Also known as the “5th major”, this week’s Player Championship promises to be one to remember with a star studded field and absolute gem for a golf course in the TPC Sawgrass stadium course. I make the yearly pilgrimage to the course to see this championship play out, and this year will be no different! But before I hit the road to give you guys some on course insight, it’s time to deep dive what to expect from the course this week and devise a Round 1 Prop gameplan to crush our exposure. Let’s dive in, shall we?

2025 Free Play Record:

Before we go through the details for TPC Sawgrass, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.

Sentry 1-1  (-1 unit)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️

Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌

Sony 1-1  (-1 unit)

JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌

Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️

AMEX 2-0  (+1.75 units)

Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️

Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better✔️

Farmers 2-0 (+2.24 units)

Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️

Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️

Pebble 1-1 (-1 unit)

Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️

Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌

WM Phoenix Open 1-1 (-1 unit)

JJ Spaun Over 12.5 GIR❌

Akshay Bhatia Over 7.5 FIR✔️

Genesis 2-0 (+1.7 units)

Hoge O 73.5 Strokes✔️

C Bez O 73.5 Strokes✔️

Mexico Open 1-1 (-1 unit)

Fox Under 69 Strokes✔️

Rai Under 13.5 GIR❌

Cognizant Classic 2-0 (+1.75 units)

Jordan Spieth Under 69.5 Strokes✔️

Luke Clanton Under 69.5 Strokes✔️

Arnold Palmer Invit. 1-1 (-1 unit)

Xander Schauffele Over 71.5 Strokes✔️

Collin Morikawa Over 71.5 Strokes❌

Hit rate: 14-6 year-to-date (70% hit rate)

Profit/Loss: +1.44 units year to date

Course conditions played just like we expected, if not actually harder with the +2.61 scoring average, but Collin had other plans with his low round.He hooked us by .5 strokes, or else it would have been another cash on the year.

Tournament details:

Field size –  144

Cut – Top 65 and ties

Returning Champ – Scottie Scheffler (-20)

Past Champs – Scheffler, C. Smith, J. Thomas, H. Matsuyama, R. McIlroy, W. Simpson

Purse – $25 million

Course Details:

TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course

Par – 72

Length – 7,352 yards

Green type –  TifEagle bermudagrass / Poa trivialis overseed 

Designer – Pete Dye

# of Bunkers – 92

# of holes w/ water –  17

Rough – Champion fine ryegrass overseed 4” 

Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)

Below are the averages from the last 3 years at TPC Sawgrass

2024 Prop Based averages:

If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!

Approach distribution:

Like last week’s API, the approach distribution is pretty balanced and requires players to hit approach shots with almost every club in the bag.

How to model at the 2025 Players Championship

Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.

SG: Off the Tee

• Both driving accuracy and distance matter around TPC Sawgrass, hence why overall off the tee play is the best measure for success this week

Distance from Edge of Fairway

• Accuracy does come into play quite a bit though, with water in play on 17 of 18 holes. Being able to avoid the big number is key to placing well

SG: Approach

• Iron play is a keystone to any shots gained model, but especially at what we would consider a “second shot golf course”

SG: Approach 125-200 yards

• The 125-200 yard buckets are utilized a hair more than your typical course, so a bit of extra weighting was put there by the BTN crew

SG: Around the Green (on Overseed)

• We have overseed rough around the green this week, so taking players with a propensity to chip well on the surface is a good idea

SG: Putting 6-18 feet

• Putting from 6 to 18 feet can be a key separator around TPC Sawgrass, so focusing on players who excel in that range could prove fruitful 

In terms of comp courses, 3 come to mind:

1. PGA National (Championship course) 
2. Harbour Town GL
3. TPC River Highlands

All are shorter tracks that highlight a similar off the tee profile, and also test players on approach across their entire bag. Using past performances at these events could prove helpful for cross over analysis. 

Round 1 Game Plan

Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday

Thursday’s weather forecast:

It’s a little bit early to be looking at the weather forecast for Thursday, but with me needing to get this out early it’s what’s necessary this week. All of the models seem to agree that conditions should be relatively calm for Round 1. It also rained in the area Sunday night/Monday morning so it could be a bit softer to start the week too.

Round 1 Free Play

We got a board super early on Prize Picks, so our exposure is going to be on that side of things. This pays 3x on that site with the anticorrelation between these two spots. If they do add them on Underdog though, you will be able to snag them for a 3.24x payout so keep an eye out for that potentially.

Dahmen Over 3.5 BOB

• Joel has covered this line in 10 of his last 12 rounds around TPC Sawgrass, and with his excellent iron form lately, having gained 1.16 SG approach/round over his last 12 rounds, I like the form heading into this comfortable event for him as well. The BOB average was 4.1+ last year so even a slightly below average round would cover, and with some of the rain they got today I think the course will still be a bit soft Thursday Am when Dahmen tees off.

Potgieter Over 71.5 Strokes

• I love Aldy and think he’s got a bright future, but this course is going to be an issue for him this early in his career. He still sprays the ball off the tee, and that was his main issue at the API where he lost nearly 5 strokes with his driver because of water balls. There’s water in play on 17 of the 18 holes here, and unless he really cleans that up I think he could struggle a bit hence why I’m playing him to shoot even par or worse even with a softer golf course.

Let’s see if we can get back on the cash train and push further into the profit. I’m looking forward to getting out there myself this week, and feel free to come say hi if you’ll be out there yourself. I’ll buy you a beer if that’s your sort of thing.

Best of luck, and let’s have a week!

On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)