We finally made it ladies and gentlemen.. It’s Masters week! The year’s first major is a favorite for many, and here in this preview we’re going to get you ready for all of your prop betting this week! We’ll deep dive all the relevant stats from Augusta National Golf Club, as well as a Round 1 game plan for attacking the prop boards. So without further adieu, let’s hop in!
2025 Free Play Record:
Valero Texas Open:
McCarthy U 70.5 Strokes ❌
Conners U 4.5 BOB ✔️
Hit rate: 17-11 year-to-date (60.71% hit rate)
Had Denny not hooked us at 71 strokes, we would have been cooking last week. This time around let’s make it a full cash rather than a close call.
Tournament details:
Field size – 95
Cut – Top 50 and ties
Returning Champ – Scheffler (-11)
Past Champs – Rahm, Scheffler, Matsuyama, Johnson, Woods, Reed
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
Augusta National Golf Club
Par – 72
Length – 7,555 yards
Green type – Bentgrass
Designer – Dr. Alister Mackenzie
# of Bunkers – 44
# of holes w/ water – 4
Rough – 1.5” Rye overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at ANGC
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The 126-175 range is going to be utilized a bit more than usual this week as per the approach distribution below
How to model at the 2025 Masters
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 8 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG OTT: (Off the Tee)
- Driving the ball is always something we consider on tour, and the Master is no different. While some courses lean heavily into distance versus accuracy, ANGC is more balanced hence the focus on general OTT stats
Apex Height
- How high players can hit the ball becomes useful when on approach, which is ironic for an off the tee stat but that’s how the tour relays the apex height data. A higher ball flight allows players to stop the ball closer to pin locations that are tucked, which are plentiful at ANGC
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- Keeping the ball in play is a factor with the treelines aspect to Augusta, but unless you miss rather drastically, most players will get away with mistakes.
SG Approach
- Iron play is the most important stat in any SG analysis, and this week is perhaps even more so the case at this “2nd shot” golf course.
APP: 175-250 yards
- The 175-250 yard range is utilized a bit more than usual around this track, so focusing on shots in that range we can find guys better suited for this sort of track
SG Around the Green
- Chipping and pitching is especially difficult at Augusta, with slopes making the shots much more difficult than usual. The last 5 winners of the Masters have all gained significant strokes to the field ARG heading into the event
SG Putting
- The greens at ANGC are tough to putt, and bleeding strokes is possible with 3 putts and short misses happening more than usual at the Masters
SG Augusta National Golf Club
- Course history is the stickiest of any course on tour around here, so guys who have experience and success around ANGC should be given a boost this week
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
It looks a bit chilly Thursday morning, but the winds are also expected to lie down which should present decent scoring conditions early on. In the afternoon the winds do kick up just a little bit, but they aren’t too blustery and temperatures will also become more comfortable getting into the high 60s and low 70s. Scoring should be a bit easier than what we had last year with the rain the course got early this week, but as it firms up throughout the week and if we get some wind it could get tricky quickly!
Round 1 Free Play
Our Round 1 slip is over on the Prize Picks side, and pays 3x with us mixing in both an over and under.
Homa Under 10.5 Greens in Regulation
- Homa has lost strokes on approach in 7 straight events, having lost over 13 strokes in the process (or almost -2 SG/round.. yikes). He’s clearly lost with the irons, and it makes literally zero sense for Prize Picks to have him over last year’s average of about 10.3 GIR/round. On the range today he hit 240+ shots per the Masters site and if true, he’s still trying to find his form making me like this spot even more.
Hovland Over 10.5 Greens in Regulation
- On the other side, Hovland has been on fire with the irons lately, having gained over a stroke per round over his last 5 events worldwide. Over the last 24 rounds he grades out top 10 in the field in GIR%, and considering I think the field average could be around 10.5 thursday, if not a hair higher, this is a spot I’m comfortable taking an over on as he actually has some form in the category (unlike homa).
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
