The Florida swing was a lot of fun, but the tour now heads to Texas for this week’s Houston Open, which will be a nice warmup for the Masters in just two weeks!
Memorial Park GC is one of the nicest public golf facilities in the world, and some players have even called it a good comparison for the conditions at Augusta National. I suppose it’s no surprise then that world #1 and #2 are teeing it up at the Houston Open.
Here in this blog we’ll be deep diving the course as well as going over a game plan for your Round 1 Prop exposure. By the end you’ll be an expert on course conditions, and you’ll have a plan to attack your Underdog and Prize Picks bets. Let’s dive on in, shall we?
2025 Free Play Record:
Before we go through the details for Memorial Park, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
Valspar Championship
Sam Burns O 3.5 BOB✔️
Michael Kim U 71.5 Strokes❌
Hit rate: 16-8 year-to-date (66.7% hit rate)
Kim sold last week’s slip with far too many bogies on Thursday. His birdie production was adequate, but making 5+ bogeys is going to be hard to overcome. It’s been a bit of an annoying stretch having gone 1-1 the last 3 events with our Round 1 slip, but the reads have been close to full cashing every time so let’s try and get one to go our way this time around.
Tournament details:
Field size – 155
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – S. Jaeger (-12)
Past Champs – Finau, Kokrak, Ortiz, Griffin, Poulter
Purse – $9.5 million
Course Details:
Memorial Park Golf Course
Par – 70
Length – 7,475 yards
Green type – TifEagle bermudagrass / Poa trivialis overseed
Designer – Bredemus (1936), Renovation by Doak in 2019
# of Bunkers – 21
# of holes w/ water – 4
Rough – 1.25” Ryegrass Overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at Memorial Park.
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution at Memorial Park skews slightly longer than most courses, with some extra emphasis from 126-175 and 176-225.
How to model at the 2025 Houston Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving is key at a long par 70 like this, but could be even more of a factor this week if its playing softer than usual. A 7,500 yard course with 5 par 3s could be playing as long as 7,800 effective yards.
SG Approach
- Iron play is always key on tour, and this week is no different. Approach form will always be one of the biggest predictors of future success.
Approach 150-200 Yards
- The 150-200 yard range is utilized more than usual with 3 of the 5 par 3s coming in that bucket most rounds and a lot of the 460-510 yard par 4s demanding a shot in this bucket.
Fairway Chipping
- There are a ton of shaved off fairway areas around the greens at Memorial Park so the ARG emphasis this week is on that type of surface.
SG Putting: Overseed
- The greens are overseeded at Memorial Park and because we are a solid way into 2025, looking at putting splits on the surface could prove helpful.
Ball Speed
- With the rain they are expecting Thursday/Friday and already a long course to begin with, having power is going to be key to taking on the bounty of 475+ yard par 4s this week.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday
Thursday’s weather forecast:
The winds look to progressively get worse as the day goes on, with some nasty conditions expected for the first 2-3 hours of the PM wave and the last hour or so of the AM side. Scoring will likely be harder than we got in 2024, especially before the deluge of rain they are forecasted to get Thursday night and Friday all day. After then scoring might get easier with the soft greens, but the winds tomorrow could be problematic for some, especially the PM wave.
Round 1 Free Play
Here’s the round 1 free play! This pays 3x on Prize Picks with the positive and negative stance plays mixed in, but we are playing a bit of the weather game here with am AM wave guy and a Pm wave guy mixed in together.
Stephan Jaeger Under 15.5 Pars or Better
- Though he won this event last year, he ranked #132 on the tour in bogey avoidance and was far from elite in the category. With a PM tee time when winds are supposed to kick up, I’ll take him to make 3+ bogeys, especially when the average last year was 3.2+ and the winds weren’t nearly as strong then.
Ben Griffin Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
- Ben has an early AM tee time which will be very helpful, and he’s also “+ev” value as he’s -135 or more for his over in spots. He ranked as a top 50 BOB% player last year on tour and with him having covered this line in 6 of his 8 career rounds at this course, I like the value we are locking in here on multiple fronts.
Let’s see if we can get back into the winner’s circle! Best of luck with all your exposure, and we’ll be back with our blog for Valero next week.
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
