This week on the PGA Tour schedule we have the Rocket Mortga.. I mean Rocket Classic. I’m not sure when we dropped the “Mortgage” part of the title, but luckily Detroit Golf Club wasn’t a part any marketing changes!

Here in this blog I’ll be prepping you with all of the info you need this week before betting any props. That’ll include a full breakdown of DGC, my modeling, a weather report, and of course our Round 1 prop slip. We’ve got a ton to dive into, so let’s get this thing rocking!

Last week’s Prop recap:

Wyndham Clark U 9 Fairways ✔️

Russell Henley O 4 BOB ❌

Season-Long Hit rate: 27-22-1 year-to-date (55.1% hit rate)

Last week’s blog went 1-1 on our props. Clark’s under was sweat free despite him having one of the best rounds of the day which shows the sort of value we locked in on that spot. Henley had a decent day himself with a -2 bogey free round, but we needed a lot more birdie production from him to cash out on the BOB over. A cold putter got us on that one unfortunately. Let’s see if we can go 2-0 this time around and cash the full slip. 

Tournament details:

Field size – 156 players

Cut – Top 65 and ties

Returning Champ – Cam Davis (-18)

Past Champs – Fowler, Finau, Davis. DeChambeau, Lashley

Purse – $9.6 million

Course Details:

Detroit Golf Club (North)

Par – 72

Length – 7,370 yards

Green type – Bent/Poa

Designer – Donald Ross

# of Bunkers – 87

# of holes w/ water – 1

Rough – 4” Bluegrass mix

Stat Averages from the last 3 years at Detroit Golf Club:

Because this is a course we see often on tour, we have plenty of data to work with. Speaking of, here are the stat averages from the last 3 years at the Rocket Classic so you have a baseline of what to expect this week. 

2024 Prop Based Averages:

If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!

Driving Bias:

Detroit Golf Club has long been known as a “bombers” course, and the driving analytics back that up, with players 20 yards longer than average gaining about 1.81 SG/round to the field. Shorter hitters aren’t dead (see Lashley, past winner), but distance is preferable at this track. 

Approach distribution:

There are a ton of short par 4s around DGC that lead to a plethora of wedges into greens. As such, there’s some extra emphasis on approach from 150 yards and in which you can see reflected on the graphic below. 

How to model at the 2025 Rocket Classic: 

In order to model at the Rocket Classic and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 5 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together. 

SG Off the Tee

• Driving is being weighed in a balanced fashion this week by BTN, with OTT form heading in mixed im

Approach 75-160 Yards

• If you want to narrow down the approach play to cater it to this course, looking at shots from 75-160 yards is a good idea

SG Around the Green

• Missing greens isn’t a great idea to begin with, so the weighting isn’t much here, but you can’t ignore ARG completely

Putting 8-15 Feet

• The 8 to 15 foot range is a key separator at DGC so adding some extra emphasis there could prove fruitful

Birdie or better percentage

• Getting to 20+ under par requires aggression and real firepower, so looking at players who make birdie often is a key at this event

Round 1 Game Plan

Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.

Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)

Not only does it look like these guys could get some rain during play tomorrow, but they’ve also gotten some early in the week which should have the course soft for players tomorrow. Winds don’t look too out of hand, so I think we see scoring for the taking Thursday. Something a bit better than last year’s averages wouldn’t surprise me at all, perhaps closer to -2 for a scoring average.

Round 1 Free Play:

Our free play for Thursday’s action is going to be a 2 leg slip on Prize Picks that pays 2.75x!

Matt McCarty Over 4.5 Birdies or Better

• McBuckets is the #40 BOB% player on tour and with what I project to be a 4.25-4.5 BOB average, I’ll take him to make 5+ with his excellent course fit. He thrives at courses that are wedge and putter heavy, and that’s exactly what we get this week. Though he has a PM tee time, winds aren’t ever expected to get too bad tomorrow so I’m still fine with this lean.

Jacob Bridgeman Under 69.5 Strokes

• Jacob hasn’t been in the spotlight as much the last month, but that’s likely due to playing courses that don’t fit his game and in fields that are much stronger than he’s used to. He earned his way into all the big boy events, so it was to be expected for him to take a bit of a step back. Now though he’s back in your “regular” PGA tour field and gets a course fit that’s right up his alley. Like Matt, he prefers shorter tracks that lean into wedge play and putting which is perfect for Detroit Golf Club. The scoring average could be around -2 or so tomorrow, which means he’d have to gain about a stroke to the field to cover which is reasonable with the morning tee time.

That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!

On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)