We kick off the 2025 PGA Tour season with The Sentry this week which includes one of the strongest pound-for-pound fields of the year! In this no cut event players will look to get off to a hot start in one of the most scenic destinations the tour travels to.
On top of Hawaii boasting immense beauty, it also hosts the Kapalua Plantation course, an extremely exciting layout that is sure to lead to birdies in bunches. With a star studded field and low scoring expected, we are going to get some real fireworks this weekend! In this preview we’ll get you ready with what to expect from the Plantation course as well as a plan of attack for your modeling + prop bets. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
Tournament details:
Field size – 60 players
Cut – no cut
Returning Champ – Chris Kirk
Past Champs – Rahm, Smith, English, Thomas, Schauffele, Johnson
Purse – $20million
Fedex Cup points – 700 to winner
Kapalua Plantation Course Stat breakdown
Par – 73
Yardage – 7,596 yards
Architect(s) – Bill Coore + Ben Crenshaw
Green grass – TifEagle Bermudagrass
Average Green Size – 8,722 sq ft
Rough – 2.5” Celebration Bermudagrass
Average Fairway Width – 58 yards
Number of Sand Bunkers – 93
Hole Composition:
We have a bit of a unique setup this week in a par 73, so below is the hole composition.
3 Par 3s (one less than usual)
4 Par 5s
11 Par 4s (one more than usual)
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at the Kapalua Plantation course. As you’ll notice, the averages are easier than the PGA tour average in every single case as this is a “birdie fest”.
2024 Prop Based averages at Kapalua:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw #s so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get! Two important distinctions for this week would be that we have a rare par 73 setup and that there are 15 fairways in play because the course only has 3 par 3s.
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution around the Kapalua Plantation course is given below and is pretty balanced all things considered. A majority of birdie looks will come on the par 5s and shorter par 4s though so focusing on clubs used on those sort of holes might be advised.
How to model for The Sentry
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 5 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit at the Kapalua Plantation course. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
#1 SG Off the Tee
- SG Off the Tee gives us a measure of how well players hit their tee shots, which is going to be important at a 7,600 yard golf course. With a sizable 20% weighting it helps boost players in the model who excel with both their driving distance AND accuracy
#2 SG ARG: Bermudagrass
- The BTN model also weighs SG ARG on Bermudagrass as an important factor at 10% as there are some tricky chip shots required around this track
#3 SG Approach: 90-140 yards
- Scoring wedges are also a priority in the BTN model with the plethora of short par 4s in play this week
#4 SG Approach 180-240 yards
- The longer par 3s and par 5s require precise long iron + wood play to play effectively which is what is being tested with this key stat
#5 SG Putting Bermudagrass: 5-15 ft
- This last key stat is a player’s SG putting from 5-15 ft on Bermudagrass, the surface of the week. At a birdie fest like this making the birdies opportunities you setup is going to be vital to get to something in the -20 to -30 range
On top of what BTN has on their site, I also like the idea of including a few extra key stats to the mix such as:
Birdie or better %
- By looking at raw BOB% we can get an extra measure of a player’s scoring ability. To get to a -20 or better score, we need players comfortable well under par
Par 5 Scoring
- Though there are still only 4 par 5s in play, all 4 are reachable and are key scoring pieces if you want to get into the low 60s around Kapalua
SG Comp Courses
- A few comparable courses around the PGA tour to pull stats/finishes from could be Augusta National GC (elevation change/undulation), Black Desert Resort (Resort style course), St. Andrews Old Course (Scoring + Drivable 4s/Reachable 5s) or El Cardonal (resort style course with drivable 4s/reachable 5s)
Round 1 Prop Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try and find some value for Thursday. The first order of business is going to be checking the weather, which could have a sizable impact on the scoring at this venue. For reference, here are the averages from 2024 round to round. You’ll notice that there was nearly a 4 stroke discrepancy between the “easiest” and “hardest” rounds
2024 averages by round:
R1 68.83 (-4.17)
R2 67.47 (-5.53)
R3 70.48 (-2.52)
R4 66.67 (-6.33)
Thursday’s weather forecast:
You’ll notice that the winds are expected to be up for round 1 across almost all of the weather models. As such, we could be in for slightly harder scoring than the averages we had for last year with winds keeping scores a bit more tame. I will be adjusting my projected averages for the field by bumping up their strokes and bogies per round and slightly lowering the BOB average.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we will be hammering fades for Thursday though as we still need to look at the projections for round 1, which are going to determine where the value is. Speaking of, let’s dive into that and our free play now!
Round 1 Free Play (Prize Picks)
Here’s a 3x slip I played over on Prize Picks for round 1’s action
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes
- Xander is -150 for his under on DK and though conditions look a little bit windy, its not blown off the course bad and I think we still see some solid scoring with some course reports saying that its very soft out there. He’s won here before and loves these no cut events and with the +ev value was a no brainer to mix in. He projects as the #1 player in the DFS market, betting market, etc. so its not a surprise that he’d be value for the under.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes
- On the other side though I do like this fade on Bezuidenhout. I project the field scoring average at close to -3 to -4, so something in the 70 to 69 range so even an average day would be an over on this sort of line. And considering this is about as elite a field as we get, he’s an average player, if not slightly below average this week. We don’t have a direct line for comparison on books but Billy Horschel who is a comparable player talent wise is juiced -160 for his over on DK so its pretty safe to infer that there could be some value here as well for the over.
By mixing in an over and under together we are able to avoid some of the correlation rules on Prize Picks which would lower our payout. Sometimes correlation can be our friend when boards are severely mispriced or don’t account for weather impact but when its relatively fair pricing its best to sometimes try to run more balanced slips.
That’s all for this week’s preview for The Sentry. May we run good with our exposure this week and kick off 2025 the right way!
