This week’s Farmers is our first real test on the PGA Tour schedule with some major championship like conditions! Long rough, tricky greens, and stunning vistas make Torrey one of the more recognizable venues in the world of golf. And with me hitting Homa two years ago for one of the bigger bets of my career and Luke List the year prior – we’ve got plenty of vibes to go around this week! Here in this preview we will be deep diving both courses this week and how we can approach the prop boards Wednesday. Let’s make it back to back weeks with the free play cashing!
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Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties (36 holes)
Returning Champ – Matthieu Pavon (-13)
Past Champs – Homa, List, Reed, Leishman, Rose, Day, Rahm, Snedeker
Purse – $9.3million
Course Details (2 this week):
Just like last week, there are multiple courses in play at the Farmers. The South course will be in play for 3 of the 4 rounds, and both over the weekend, so that’s where a majority of our focus will be.
Torrey Pines South Course (main)
Length – 7,765 yards
Par – 72
Green type – Poa
Avg Green size – 5,000 sq. ft/green
Designer – William P + William F Bell (Renovation by Rees Jones)
# of Bunkers – 82
# of holes w/ water – 1
Rough – 4” Ryegrass overseed
Torrey Pines North Course
Par – 72
Length – 7,258 yards
Green type – Bentgrass
Avg Green size – 6,000 sq. ft/green
Designer – William P + William F Bell (Renovation by Tom Weiskopf)
# of Bunkers – 42
# of holes w/ water – 0
Rough – 4” Ryegrass overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at the Torrey Pines South course.
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution: (South Course)
The approach distribution at the South course skews significantly longer than the average PGA tour course with a ton of shots coming from 175+
How to model at the Farmers
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG: Ball Striking
- Ball Striking is the name of the game around a demanding track like Torrey, and flushers of the golf ball have historically dominated this event.
Carry Distance
- Carry distance is a good way to go after some of the longer players in the field. With a low fairway % and thick rough, longer players will not only have shorter clubs into the green but also higher club head speed to extract balls from bad lies
SG Approach: 175-275
- As we pointed out in the approach distribution section, there are a lot more shots from 175+ at Torrey compared to most on the PGA Tour so we are adding some extra emphasis there.
SG: Around the Green
- Around the green is more of a factor this week because of sample size. With harder ball striking comes more opportunities for misses, and more emphasis on this category.
SG PUTT: 4-12’ Poa
- Putting on bumping Poa is always something we look at during the West Coast swing with how polarizing the surface is. Some hate the harder to putt greens, and some love them – so accounting for that is especially useful.
Bogey Avoidance
- Avoiding big numbers is critical around Torrey if you plan on staying in contention, as mistakes are almost inevitable with ball striking as tough as we get at the South course.
Par 5 Scoring
- The par 5s are where a vast majority of the birdie looks come at the South course and being able to take them on is crucial. 3 of the 4 are 600+ yards as well making it even tougher.
3 Putt % > 25’
- 3 putting comes into play this week with how tough the green complexes are around the South Course. Being able to cozy the ball up to the hole on longer putts is going to be useful this week.
Comparison Courses:
Quail Hollow Club
- Quail Hollow has a different look and agronomy situation when compared to this week, but the ball striking test is similar and why I like this event for some comparison. Longer hitters get a distinct advantage at both events and high ball flights are preferred to hold the sloping greens.
Muirfield Village GC
- Jack’s place is one of the harder PGA Tour tracks that we see all year and why I use it as a comp this week. The firm greens and thick rough are a tough test like we get around Torrey Pines and a lot of the top finishers there have also performed well here over the years.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Wednesday.
Wednesday’s weather forecast:
Round 1’s weather looks beautiful. Low winds, higher temperatures than usual, and I would expect to see slightly better scoring than 2024 as a result.
Round 1 Free Play
Our free play for round 1 pays 3.24x over on Underdog Fantasy! It has some anticorrelation, hence the payout boost, but there’s line value on both sides compared to sportsbooks. On Prize Picks you’d only get a 3x payout for these two and Finau is up at 4 BOB so Underdog is the better place to enter this.
Code Gsluke there if you haven’t signed up for a deposit match btw
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes
- As a Luke Clanton fan, this is a tough fade.. but shooting -4 is going to be tough even at the easier North Course. It’s the first time we are seeing him tested by legit 4 inch rough and in his first start here I like this fade. He’s a whopping -170 for his over on DK and -165 for the over on FD, so I mixed this in even though it hurts my insides a bit haha.
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
- Tony does play the harder South course round 1 but has an insane track record around Torrey Pines, with 4 top 9 finishes in his last 5 starts here, and 3 of those being top 6 finishes. The BOB average is typically in the 3.3-3.5 range but with some higher temperatures expected bc of the Santa Ana winds, we could see better scoring days 1-2. I am projecting for around a 3.4 average for the field and if so this is a no brainer over considering Tony Finau was the #18 BOB% player on all of tour in 2024. On FD he’s juiced a whole -165 for the over at this number so there’s a ton of “+ev” value here as well.
Let’s cash out on our round 1 slip and for all our exposure this week! Make sure to join the Betthenumber site for course analytics and tools to grind out some value. Code GSLUKE when checking out for a discount!
