We had a couple week break from golf, but I sure am ready to hop back into it for this week’s Procore Championship! We get a better than usual field with most of the U.S. Ryder Cup team teeing it up and even world #1 Scottie in the field.
Here in this preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your prop and betting exposure with a full breakdown of the course and conditions for Thursday. That’ll include course details, analytics via BTN, modeling, a weather report and our Round 1 free play. By the end you’ll be completely prepared to attack the prop boards and have a week. Without further adieu, let’s get this thing going!
Tour Championship Prop recap:
Sam Burns Under 69.5 Strokes
- With the course playing almost 3 strokes under par and easier like expected, this was almost a non-sweat for us, with anything -1.75 SG or better being a hit for us. Easy money!
Rory McIlroy Under 68.5 Strokes
- With the scoring average being so low, even this Rory lean wasn’t too difficult to secure. He could lose strokes to the field and still cover for us, which given his track record at East Lake was just a mere formality.
Season-Long Hit rate: 41-27-2 year-to-date (60.3% hit rate)
After going 2-0 on our slip and cashing out for 2.75x, our hit rate for the year creeps back over 60%! Profit wise we are now more than +10 units into the green on these free plays, but let’s try and add on that here in this Fall swing.
Tournament details:
The Procore Championship is a “regular” PGA tour event, with a full sized field and regular cutline rules unlike the Fedex Cup Playoffs.
Field size – 144 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ –Patton Kizzire -20
Past Champs – Theegala, Homa x2, Cink
Purse – $6 million
Course Details:
Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) – Napa, Ca
Par – 72
Length – 7,138 yards
Avg Green Size – 5,400 sq. ft/green
Green type – Poa/Bent
Designer – Ben Harmon (1955)
Number of bunkers – 53 bunkers
Water Hazards – 2 holes with water
Rough – 2.5” Rye/Bluegrass
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at Silverado:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from the last 3 seasons at Silverado Resort and Spa (North).
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
Driving Bias:
When breaking down the driving profile of Silverado, one will find that it’s not a distance reliant venue. It only ranks as a 5.9/10 in the “bomber’s paradise” metric, and as one of the shortest par 72s that these players face, it’s more about keeping yourself in position with driver.
Approach distribution:
Narrowing our focus onto approach play reveals that players will have a TON of shots from 150 yards and in. Hitting wedges is critical to having success at the Procore Championship and add extra emphasis to that part of the bag is a wise choice.
How to model at the 2025 ProcoreChampionship:
In order to model at the 2025 Procore Championship and find the top players of the week, BTN is using 8 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
“Regular” SG Categories (OTT, APP, ATG)
- Form is always a key part of any shots gained model, and using tee to green play here is wise to do so.
SG Puttting – Poa
- To narrow down the putting stats for this week, BTN is using Bent/Poa and Poa putting stats. Players that have found historical success on the type of grass are worthy of a few extra looks.
Approach 100-175 Yards
- Because of the shorter iron distribution, focusing on wedges and short irons is key at this event.
Approach Rough 100-150 Yards
- The fairway rate is at about 6.5/round so even very accurate drivers will need to hit approaches from the 2.5 inch bluegrass rough.
Par 5 Scoring
- With the 4 par 5s in play, taking advantage of the easy scoring looks is going to be important.
SG Silverado
- Course history is always a solid data point to include in your modeling.
When we put it all together our top 5 players this week are: Scottie Scheffler, David Lipsky, Emiliano Grillo, David Skinns and Victor Perez. While we have a stud like Scottie up top, it’s nice to have some diamonds in the rough up there as well.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Weather wise it looks ideal for Thursday’s action. Sustained winds should stay below 10mph for the entire day, and wind gusts are pretty minimal as well. I would expect scoring to be around last year’s averages at the very worst, if not slightly better in categories like strokes, BOBs and BOWs.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our free play for Round 1 is this 2 leg on Underdog that pays 3.09x. It has some anticorrelation hence the added payout, but fairway lines aren’t always correlated to scoring so it’s nothing I’m too worried about on this combination.
Justin Thomas U 7.5 Fairways Hit
- The course has had 2 fairways widened since 2024, but the pricing on these books seems to have overcompensated. The average is almost always in the 6-6.7 range at this event so a player like JT would have to gain about 1.5 fairways to the field to cover that sort of line. Even if we raise the average by 0.5 and put the field at about 7/round after the changes, this is still value to the under. He ranks #146 on tour in driving accuracy, nearly dead last in this field, and an average day would be an under for us. Which given his track record off the tee could be asking a lot from him as he’s been spraying it. On DK he’s also juiced -135 for his under so there’s a bit of line value on this spot.
Scottie Scheffler Over 5.5 Birdies or Better
- With the perfect weather forecast I do like some positive stance plays too though, especially on categories like BOBs that are more condition dependent. Scottie is the #1 birdie maker on tour as I’m sure all of you already know, so with the field average at about 4/round last year I’m taking this lean. He averages about a birdie gained to the field for the year, but we have to keep in mind that this field is MUCH weaker than most on tour. He’s #1 despite playing the hardest courses and in the hardest fields of golf, so that 1 BOB/round difference rises quite substantially this week with it being one of the weaker fields of the year (once you get past the US Ryder Cup guys). He’s -135 for his over on DK so there’s also a little bit of juice in our favor which is nice.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
