The PGA Tour heads to my backyard for this week’s tour stop, Palm Beach Gardens, for the 2025 Cognizant Classic! It’s one of my favorite weeks of the year having boots on the ground the entire week, so look out for me on the course if you guys are in the area yourselves. That being said, I am very familiar with PGA National and I’m super excited to get into all of our exposure this week. Here in our preview, we’ll make you experts on the venue and also go through a game plan to crush our Round 1 prop exposure. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
Before we go through the details for PGA National, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
2025 Free Play Record:
Sentry 1-1 (-1 unit)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌
Sony 1-1 (-1 unit)
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️
AMEX 2-0 (+1.75 units)
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Farmers 2-0 (+2.24 units)
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Pebble 1-1 (-1 unit)
Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️
Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌
WM Phoenix Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
JJ Spaun O 12.5 GIR❌
Akshay Bhatia O 7.5 FIR✔️
Genesis 2-0 (+1.7 units)
Hoge O 73.5 Strokes✔️
C Bez O 73.5 Strokes✔️
Mexico Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
Fox U 69 Strokes✔️
Rai U 13.5 GIR❌
Hit rate: 11-5 year-to-date (68.75% hit rate)
Profit/Loss: +0.69 units year to date
We had a tough run out with Rai having a spike iron day, but Fox did come through on the other side for anyone who mixed him in elsewhere.
Tournament details:
Field size – 144
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Austin Eckroat (-17)
Past Champs – Kirk, Straka, Jones, Im
Purse – $9.2 million
Course Details:
PGA National – Champion Course
Par – 71
Length – 7,167 yards
Green type – Tifeagle Bermudagrass
Designer – Jack Nicklaus
# of Bunkers – 60
# of holes w/ water – 15
Rough – 2.5” Rye Overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at PGA National. Keep in mind that last year was the first time this course was a par 71 as opposed to a par 70
2025 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get! These are more applicable for this year with the par 71 setup
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution at PGA National skews a lot shorter than we had last week down in Mexico
How to model at the 2025 Cognizant Classic
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee (Last 40 rounds)
- Accuracy is preferred over distance at this course but both aspects are beneficial in certain cases
SG Approach (Last 40 rounds)
- Iron play is always one of the most predictive stats week to week on tour and this course is no exception. I would classify it as a “2nd shot course” so this category is of the utmost importance
SG Around the Green (Bermuda)
- Chipping comes into play when conditions get tough around here which is a possibility if we get some weekend wind
Putting 4-12 feet
- The 4-12 feet putts are key separators per the BTN data and focusing on those sort of putts could prove to be beneficial
Par 3 Scoring
- The par 3s around PGA National are the pivotal holes, with them all playing over par and ranking among the most difficult holes on property. Avoiding water balls and big numbers is key
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Thursday. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing
Thursday’s weather forecast:
As you can see, all the models have it relatively calm for Round 1. That combined with moderate temperatures and some rain in the area this week should make for ideal scoring conditions. Greens will be soft, the ball will be flying close to stock yardages, and I’d expect to see some low scores out there. That being said, it’s still a very tough course and if you don’t have your ball under control there are big numbers too.
Round 1 Free Play
Our free play for Thursday is going to be this slip that pays 2.75x over on Prize Picks!
Jordan Spieth Under 69.5 Strokes
- This will be Jordan’s first competitive round at PGA National but I think it’s a sneaky good fit with his highly favorable ball striking splits on overseed and putting on Bermuda greens. He’s got the short game to take on these tricky green complexes and ARG shots and with a morning tee time is an under on strokes I’m eyeing up. The rain this week should have the course plenty soft and all the weather models are calling for calm conditions early on, so I’d expect to see the -1 scoring average from last year repeated. Though Jordan hasn’t had a ton of starts since the wrist surgery, he did top 5 at the WMPO (although he did miss the cut at Genesis – balance haha) and the iron play has been solid so far in 2025. I project him for about 1-1.5 SG/round which puts him solidly under this sort of projection.
Luke Clanton Under 69.5 Strokes
- The young amateur has proven to be well beyond his years, averaging over 1.5 SG/round in his career on tour. With an AM tee time and ideal conditions just like Spieth, I like his chances to go low even though it will be his first trip at this venue. Something worth noting about this event is that course history is about as random as we ever see and I’m not so sure it’s a big deal that either hasn’t played professionally here before. His elite tier distance and accuracy off the tee will be helpful and he also has the power to take on all the par 5s in 2 so I like the course fit as well.
Let’s get back on the cash train on our free plays! I will be walking the course tomorrow and will be trying to get an even better gauge on conditions. Make sure to stay plugged into my Twitter/X/YT for extra coverage on that side and any extra free bets I may throw out there in accordance. I’m looking forward to all the action.. Let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
