We’ve made it to event #2 of the Fall swing, the Sanderson Farms Championship. It might not be a major championship or anything, but we still have golf to bet on!
Here in this preview I’ll be going through all of the info you need before placing any bets. That’ll include a full course breakdown, some modeling notes, a weather report, and our Round 1 free play that pays 3x on Prize Picks if we go 2-0. We’ve got a ton to deep dive, so let’s just hop on in!
Procore Championship Prop recap:
Scottie Scheffler Over 5.5 Birdies or Better
- Despite winning the golf tournament by Sunday, world #1 went under his birdie line for Round 1, a bit of a disappointment given that conditions cooperated for us
Justin Thomas Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
- The other side of our slip wasn’t too much of a sweat at all. JT only hit 3 of his 14 fairways and was under for us by hole #12. Solid value locked up there.
Season-Long Hit rate: 42-28-2 year-to-date (60% hit rate)
- It would have been nice to go 2-0 and secure some units, but our plays are still hitting at a pretty incredible 60% clip for the year
Tournament details:
Field size – 132 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Kevin Yu (-23)
Past Champs – List, Hughes, Burns, Garcia
Purse – $6 million
Course Details:
Country Club of Jackson
Par – 72
Length – 7,461 yards
Avg Green Size – 6,200 sq. ft/green
Green type – Champion Bermudagrass
Designer – John Fought with Mike Gogel (2008)
Number of bunkers – 56 bunkers
Water Hazards – 5 holes with water
Rough – 2.5” Bermuda/Zoysia
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at CC of Jackson:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from the last 3 seasons at Country Club of Jackson
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
Driving Bias:
CC of Jackson is an extremely lenient course off the tee. As such our emphasis on Off the Tee stats will be the lowest of the entire fall swing. If there’s anything to lean into its driving distance because of a player’s ability to reach the par 5s in 2, but it isn’t a prerequisite for success.
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution at CC of Jackson skews shorter than a lot of tracks on tour, and focusing on the 175 yard and in range is a good idea in any of your modeling.
How to model at the 2025 Sanderson Farms Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Sanderson Farms Championship and find the top players of the week, I’m using 6 “key stats” in my modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
“Regular” SG Metrics (Last 24 Rounds)
- Form is always important to throw into any good shots gained model, and this week is no different.
Driving Distance (Last 24 Rounds)
- Distance is more important than accuracy this week, with about a 50% fairway rate and hard to reach par 5s it’s a simple way to separate yourself from the field.
Approach 75-150 yards
- Iron play can be narrowed down to the shorter proximity buckets for well over half of the approach shots. As such, focusing on players who excel there could prove fruitful.
Putting – Bermuda
- The grainy Bermuda greens at CC of Jackson lead to polarization of the putting stats, with players who excel on the surface getting a significant bump in my modeling.
SG TPC Craig Ranch
- TPC Craig Ranch plays very similar to CC of Jackson, with some length but tons of scoring to be had. Finding some poppers from that event is a good idea.
When we put it all together, my top 5 this week is Jesper Svensson, Nicolai Hojgaard, Cameron Champ, Michael Thorbjorsen and Vince Whaley, a power hitting bunch!
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Thursday’s weather forecast looks pretty average overall, with a bit of wind but nothing too worrisome but just enough to be a slight factor. With mild temperatures and no forecasted precipitation, scoring should be on par with what we are used to at this track. With scoring landing somewhere between -1 to -2, perhaps easier depending on pin locations (which will drop later tonight).
Round 1 Free Play:
Our free slip for the Sanderson Farms will be a 2 leg parlay on Prize Picks that pays 3x if we go 2-0. It also has push equity with the fairway under at 8.
Rasmus Hojgaard Under 8 Fairways
- Rasmus is a below average driving accuracy player, ranking #88 on the DPWT and averaging about 0.3 fairways lost/round, so with the average at this course hovering in the 7.25-7.5 range this is solid value under with the push equity at 8 in our back pocket.
J.T. Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
- The Post man has been playing really solid golf the last year and to end 2025 had some solid results in playoff events, which were far stronger fields than the rest of his peers have been playing in. So although he’s “only” gaining about 0.75 SG/round over his last 12 rounds, they were much more impactful/impressive rounds so that must be kept in mind. He’s an excellent Bermuda putter historically and also has a 3rd place finish at this course before, and with his sportsbook line juiced -130 for the over there’s a bit of a lean from that perspective as well.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
