Week #2 of the PGA Tour season keeps us in the Aloha state for this week’s Sony Open! On top of being the first full-field event of 2025, players also have the first 36 hole cut to contend with as well. Here in this breakdown we’ll be previewing what to expect from Waialae Country Club as well as how to approach the prop boards for Round 1.
Tournament details:
Field size – 144 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Grayson Murray (RIP)
Past Champs – Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Cameron Smith, Matt Kuchar
Purse – $8.7 million
Fedex Cup points – 500 to winner
Course Details:
Waialae Country Club
Par – 70
Length – 7,044 yards
Green type – Bermudagrass
Avg Green size – 7,100 sq. ft/green
Designer: Seth Raynor (1927)
# of Bunkers – 83
Water Hazards – 4
Rough – 2” Bermudagrass
Hole Composition:
We have a typical par 70 setup for this week
4 Par 3s
2 Par 5s
12 Par 4s
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Waialae CC
2024 Prop Based averages at Waialae CC:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw #s so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
Waialae’s approach distribution is skewed much shorter than we saw at Kapalua. There will be a TON of shots from 125-175 and a good portion coming from the rough as well with how narrow the fairways are.
How to model at the Sony Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit at Waialae CC. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
#1: Distance from Edge of fairway
- Distance from the edge of the fairway is a way for us to measure how precise players are off the tee and their ability to keep the ball in play. With such tight driving corridors this week, the more accurate players in the field will see a distinct advantage this week
#2: SG Approach
- Approach play is the hallmark of any sort of shots gained analysis and at a “2nd shot” golf course like this is going to be especially important
#3: SG ARG Bermuda
- Just like last week in Maui, we will be narrowing our ARG research to Bermuda courses as the grainy surface demands more than usual from these tour pros
#4: SG Putt Bermuda
- We are also narrowing down our putting research to a player’s Bermudagrass baseline
#5: Left Rough %
- Perhaps my favorite stat on the BTN model this week. With how many holes dogleg from right to left at this track making sure you don’t miss on the inside side of the dogleg is going to be crucial
#6: SG APP 100-185 Rough
- With the low fairway rate around Waialae (just over 57%), even your more accurate drivers will need to extract the ball from this Bermudagrass rough that is supposed to be a bit more substantial this year
#7: Putt 8-20 feet
- Looking at past putting data around Waialae you’ll find that players have a TON of birdie putts from 8-20 feet. As such, putting some extra emphasis on those putts could be useful this week
Last week I had a handful of stats to add on top of the BTM model, but this week I’m pretty much in lock step with what they have already! As such, all we have to add are the comps:
#1: Port Royal GC
- Home of the Bermuda Championship, Another short Bermuda track that’s ~7,000 yards
#2: Harbour Town GL
- Harbour Town is also a positional Bermuda track that demands a ton of precision OTT
#3: TPC Southwind
- Short, positional, Bermuda track. Higher strength of field though
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
3 of the 5 models are calling for pretty significant wind tomorrow with only the NAM model calling for anything remotely calm. If it gets into the 13-15 mph range it will start to impact scoring and historically we’ve seen the scoring go from the -1.5/-1 range to closer to even par on harder scoring days. Low scores will still be out there for some, but it won’t be anywhere near the birdie fest that we had at the Sentry. I’m projecting for a -0.25 to -0.5 scoring average and somewhere around a 3.5-3.75 BOB average for Thursday.
Round 1 Free Play (Prize Picks 3x slip)
Now that we’ve got the game plan, let’s execute and find a few props to attack tomorrow!
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
- JT Poston is an over on birdies or better I’ll play with the soft greens we’ve heard about this week. While winds will be up a bit round 1, birdie production is less impacted than strokes or bogey lines on blustery days and the receptiveness of the greens could actually make up for a lot of the effect. Sites like Fanduel/Caesers seem to share this sentiment as they have a majority of the top level players at 4.5 or 5.5 BOB, with most of the 4.5s juiced in the -140 to -165 range over. Though Poston doesn’t have a direct line for comparison I would put him in the same range as a Keegan Bradley, Robert Macintyre, etc. who are all at least -140 juice for the over. With him finishing 6th here last year and with other top finishes at comp courses, he fits this sort of golf course particularly well and comes into the week with some of the best approach form of his career. This event could be a big one for Poston if he gets the putter to heat back up after losing putting at The Sentry.
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes
- On the other side of this slip I mixed in an over on strokes so that the payout would be better and to take advantage of some of these PM winds. As the day goes on most of the forecasts get breezier and breezier so a later starter like Dahmen could get the “bad” side of the draw tomorrow. With what I expect to be a slightly under par scoring average, even nearly a shot gained to the field would be an over at -1 and to go under this line he’d have to gain almost 2 strokes to the field. With his sketchy form to say the least, having lost strokes to the field in 10 of his last 13 starts, I’ll play this over. He does have two decent finishes at the Sony Open with a T22 and T12 finish in the past, but his last two starts at Waialae CC have both been missed cuts so he’s trending the wrong way. Books like DK/FD/Caesers only really have elite players posted on the board round 1 so there’s no real way to compare this line but with the field average expected to be near 69.5, this should be a solid over.
This slip pays 3x because of the inclusion of both a fade and positive stance play. The anticorrelation is something I’ll still enter because of the ability to take a player earlier when conditions won’t be as blustery and when the players will have softer greens to play with. Underdog Fantasy didn’t have a board posted quite yet but if the same lines are available there later on you may want to consider playing it over there as anticorrelated slips get boosted payouts. But that all depends on their pricing of course.
That’s all I’ve got for the Sony Open. Let’s have a week!
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