It’s playoff time on the PGA Tour! The first leg of the playoffs kick off in Memphis with what is one of the strongest pound for pound fields in golf. Only the top 70 on the Fedex Cup rankings even qualify for the event, and spots are on the line for next week’s BMW Championship which is just for the top 50 in overall points.
On top of all of those fireworks, we’ve also got some betting and prop exposure to attack as well! Here in this preview we’ll be going over everything you need to know before placing any bets this week and we’ll see if we can cash out on a pick ‘em slip as well. With a ton to go through, let’s stop yapping and get this thing going!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Jordan Spieth Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
- Jordan got to 7 BOBs Thursday and was able to take advantage of a very scorable day. While he made some long putts which helped, the field average for BOBs was about this number so it wasn’t too hard to go over for us.
Si Woo Kim Over 13.5 Greens in Regulation ❌
- On the other hand, Si Woo was NOT able to have as much luck for us. He really struggled on his front nine and looked out of sorts with his ball striking, and although the field average for GIRs was 13.6/round Thursday, he went well under. If you told me ahead of time the average would have been a whopping 13.6 I would have put WAY more on this lean so its unfortunate he had an off day. Normally a solid iron players like him is able to cover that sort of line.
Season-Long Hit rate: 36-26-2 year-to-date (58.1% hit rate)
Tournament details:
As this is a limited field event, it has a slightly different format than most. First off, its no cut and every player will get all 4 rounds to play, with the top 50 in the Fedex Cup advancing to next week’s BMW Championship. The points are juiced up from the regular season amounts as well giving the back of the pack a chance with a good week.
Field size – 69 players (McIlroy sitting out)
Cut – No Cut
Returning Champ – Matsuyama (-17)
Past Champs – Glover, Zalatoris
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN
Par – 70
Length – 7,288 yards
Avg Green Size – 4,500 sq. ft/green
Green type – TifEagle Bermudagrass
Designer – Ron Prichard (1988)
Number of bunkers – 75
Water Hazards – 11 (in play on 11 holes)
Rough – 3” 419 Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at TPC Southwind:
Referencing the course page on BTN, we can get a baseline of what to expect at this course compared to the PGA tour average. The metrics below reflect the last 3 years worth of data at TPC Southwind
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!
Driving Bias:
Like Sedgefield CC last week, this course is more positional than most on tour. In fact BTN has it rated at a 2.6 out of 10 in the Bomber’s Paradise ranking which is as low as I’ve ever seen it! Avoiding water hazards and the gnarly 3 inch Bermuda rough is going to be critical this year.
Approach distribution:
As a shorter par 70, the approach distribution also skews a lot shorter than most tour courses. And because of the design, a lot of the short par 4s also force layups which puts most of the approaches from 100+ yards. The result? Almost HALF of the shots coming from 125-175 yards.
How to model at the 2025 Fedex St Jude Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Fedex St Jude Championship and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 6 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving form is always an important stat to consider, but especially at a course this penal off the tee
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- Distance from edge of fairway gives us a measure of how far off players are missing when they do, which is key to limit if players are going to avoid the big numbers that come with water balls
SG Approach
- Iron play is the cornerstone of any good SG model, and using form is a necessity every week
Approach 120-190 yards
- Narrowing down the approach profile we’ll see players hitting a TON of shots from 120-190, so adding some extra emphasis there is a good idea
SG Around the Green (Last 40 rounds)
- With the tiny greens at this course, even the best ball strikers are going to miss greens. As such ARG will be a key part of anyone’s success this week
SG Putting 8-15 Feet
- The 8 to 15 foot range has been a key separator at TPC Southwind over the years, thus adding some emphasis to those putts could prove fruitful
Putting together all of those stats, world #1 Scottie Scheffler tops the list followed by Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka, Emiliano Grillo and Chris Gotterup. A good mix of form guys and course horses with their precision.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Weather wise it looks beautiful for Round 1. Winds are pretty much nonexistent, and there isn’t any forecasted rain either. However, temperatures will be sweltering and with the news greens at the course I’m expecting them to be extremely firm, especially without a ton of rain. As such scoring might not improve quite like you think, but it will be hard to say exactly how scoring looks beforehand. Something around last year’s averages is what I’m projecting for, maybe slightly harder with the firmness.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our slip for this week is going to be a 2 leg slip on Underdog that pays 3.09x with the anticorrelation between these two spots!
Maverick McNealy Under 11.5 GIR
- After renovation the greens are going to be firmer than in the past, which could lower the GIR average a bit as these are tiny 4,500 sq. ft greens to begin with. As such I have the GIR average at best at the 11.25 mark from last year, if not 11 or lower which would make this solid value with McNealy middle of this field in GIR%. He projects around that field average wherever it lands, and although he’s even money on books at this number I personally disagree and think he should be juiced under or down at 10.5 personally.
Collin Morikawa Under 68.5 Strokes
- With the winds staying low though, I don’t think scoring will be THAT much harder. Players may be missing greens on fringes and with big bounces, but the scoring should stay under par with the weather cooperating as much as it is. And with a PM tee time when it will be 95 degrees Morikawa’s ball will be flying further which could be a benefit to his game overall. He’s -130 juice for his under so there’s some sportsbook line value on this spot as well.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
