It’s hard to believe that we have a signature event the week after maybe the best Masters of all time, but here we are! On top of a stunning Harbour Town GL that I’ve made the golf pilgrimage to multiple times, almost all of the PGA Tour’s best will be teeing it up.
Here in this preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your prop betting action, including course details, analytics, modeling, weather + our Round 1 FREE PLAY for Thursday. Let’s hop on in!
2025 Free Play Record:
Masters
Hovland O 10.5 GIR ✔️
Homa U 10.5 GIR ❌
Hit rate: 18-12 year-to-date (60% hit rate)
It’s now been 4 straight events where we’ve gone 1-1 on these plays with a close call for the miss. This time Homa played like prime Tiger and got to 12 GIRs to sink us, but eventually we’ll get the breaks to go our way for a 2-0 instead of a 1-1.
Tournament details:
Field size – 72
Cut – No Cut
Returning Champ – Scheffler (-19)
Past Champs – Fitzpatrick, Spieth, Cink, Simpson, Pan, Kodaira
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
Harbour Town Golf Links
Par – 71
Length – 7,213 yards
Green type – Poa Triv. Overseed
Designer – Pete Dye
# of Bunkers – 51
# of holes w/ water – 18
Rough – 1.5” Rye overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Harbour Town.
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
This week’s approach distribution skews pretty heavily into the 126-175 range, with more shots coming in that range than any other this week and 2 more than the PGA Tour average. Putting some extra emphasis here is a good idea.
How to model at the 2025 RBC Heritage
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- The BTN guys are looking at regular off the tee play which makes sense here, as accuracy and power are rewarded around this sort of track.
SG Approach
- Iron play is a pillar to any SG analysis, so including “regular” approach stats heading in is never a bad idea.
SG ARG: Overseed
- Rather than just “regular” SG ARG, BTN is looking at ARG stats on Overseed which is the same type of grass players will face this week.
PUTT: Overseed
- Just like our ARG stats, Putting is also broken down to stats on Overseed which will help us identify players who have familiarity on this strain of grass.
APP: 140-200
- On top of just the 125-175 range being utilized more, we can be a bit more specific and really narrow that down to 140-200 yards for a majority of approaches making our model even more specific for this course.
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- This is another way for us to look at driving stats, and more specifically how far offline players miss when they do. Around Harbour Town the big numbers come into play when you miss far offline, so these sort of players will be at an advantage if they can keep the ball in play.
PUTT: Overseed from 8-15 ft
- On top of just regular putting stats, the 8-15 footers around Harbour Town are where players tend to separate themselves putting, so putting some extra emphasis on this bucket (just like with approach) is a good idea to see who fits this track the best.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
While temperatures will be a bit cooler in the morning, winds will be almost nonexistent so scoring should be there for the first half of tee times. In the afternoon the wind is supposed to kick up a bit to around 10mph sustained, but the temperatures will also be milder and help erase some of the wind impact.
Though the weather looks close to ideal, keep in mind that last year’s scoring was about as good as we’ve ever seen at Hilton Head, and with the area not getting a ton of rain this month there’s a chance it’s a bit firmer and faster this time around. I would expect scoring to be a bit harder than last year, not so much because of the weather, but more so based on conditions heading in.
Round 1 Free Play
Our free play for the RBC Heritage is going to be over on Underdog for a 3.56x payout!
Patrick Cantlay Over 4.5 Birdies or Better (1.1x multi)
- Cantlay is -140 for his over on Fanduel and -135 on Draftkings so there’s some line value here even on a 50-50 prop, but with the 1.1x multiplier its an even better spot to mix in. He has elite course history with him having gone 3rd 3rd 2nd his last 3 starts here and he’s been one of the most consistent players in the world SG wise, having gained strokes to the field in over 15 straight events heading into this week. I do think the greens could be a bit bouncier this year and could lead to more missed greens, but a BOB line like this is less impacted by firm greens than a strokes or bogey line.
Max Homa Over 69.5 Strokes
- Max showed up for the first time all year at last week’s Masters, but I still have some concerns with his form heading in and I like the value on this fade. With a slightly more fiery course this year I could see the scoring average being closer to -1 or even a little worse this time around, which means even an average day would likely be an over at this 69.5 projection. And considering before last week he had lost strokes to the field in 5 straight events worldwide, I don’t think we can magically expect him to go back to his old ways all of a sudden. I’ll have to see more of a sample size from him before I become a believer again. On books he doesn’t have a line for comparison, but even guys like Thomas Detry who grade out better this week are -140 for their over at this number (Draftkings line) so an out of form player like Homa could be even better value.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
