even though he’s one of my favorite up and comers on tour.
Mackenzie Hughes Over 3 BOB
- On the other side I like this over on Mackenzie Hughes birdies who is one of the guys I played for a placement bet this week (top 10 bet). His ball striking is rounding into form lately, gaining strokes off the tee and on approach which is the exact opposite of how he’s come into this event the last few years, with him typically gaining putting and losing with the ball striking stats. Now that his swing is in order and he gets to putt on Bentgrass greens that he has LOVED for his career, there’s a confluence of positive factors that could lead to a big week here. His best finish at Colonial is a T8 finish, and he’s setting up to try and potentially improve on that this week. At 3 he needs to gain 0.2 BOB to last year’s average to push, which considering the calm forecast for Thursday AM feels more than reasonable. With anything better being an over for us.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
