Our props have been on absolute FIRE the last couple weeks, with back to back full cashes on our prop slips! Let’s continue that momentum at the Scottish Open and see if we can make it a 3-peat.
Here in this preview I’ll be getting you ready for all of your Round 1 Betting exposure. We’ll deep dive the course details for the Renaissance Club, modeling, key stats, weather, and of course our Round 1 slip for tomorrow’s action. Let’s hop on in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Dylan Frittelli Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Sungjae Im Over BOBM (vs. Buckley) ✔️
Season-Long Hit rate: 31-22-1 year-to-date (58.5% hit rate)
- Our course read for Round 1 ended up being spot on last week, with the AM playing significantly easier than the PM hours. As such we were in a good spot to cash our Frittelli fade as he not only had poor form but also had to play in the harder conditions. Sungjae also spanked Hayden in his matchup so we were pretty sweat free there too.
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Macintyre (-18)
Past Champs – McIlroy, Schauffele
Purse – $9 million
Course Details:
Renaissance Club – North Berwick, Scotland
Par – 70
Length – 7,282 yards
Green type – Fescue
Designer – Coore/Crenshaw
Rough – 3”+ Fescue
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at The Renaissance Club:
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!
Off the Tee Bias:
Per the analytics, the Renaissance Club rates out as about tour average off the tee. Distance is rewarded a bit around this layout, but with the bomber’s paradise ranking only at 5.5/10, that advantage is limited in scope
Approach distribution:
Just like off the tee play, the approach distribution is also relatively balanced at this course which makes it a fair test
How to model at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open:
In order to model at the Genesis Scottish Open and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 6 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving form is included in the BTN model to give us an idea of who is hitting their tee shots the best heading in. Having both distance and accuracy is rewarded so that’s why we are using pure shots gained here
SG Approach
- Iron play is the cornerstone of any good course model, and the Renaissance Club is no different
APP 175-225
- The 175 to 225 range is utilized a bit more than usual at this track so putting extra emphasis on that bucket is a good idea
SG Around the Green 20+ yards (Fairway)
- Chips on the 3 par 5s or 2 potentially drivable par 4s will be in this range which is a unique scoring bucket for this course
3 Putt Avoidance (Over 25 feet)
- The greens aren’t ALL massive, but they do have a bunch of undulation which makes 3 putts more common than you’d think
SG Putt (4-8 feet)
- The 4 to 8 foot range has been a key separator at this course so adding some extra emphasis there could prove fruitful
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Weather wise, it looks like we are getting a stereotypical Scottish summer day. Winds should be kicking a bit the entire day, and it will be a little bit chilly to start. Scoring last year was the best it’s ever been at this course so with the forecast and lack of rain this week I have to think that birdies could be a bit harder to come by. I still think it’ll play under par, but the -1.2+ average from last year feels too optimistic this time around.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our Free Play is an Underdog slip that pays 2.7x with two fades mixed in. Let’s see if we can make it 3 cashes in a row!
Maverick McNealy Over 68.5 Strokes
- With the dryer conditions this year, I am projecting for around a -0.5 scoring average compared to the -1+ scoring average from 2024. And with Maverick not having much experience on links courses I like this fade quite a bit. He’s 0/2 on making cuts at the open, and he only has 1 start at this course and it was 3 years ago (although he did finish T16). He’d have to gain over a stroke to my projected average to cover which is something I’ll fade this week. He also has -135 juice for his over on Draftkings so that’s nice to see that the books also favor this side.
Harris English Over 68.5 Strokes
- Harris has more experience than Mav at links courses, but it isn’t good course history. His best finish in two starts here was T34 and he only has ONE top 40 finish at the Open Champ in 9 trips there, a dreadful set of “links” history. Gaining over a stroke to the field isn’t easy in a strong field event like this so I’m on the over for Round 1 as well. Like Mav, he’s also juiced for the over on Draftkings (-130).
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 1-4)
