If you like birdie fests, then you’re in luck because we get another on tap this week to add on top of the fireworks in Detroit. TPC Deere Run and the John Deere Classic have become a staple on the PGA Tour schedule, and we’ve come to expect -20 or better winning scores here over the last 5 years or so. A short, non penal setup off the tee lets players be aggressive for most of their round, and with pure Bent greens without a ton of slope, putts are made in bunches as well.
Here in this preview we’ll be giving you all the details you need for this week’s event, including a look at the course analytics for TPC Deere Run, modeling for the event, a weather forecast, and of course, our round 1 free play. We hit on last week’s 2-leg for 2.75x so let’s try and add on that for Thursday. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Jacob Bridgeman Under 69.5 Strokes (Hit – shot 68) ✔️
Matt McCarty Over 4.5 Birdies or Better (hit – made 6)✔️
Season-Long Hit rate: 29-22-1 year-to-date (56.8% hit rate)
- Like expected, the course played super easy with the soft conditions and next to no wind Thursday. Lift clean and place made conditions even easier as well which only made our job easier on cashing out on these two. Both could have had slightly below average days and STILL could have covered for us. That’s value secured, and we’ll try and add on top of it this week!
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Thompson (-28)
Past Champs – Straka, Poston, Glover, Frittelli, M. Kim
Purse – $8.4 million
Course Details:
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Il
Par – 71
Length – 7.289 yards
Green type – Bentgrass
Designer – D.A. Weibring
# of Bunkers – 76
# of holes w/ water – 3
Rough – 4” Bluegrass/Fescue
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at TPC Deere Run:
Because this is a course we see often on tour, we have plenty of data to work with. Speaking of, here are the stat averages from the last 3 years at the John Deere Classic so you have a baseline of what to expect this week. I also included the top 20 averages for the last 3 iterations of the event to show the types of players that found success in each given year.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!
Driving Bias:
TPC Deere Run isn’t as long as last week’s Detroit Golf Club and also doesn’t have a ton of penalty when you miss, so off the tee in general is a bit de-emphasized around this course. Bombers will still gain strokes to the field with their length, but the track only ranks as a 6/10 in the bomber’s paradise ranking so it isn’t as significant as at other courses.
Approach distribution:
Despite being shorter than Detroit Golf Club, the approach distribution skews a bit longer than last week. That’s likely due to the longer par 3s and the layup par 4s that weren’t as prevalent at DGC, but there’s still plenty of shots in the 125-175 range this week.
How to model at the 2025 John Deere Classic:
In order to model at the John Deere Classic and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 5 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving might not be the most important factor on a week like this, but we still need to look at it to some extent. Power and accuracy are rewarded at times around here, so BTN isn’t being too picky on how players are gaining to the field.
APP 100-190 yards
- BTN is getting specific on approach from 100 to 190 yards, which is the range where a vast majority of iron shots are coming from. Even when players have 125 or less yards they are usually 100+ yards because of the layups that are forced off the tee.
SG Around the Green
- Chipping shouldn’t be the main concern this week as its a birdie fest, but ARG will come into play on the par 5s and drivable par 4(s) as well.
Putting 8-15 Feet
- The 8 to 15 foot range is where players have historically separated themselves from the field at TPC Deere Run so adding some extra emphasis on those putts could be a good idea.
Birdie or Better Percentage
- Making birdies is key at a course with a winning score routinely past -20, and even to sniff the top 25 players are likely going to need to get close to that sort of number. Birdie production also directly correlates to DFS score so that’s an added bonus too.
By putting together all these stats: the top 5 for this week’s event are Cam Champ, Kevin Yu, Michael Thorbjornsen, Keith Mitchell and Emiliano Grillo. That’s a good mix of skillsets too showing there are multiple ways to get it done around here!
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Weather looks pretty close to ideal for Round #1. Winds won’t get over 10 mph sustained at any point during the day, and the threat of storms doesn’t show up till the very end of the PM wave. I would say that scoring close to last year is reasonable, with a chance that it plays a bit harder than that in the afternoon. Last year was the lowest scoring average we’ve seen at this course, so that’s why I shade on it being a bit harder just as it typically plays closer to -1.5 to -1.75. -2 will be the projected field average Thursday, with a BOB average around 4.3-4.4 and a BOW average of 2.3-2.4.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our Round 1 slip is a 2 leg on Prize Picks that pays 3x if we go 2-0!
Dylan Frittelli Over 68.5 Strokes
- Dylan has lost strokes in 10 of his last 12 world wide starts, and the two events he gained in were both lower level DPWT events so even then we have to take that with a grain of salt. I am currently projecting for around a -2 average Thursday with winds not looking like too much of a problem, but if that’s the case then Frittelli would have to gain a stroke to the field to cover this sort of line which is something I’ll fade. He has had trouble overseas even being average, so why would Prize Picks have him one stroke better than a PGA level field? I know he’s won here in the past, but that was ages ago when he was a legit threat. He isn’t that sort of player these days.
Sungjae Im Over BOBM (vs. Buckley)
- Even with Sungjae’s slow start this year, he ranks top 40 on tour in birdie or better percentage whereas Buckley doesn’t even have enough starts to qualify for the averages this season. Last year he lost his card and ranked #166 on tour in the category, and it’s not like he’s been playing any better of late. He’s lost strokes to the field in 13 of his last 14 world wide starts, and his birdie rate hasn’t been much better, ranking outside the top 100 in this field over the last 24 measured rounds. Even with the 0.5 attached I like this over on Sungjae as he projects for almost 1 more BOB/round. Last season Sungjae was .74 BOBs/round better, but considering Buckley has been terrible this year I think we have to bump down the projection even more (at least I am).
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
