There’s something that just feels “right” about golf overseas. An aura behind of the cathedrals of our game, venues that have shaped the story of golf as a sport. The announcers sound better. Balls run and bound over turf rather than plopping and spinning back. Creativity runs rampant instead of robotic monotony. The fans are educated and appreciate a good shot. You hardly see a phone in sight. And the weather, oh the weather, is a diabolical creature of its own.. Seemingly changing every five minutes.
When The Open comes around, golf just gets better. So when I say I’m excited for this week, I mean it.
Here in this preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your prop exposure Round 1! We’ll go through some course details, analytics, my course modeling, key stats, some weather and of course our free play for Thursday’s action. We’ve got a ton to go through, so let’s no waste any time at all and hop in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Maverick McNealy Over 68.5 Strokes❌
Harris English Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Season-Long Hit rate: 32-23-1 year-to-date (58.2% hit rate)🔥
We went 1-1 on our blog from last week which wasn’t quite what we wanted with Mav going under his strokes line, but I feel good about the course read. It played about even par Thursday which was significantly harder than the 2024 field averages, and the lines we locked in ended up bumping quite a lot by the time lock came around. CLV doesn’t always translate into immediate results, but it does tell us we were on the right sort of leans. Let’s try and make it 4-0 this week and a full cash.
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Xander Schauffele (-9)
Past Champs – Harman, Smith, Morikawa, Lowry
Purse – $17 million
Course Details:
Royal Portrush Golf Club (Dunluce Links) – Portrush, NI
Par – 71
Length – 7,381 yards
Avg Green Size – 5,400 sq. ft
Green type – Fescue
Avg Fairway Width – 27 yards
Designer – Harry Colt (Ebert redesign)
Number of bunkers – 57
Water Hazards – 2 streams
Rough – 2” Fescue/Bentgrass/Wild flowers
Stat Averages from the 2019 Open:
This will be only the 3rd time that the Open has been held at Royal Portrush, so our data sample size is a bit smaller than usual. No worries though, here are the stat averages from 2019, the last time we saw this course in tournament play.
2019 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down the averages to the prop categories and make them actionable, here’s what we get from 2019 at Royal Portrush. It is worth noting though that the scoring averages varied anywhere between about even par and +2 that year due to varying weather so it will be especially important to monitor.
How to model at the 2025 Open:
In order to model at The Open and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 7 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving is going to be a big part of this week’s event, and having a complete game is the key around Royal Portrush. The course has some lengthy holes at almost 7,400 yards, some spots of bother including OB and gorse bushes, so those that can hit it long AND straight will be at a massive advantage over the rest of the field.
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- The big misses are penalized more than small misses at Royal Portrush, which isn’t always the case (I’m looking at you US Open and PGA Champ setups!). This metrics allows us to see who has the tightest dispersion with driver.
SG Approach
- Iron play is always the foundation of any good SG model, and this week is no different.
APP 170-230
- The most utilized buckets though will be from 170+, and as such BTN is adding extra emphasis to that portion of the bag.
SG Around the Green
- With small greens, even the best players will miss greens at times. That’s even more so the case when the weather deteriorates.
Scrambling
- Scrambling is another good way to make sure we are getting players with a stout short game.
SG Putt: 6-15’
- The small greens also means that players won’t have a ton of long putts to deal with. The 6-15 foot range has been a key separator historically, so BTN is adding emphasis there.
When we put it all together, the top 5 in the BTN model are: Scottie Scheffler, Marco Penge, Sepp Straka, Ben Griffin and Russell Henley. All plays worthy of an extra deep dive or two before lock!
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (GFS model via windy.com)
It looks like we are due for some Open Championship weather Thursday. Not only does it look pretty windy for most of the day, but there will also be periodic spells of rain that will make conditions even tougher for players. That being said, I think scoring will side towards the harder conditions that we saw in 2019, with a scoring average around +1.5 or worse for the field. The rains don’t pick up as much until the mid to later parts of the day, so if one side is going to get slightly better scoring chances it would be the morning players.
Another factor to throw out is the possibility of thunderstorms in the area. Lightning is rare in Northern Ireland, but they’ve already had a weather delay for the practice rounds this week so it’s at least something to consider. A delay would push play into Friday morning where conditions still look pretty blustery, but with no rain forecasted then.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our free play for this week is going to be this 10x 4 leg slip. I went with a bigger slip this time as the push equity on all 4 spots is significant enough to where we should expect 1+ pushes. And with the payouts on 2 legs with a push being so unfavorable, it’s best to avoid that sort of slip on Prize Picks.
Keegan Bradley Over 3 Bogeys or Worse
- Keegan’s high ball flight gets him into trouble at times at the Open, and with him missing 5 straight cuts here I’ll fade him with a later tee time when winds should be kicking up
Akshay Bhatia Over 3 Birdies or Better
- I like this positive stance on Bhatia who ranks top 15 on the pga tour in BOB% and is a player who is capable of hitting low drivers/irons shots in the wind. His earlier tee time also means he could get slightly easier conditions
Dustin Johnson Over 3 Birdies or Better
- DJ is also an AM tee time and has been the #4 BOB% player on the LIV tour and ranks among Rahm/Bryson/etc.
Justin Rose Over 3 Bogeys or Worse
- Rose is #175 in bogey avoidance and though he finished strong last week, his form otherwise has been pretty terrible. With the later tee time he also isn’t getting too many breaks with the conditions either
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 1-4)
