We finally made it to major #2 of the year, the PGA Championship! The Quail Hollow Club will play host to this week’s festivities in what should be an absolutely electric event. Here in this prop preview, we’ll be getting you ready for all of your Prop + Betting exposure with a full deep dive of the course, conditions, modeling + a Round 1 free play that I’ve already played myself. And after last week’s full cash, we’ve got momentum on our side. Let’s build on top of it!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Cam Davis Over 3.5 BOB✔️
Russell Henley Over 4 BOB✔️
Season-Long Hit rate: 23-15 year-to-date (60.52% hit rate)
Our course read for Philly Cricket Club ended up being spot on for Thursday, with even our expectations for scoring being exceeded and a -3 scoring average! As a result we had a pretty sweat free cash on both our props last week. Let’s keep it rolling. We’re back over a 60% hit rate for the year which is wild!
Tournament details:
Other than being a major, the PGA Championship is a pretty typical stroke play event without any big rule changes compared to your run-of-the-mill PGA Tour event.
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Xander Schauffele (-21)
Past Champs – Koepka, Thomas, Mickelson, Morikawa
Purse – $18.5 million (estimate based on last year)
Course Details:
A lot of majors give us a course we aren’t so familiar with, but this week is the exception to the rule with us having a ton of familiarity with Quail Hollow.
Quail Hollow Club
Par – 71
Length – 7,626 yards
Green type – Poa Trivialis Overseed
Designer – Cobb (1961), Fazio redesigns
# of Bunkers – 61
# of holes w/ water – 7
Rough – 3” Rye Overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at Quail Hollow Club:
Here are the stat averages from the last 3 years combined at Quail Hollow. Keep in mind that these stats are from the Wells Fargo Championship and that this week’s setup will likely be tougher as the week goes on.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
To further narrow down our research and make it actionable prop wise, here are the raw averages for the field at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship
Driving Bias:
A new addition to the course breakdown will be the off the tee profile. As you can see below, Quail Hollow ranks as a 7.2/10 in the “bombers paradise” rankings showing that power is rewarded around this sort of track.
Approach distribution:
Players will have plenty of long irons in hand this week, and even more so now that they added some length to Quail Hollow since the last time we played here. For reference, here is the distribution from the last 3 years at the course.
How to model at the 2025 PGA Championship
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 8 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
“Regular” SG Metrics
- The core 4 SG categories: OTT, APP, ARG and Putting, are all included in this week’s model as you’d expect. Getting an idea for a player’s general for heading into an event is helpful regardless of where we are.
PUTT 4-10’
- The 4 to 10 foot range has been a key separator at Quail Hollow over the year per the BTN team and their research, so focusing on that proximity bucket could prove fruitful on a week like this.
APP 175-225
- With the added length to the course, players are going to have a lot more shots from 175+ and focusing on players who excel with those clubs will help us identify some of the better course fits.
Carry Distance
- With the rain this week, being a bomber is going to be even more helpful than usual at a course that already favors that sort of skill set.
SG Majors
- Because it’s a major championship and conditions will be at their toughest, finding players who excel in these sort of scenarios is important to consider as well.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
As per the forecast, conditions should be pretty solid scoring wise tomorrow, with perhaps slightly better AM scoring due to the winds not kicking up until about noon. With all the rain the area has gotten this week I would expect the rough and fairways to be extremely soft so the course could play a bit longer, but the added receptiveness of the greens is going to more than make up for that in my opinion. Overall I think it’ll play pretty similar to the sort of averages we had at last year’s Wells Fargo, maybe slightly easier in some categories. The AM guys would be the players to target for positive stance plays in my book as they have next to no wind to contend with and the greens will also be a hair softer than later on. Whereas for fades I would lean towards the PM side to find them with the winds becoming more of a factor.
Round 1 Free Play
Our slip for this week is going to be a 3x slip on Prize Picks!
Mackenzie Hughes Under 11.5 Greens in Regulation
- Mackenzie is a member at Quail Hollow which I’m sure will be the main narrative people think of this week with him, but per the numbers this is a no brainer under play. Last year at Quail Hollow the GIR average was under 10.1/round, and even with the heavy rains this week I don’t think it’s going to get too out of hand. They have a subair system at the course which lets them dry the greens out much quicker than most tracks, and while it’ll be softer than usual still, the greens will NOT be dart boards. I’ve even heard some players say in interviews that they were “bouncy”. As such, I am projecting for in between a 10.5-11 GIR average tomorrow, a little above last year but still below this sort of projection. And Hughes who ranks #99 on the PGA Tour this season in Green in Regulation percentage isn’t exactly an elite player in this category. On top of the skillset being subideal for this category, Hughes has a PM tee time when winds are supposed to become more of a factor and when greens will also be a bit more dried out. He should be down at 10.5 GIRs at most in my opinion for a projection, if not 10, so I love the value here. And to go back to the “home course” thing in case that’s a worry for you, he’s played here 7 times and has missed the cut in 5 of those starts, with one of the two made cuts being a T59 and the one decent finish a T6. So he hasn’t exactly lit it up here!
Patrick Cantlay Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
- With the softer greens, I do think the birdie average could also be a bit higher in round 1, and personally I have the field average at just about 3.5/round. An elite tier player like Cantlay becomes solid value for the over if that’s the case as he’s the #13 Birdie or Better percentage player on the PGA Tour this season. He routinely makes 0.5-0.75 more BOBs than the tour average over the last few seasons, and with an AM tee time will also get what I think will be the better side of conditions. In the morning there’s not as much wind to contend with, players should have softer greens than the Pm wave, and greens will be pristine as well. And on top of the traditional analysis being favorable on Patrick, he is juiced -130 for his over at this number on Draftkings and up to -140 for his over on Fanduel, so there’s some line value we are able to lock in as well.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
