It’s the last week of the 2025 Fall Swing, and some players have their playing privileges on the line! The RSM Classic wraps up this season and gives us golf fans the last taste of real golf for the year. We get a full 156 player field and 2 golf courses to work with, and it’s a course that I’m personally very familiar with having been to the event 4 of the last 5 years and having played both tracks as well.
Here in this preview we’ll be breaking down everything you need to know before placing any bets. That’ll include course details for both tracks, analytics via BTN, modeling, a weather report, and our Round 1 Free Play for this week! Fresh off a cash at the Bermuda Championship, let’s finish this year strong! Without further adieu, let’s hop in.
Bermuda Championship Prop recap:
Our slip last week ended up going 2-0 for a 2.58x cash! Conditions were tough with the 30+ mph winds and although Luke made it close on us, we finished into the green regardless!
Season-Long Hit rate: 49-31-2 year-to-date (61.25% hit rate)
For the year that puts us at over a 61% hit rate on these free props, quite the season!
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – McNealy (-16)
Past Champs – Aberg, Svensson, Gooch, Streb, Duncan
Purse – $7 million
Course Details:
Seaside Course
Par – 70
Length – 7,005 yards
Avg Green Size – around 7,200 sq. ft/green
Green type – TifEagle Bermudagrass
Designer – Harry Colt and Charles Alison (1929), Tom Fazio (1999) renovation
Rough – Perennial ryegrass overseed 2”
Plantation Course
Par – 72
Length – 7,060 yards
Avg Green Size – around 6,100 sq. ft/green
Green type – TifEagle bermudagrass
Designer – Walter Travis (1928), Davis Love III (2019) renovation
Rough – TifTuf bermudagrass 2”
Stat Averages from the last three years at the Sea Island Seaside Course:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from the last three years at the Sea Island Seaside course.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get at each course. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
How to model at the 2025 RSM Classic:
In order to model at the 2025 RSM Classic and find the top players of the week, BTN is using 7 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving is a balanced test at these two courses, and although power isn’t necessary, it helps at the Plantation course and the par 5s at Seaside. Keeping the ball out of water hazards will be the primary concern though.
SG Approach
- Iron form is always something we want to look at in a SG model, and this week is no different.
APP 120-180 Yards
- With the amount of layups off the tee, almost half of the approach shots this week will come in this 60 yard bucket. Adding emphasis to these shots is a good idea as a result.
SG Around the Green
- Chipping matters more this week than at some of the recent birdie fests.
SG Putting
- We can’t forget about putting either, especially with good scoring conditions expected. Something -20 or better likely wins.
PUTT 10-20 Feet
- The 10-20 foot range has been a key separator at Sea Island over the years, so adding emphasis to that range could prove fruitful.
Birdie or Better Percentage %
- With calm conditions forecasted, we need guys who can go low all weekend. Looking at the top birdie makers can help us target the most aggressive players on tour.
Putting it all together, the BTN top 5 is Rico Hoey, Matt Wallace, Davis Thompson, Patrick Fishburn and Keith Mitchell!
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
The weather looks ideal for Thursday’s play. Temperatures will be mild, winds low, and there’s little to no risk of any inclement weather too. I expect both courses to play solidly under par, and probably a bit easier than last year overall. The Plantation course should be -2 or easier and the Seaside course could be in the -1.5 to -2 range too. The Seaside track tends to be more impacted by the wind and without any it has historically played almost as easy as the Plantation course. The par change from 70 to 72 (from Seaside to Plantation) changes how we look at the stroke lines, but scoring to par should be pretty consistent. Birdie averages should rise a bit too, and bogey or worse averages should fall a bit.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our free play is going to be this 2.75x 2 man on Prize Picks. It pays a bit less than the typical 3x because of the correlation between these two.
Andrew Novak Under 68 Strokes
- With calm conditions the Seaside course has played between -2 and -3 historically, meaning that Novak would just need to match the field average to push this sort of line. And considering he made the tour championship last year and is a solid course fit at a positional course like this, I like this under with the push equity at -2.
Sahith Theegala Under 68 Strokes
- Sahith has become a bit of a forgotten man, but maybe he’s back on the rise with 3 straight made cuts and shots gained to the field in 5 straight starts. He has a 2nd place finish at this course 3 years ago, is a former tour winner, and a year ago would have been the favorite or 2nd favorite in this sort of field. He had some injury stuff going on but the recent results have me optimistic on his chances and if he’s healthy this is an absolute steal at the projected field average (or potentially even worse than it)
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
