After the Genesis Invitational, which treated us very nicely (cashed our free slip AND an Aberg outright 🙂), the tour heads to Mexico for this week’s tour stop! It won’t be an elite tier field like we had at Torrey, but there are props to cash out on and GPPs to take down so you already know we’ll be fully deep diving the course as per usual.
Here in this breakdown, we’ll get you ready stat wise for what to expect this week and also give you a game plan to cash out on the Round 1 prop boards. Let’s make it back to back full cashes on our exposure. Time to hop in!
Before we go through the details for Vidanta Vallarta, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
2025 Free Play Record:
Sentry 1-1 (-1 unit)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌
Sony 1-1 (-1 unit)
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️
AMEX 2-0 (+1.75 units)
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Farmers 2-0 (+2.24 units)
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Pebble 1-1 (-1 unit)
Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️
Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌
WM Phoenix Open 1-1 (-1 unit)
JJ Spaun O 12.5 GIR❌
Akshay Bhatia O 7.5 FIR✔️
Genesis 2-0 (+1.7 units)
Hoge O 73.5 Strokes✔️
C Bez O 73.5 Strokes✔️
Hit rate: 10-4 year-to-date (71.4% hit rate on props!)
Profit/Loss: +1.69 units year to date, a $100 bettor is up $169 so far this year! (on a free article)
The course played super tough like we expected last week, and Hoge + C Bez were pretty much non sweats for us. Exactly how we drew it up!
Tournament details:
Field size – 134
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Jake Knapp (-19)
Past Champs – Finau, Rahm
Purse – $7 million
Course Details:
Vidanta Vallarta
Par – 71
Length – 7,436 yards
Green type – Platinum paspalum
Designer – Greg Norman
# of Bunkers – 55
# of holes w/ water – 13
Rough – 2.5” Paspalum
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Vidanta Vallarta.
2025 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
This week’s approach distribution skews much longer than what we usually see on tour, with almost 3 less shots coming from 50-125 and almost 3 extra shots coming from 175-225 per round.
How to model at the 2025 Mexico Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 8 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
“Regular” SG Form
- The BTN model has all 4 core SG categories included this week, with the ball striking categories (OTT + APP) taken over the last 30 measured rounds whereas the short game form (ARG + PUTT) is over the last 24 rounds
Ball Speed
- Ball speed gives us a way to identify the “bomber” type players in this field. With such wide driving corridors, the longer players always see a sizable advantage around this course
APP 175+
- Approach play from 175+ yards is a key stat around Vidanta Vallarta as evidenced by the approach distribution where 12/18 shots come from those proximity buckets
Putt 6-20 ft
- Putting from 6-20 feet has been a key separator at this course over its first three iterations, hence why its included in this week’s modeling
Right Miss
- A majority of the water hazards in play are to the right side of fairways/greens. As such, right misses are penalized MORE on average than left misses. Players that have their predominant miss to the left side are favorable
By having modeling to guide our process, it can help us make a more informed player pool or prop decision for this specific course.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing tomorrow
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Weather looks calm all things considered, especially towards the beginning half of the day. Temperatures should stay comfortable all week but historically we’ve seen the AM side play easier than the PM wave with greens firming up a bit and winds getting a bit more substantial. I would expect a similar effect for Round 1.
Round 1 Free Play
Our free play is over on Prize Picks and will pay 3x if we hit on both sides!
Aaron Rai Under 13.5 GIR
- While Rai is one of the better GIR% players we have in this field, the projection is where the value comes in on this under. With an average closer to 11.8-11.9/round, a player like Rai would have to gain just over 2 GIR to the field to cover this sort of line, something I’ll fade. In his 10 rounds at this course he’s gone over in just 4/10 rounds, which could be a byproduct of the course fit not being so great. He lacks the elite tier length that we desire in most of our player pool and with a PM tee time could also have firmer greens to combat and slightly higher winds as well. He personally projects for around 12.75 GIR/round, still well over the field average, but also solidly below this sort of projection
Ryan Fox Under 69 Strokes
- Ryan Fox was one of my outright bets this week because of his elite tier length off the tee. He has an AM tee time when greens will be a bit more receptive and winds should be at their calmest, and with what I’m projecting to be around a -1 to -1.5 scoring average he would need to gain 0.5-1 stroke to the field to push this, with anything better being a hit for us. Something worth considering at a weaker field event like this is a lower average talent level. Asking a player like Fox that is already an above average player to gain strokes is much easier in this sort of event compared to higher level fields. With the push equity at -2, and anything better being a cash for us, I mixed this in for the under.
Let’s see if we can make it back to back cashes on our free plays and keep the momentum going. Best of luck with all of your exposure this week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
