After last week’s team madness, we’re back to a “regular” stroke play event at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson! TPC Craig Ranch plays host to the PGA Tour in what will be a bit of a “new look” with the course this year after some renovations.
Here in this preview we’ll cover the changes to the venue, how they’ll impact play, as well as the usual course details, modeling, weather + our Round 1 Prop game plan for all your betting exposure. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
2025 Free Play Record:
Zurich Classic
Taylor/Hadwin U 65.5 Strokes
EVR/CBez U 65.5 Strokes
Hit rate: 20-14 year-to-date (58.8% hit rate)
The course read for Round 1 was spot on last week, our guys just played subpar golf and hooked us in both cases. The field average in best ball was about 64 strokes so you would think groups like these could have at least matched that number, but things aren’t always going to cooperate for us!
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Pendrith (-23)
Past Champs – Day, KH Lee (x2), Kang, Wise
Purse – $9.9 million
Course Details:
TPC Craig Ranch
Par – 71
Length – 7,569 yards
Green type – Bentgrass
Designer – Weiskopf (2004)
# of Bunkers – 83
# of holes w/ water – 13
Rough – 3.25” Ryegrass
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at TPC Craig Ranch:
Here are the stat averages from the last 3 years combined at TPC Craig Ranch. They should give us a good idea for the baseline at this course, but renovations are going to change things up a bit going forward.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we just look at last year, and focus on the categories most relevant for prop betting, here are the averages for the field. Keep in mind that some course changes could impact play this year and make things a hair harder.
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution already skewed longer than usual before renovations, with 150 yards added to the course that is going to be even more so the case this year.
How to model at the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
“Core 4” SG Categories
- The 4 “regular” SG categories are all included in this week’s model, which is typical for most tour events. TPC Craig Ranch is a pretty balanced course all things considered and we’ve seen a wide variety of skill sets get it done before
PUTT: 8-15’
- Putting from 8 to 15 feet has been a key separator on the greens at the Byron Nelson, so focusing on that range could prove fruitful this week
BOB%
- Birdie or better percentage is key at events with a low winning score, and with 20+ under par winning here you need players with the firepower to go low
APP 175-250 yards
- Iron play from 175-250 yards is going to be utilized a ton this week, and even more than usual after they added 150 yards to the course since 2024
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Weather looks pretty mild for Thursday’s action, perhaps with a bit of wind picking up in the afternoon, but the bigger factor for Round 1 is the over 1.5-2 inches of rain the area is due to get today. The course adding 150 yards will add some difficulty in spots, and the overseed may be a bit harder to chip off of than the Zoysiagrass that was here before, but lift clean and place and dartboards for greens could make up for that plus some. That being said, I’m projecting for around the same sort of averages we had last year with conditions nullifying some of the changes to the course setup.
Round 1 Free Play
Our free play for Thursday pays 2.75x over on the Prize Picks side with some correlation between these two spots!
Eric Cole Over 4.5 Birdies or better
- Eric is -165 for his over at this number on DK and the last few years has ranked as a well above average BOB% player. With dart boards for greens after them getting a TON of rain today I like a second shot specialist like him to find some success as well. The only issue conditions wise is the added length they added on 6 of the 18 holes, but with how soft the course is even long irons are going to have a chance to stop close to the hole. With the BOB average at 4.6/round last year, this over is a spot I’ll still mix in even after the changes.
Beau Hossler Over 4.5 Birdies or better
- Beau doesn’t have a line for comparison, but like Cole would likely be -150+ for his over on books if he had a line. The last few seasons he’s been a well above average BOB% player and on a soft course he’s also a player I like to go low. His iron play could be better with the form, but the soft green should make his job a bit easier tomorrow and given he’s one of the best bentgrass putters in the world (gains over 0.5 SG putting per round on the surface) he’ll be in good shape to cover as long as he’s setting up a decent amount of birdie looks.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
