In what will be a unique iteration of the Genesis Invitational, we head BACK to Torrey Pines and the South Course for this week’s action. While Riviera CC will surely be missed this year, it does give us a chance to see Torrey Pines and all its glory for a second time in 2025.
Here in this preview, we will be fully breaking down the course as well as how to attack the prop boards for Round 1. That’ll include full course details, stat averages, analytics, modeling + a Thursday weather report (especially important this week!) so you have ALL the info you need to crush your exposure. Let’s hop on in!
Before we go through the details for Pebble, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
2025 Free Play Record:
Sentry 1-1 (-1 unit)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌
Sony 1-1 (-1 unit)
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️
AMEX 2-0 (+1.75 units)
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Farmers 2-0 (+2.24 units)
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Pebble 1-1 (-1 unit)
Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️
Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌
WM Phoenix Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
JJ Spaun O 12.5 GIR❌
Akshay Bhatia O 7.5 FIR✔️
Hit rate: 8-4 (66.7%)
Profit/Loss: -0.01 units year to date
Last week’s runout was absolutely brutal with us getting hooked on Spaun’s GIR line. He went under by 0.5 with multiple water balls on the easier holes on the course (such as #15, a par 5, and #17 a drivable par 4). The reads were there, nothing we can do about that sort of outcome other than bounce back this time around. Let’s get it!
Tournament details:
Field size – 72
Cut – Top 50 and ties (and anyone within 10 shots of the lead)
Returning Champ – Hideki Matsuyama
Past Champs – Rahm, Niemann, Homa, Scott, Holmes, Watson, Johnson
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
Torrey Pines – South Course
Par – 72
Length – 7,765 yards
Green type – Poa Annua
Avg Green size – 5,000 sq. ft/green
Designer – William P. Bell and William F. Bell
# of Bunkers – 82
# of holes w/ water – 1
Rough – 4” Rye Overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Torrey Pines. That sample includes the Farmers from 2025 as we were just here a few weeks ago.
2025 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just a few weeks ago, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution skews towards the middle to longer iron section of the bag at a nearly 7,800 yard golf course.
How to model at the 2025 Genesis Invitaitonal
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG: Off the Tee
- Driving is always an important factor at Torrey Pines, but especially when it gets wet and plays even longer than usual. Not only will there be a lack of roll out off the tee, but the 4 inch rough is also going to play even thicker than usual with the extra moisture
SG: Approach
- Iron play is quintessential in any golf modeling, and a ball strikers fest like Torrey is no exception
Approach: 175-225 yards
- As you could see in the approach distribution section, adding some extra emphasis to these mid to long irons is a good idea
SG: Around the Green
- While soft greens could make the GIR% higher than usual, the winds for Rounds 1 and 2 are sure to lead to some scrambling for most of the field
Poa Putt: 4-12 feet
- Putting is best evaluated on Poa greens like we have this week and from the 4-12 foot range where players can really start to separate themselves from the field
Bogey Avoidance
- Avoiding big #s is always a key part of the process here, but especially when conditions get windy and the rough is thicker
Carry Distance
- On top of just looking at regular OTT stats, BTN is also mixing in carry distance to target some of the longer players in the field
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing tomorrow
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Weather could be a sizable factor in our Thursday process. Not only does it look blustery at times, but the course is also expected to get a good amount of rain overnight and potentially even during play. While the winds could make things trickier than usual, the softness of the greens could also help make things easier from the ball striking perspective. While it makes for a hard to narrow down scoring average, I still expect the average to be over par, and somewhere in the +1 to +2 range most likely. It’s a relatively wide range as the forecasts could drastically impact play but it’s about the best we can do at this stage.
However, I usually default to the players when it comes to conditions and they seem to think it’ll be brutal out there. Here’s a quote from Collin Moriakwa yesterday on how he expects conditions to play out:
That being said, some fades could be in store for round #1 is the price is right. Let’s hop on in!
Round 1 Free Play
Our free slip for this week is going to pay 2.7x on Underdog if we can cash these two!
Tom Hoge Over 73.5 Strokes
- Hoge has a sketchy track record around Torrey with just 2 top 45 finishes here in 9 tries, so with the wind/rain projected I like this over. The rain will make the rough even more penal than usual and someone like Tom who has been struggling off the tee could be in for some trouble. I project for around a 73.5 scoring average, which means he’d have to gain strokes to the field to go under which is something I’m more than comfortable fading in a signature level field – especially when the course fit isn’t ideal.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 73.5 Strokes
- C Bez is also struggling with his driver, losing about a half stroke per round over his last 12 measured rounds. On top of that, he’s yet to record better than a T31 in his 3 starts at Torrey Pines and unless he starts to drive the ball better is someone I like for a fade. Like Hoge, he’d have to gain strokes to the projected field average to cover and with his lack of experience and driving issues I’m comfortable fading him in this field.
Let’s cash out on these two and get back into the profit on the year! Our hit rate has been excellent so far but we just need some run good to go our way and we’ll be right back to a full cash. Best of luck, and let’s have ourselves a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
