One week before the US Open, our neighbors to the north host their own national open! The tour heads to Canada for what should be a great warmup for next week in Oakmont.
Here in this preview we’ll be going through everything you need to know before betting at this week’s RBC Canadian Open. We’ll go through what we know about TPC Toronto, the venue this week, as well as our modeling, a weather report and of course our Round 1 free play. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Hideki Matsuyama Over 8.5 Fairways❌
J.J. Spaun U 4 BOB ✔️
Season-Long Hit rate: 25-19 year-to-date (56.8% hit rate)
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Robert MacIntyre (-16)
Past Champs – Taylor, McIlroy (x2), D. Johnson, Vegas
Purse – $9.8 million
Course Details:
TPC Toronto (North) – Caledon, ON
Par – 70
Length – 7,389 yards
Green type – Bent/Poa mix
Designer – Doug Carrick (2001), Ian Andrew redesign in 2023
# of Bunkers – 48
# of holes w/ water – 3
Rough – 3.75” Bluegrass
How to model at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving looks to be pretty balanced around this course with both accuracy and distance being rewarded, and ideally if players can accomplish both they’ll be gaining significant strokes to the field
SG Approach
- Iron play is always something to focus on heading into an event, and this week is no different at TPC Toronto
Approach: 120-200 Yards
- Based on the overhead views, the 120 to 200 yard range looks to be utilized a bit more than most at this sort of track, so focusing our efforts on that part of the bag could be helpful
SG Around the Green
- Chipping won’t be as important as it will be next week at the US Open, but it’s still something we have to incorporate at some point into our models regardless of course
SG Putting (Bent/Poa + Bent)
- Putting form matters, and if we want to narrow it down to a surface using Bent/Poa and Bent stats like BTN is a great addition
Bogey Avoidance
- With 4 inch rough, misses are going to be penalized this week and making sure we target players who strategically avoid mistakes could prove fruitful
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (GFS model via windy.com)
The HRRR model hasn’t quite loaded in yet, but per the GFS you can see that we should be getting pretty ideal scoring conditions for Thursday. Not only is it calm for most of the day with mild temperatures, but the area is also supposed to get about a half inch of rain Wednesday night/Thursday morning that should soften this place up. I would expect to see some of the best scoring of the week Round 1 with conditions lining up for birdies in bunches. Something around a -1 to -1.5 scoring average wouldn’t surprise me, along with around a 4-4.25 BOB average for the field (which is high for a par 70).
Round 1 Free Play
Our Round 1 Free Play pays 2.75x on Prize Picks combining two positive stance plays that go off Thursday morning when conditions should be there for the taking!
Keith Mitchell Under 68.5 Strokes
- Killa Keith is the #1 scoring average player on tour in Round 1, and with a course that should suit his game I love this under. It will be soft with some of the rain they are expecting Wednesday night/Thursday AM and a bomber and long iron player like Keith will have perfect conditions to attack. I project the field average to be around -1 to -1.5 which would mean Keith needs to gain about a stroke to the field to cover which is something I’ll play round 1 with his tendency to start hot.
Nicolai Hojgaard Over 4 Birdies or Better
- Nico is the #23 BOB% player on tour and gets to tee off early when it’ll be calm and soft. With his length off the tee and long iron prowess I think this course sets up pretty well for him and if I think the BOB average will be in the 4-4.25 range then this is obvious value for the over. He brings plenty of push equity to the table at 4 BOB, with the upside to go over in what should be ideal scoring conditions.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
