We finally made it to the Tour Championship, the last event of the 2025 season! East Lake was renovated before last year’s event which I was able to see in person, so I have a ton of boots on the ground info to share. Here in this Prop and Betting preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your exposure this week, including a full breakdown of the course, modeling, weather and our round 1 free play. And after last week’s full cash, we are riding in with momentum. Let’s build on that!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Our slip from the last event ended up full cashing for a 2.85x payout!
Justin Rose Over 2.5 Bogeys or Worse✔️
- With conditions playing over par and the field average for BOBs at over 3 per round, this lean was pretty easy for us to hit.
Rory McIlroy Under 8.5 Fairways Hit✔️
- The Rose lean was clinical, but the Rory one was borderline free. He went under his line for us about half way through his round, and with the field average at about this number we secured massive value on this spot.
Season-Long Hit rate: 39-27-2 year-to-date (59.1% hit rate)
After this week’s 2-0, our season-long hit rate rises to over 59% for the year, WELL into the “+ev” range on pick ‘em sites like Prize Picks or Underdog. Let’s see if we can go 2-0 again this week and creep over a 60% hit rate for the year!
Tournament details:
The tour championship has a different format in 2025, with the starting strokes no longer a factor. It will play as a “normal” no cut event, without the handicapping.
Field size – 30 players
Cut – No Cut
Returning Champ – Scottie Scheffler (-30 with starting strokes)
Past Champs – Hovland, McIlroy, Cantlay, Johnson
Purse – $40 million
Course Details:
East Lake Golf Club – Atlanta, Georgia
Par – 70
Length – 7,440 yards
Avg Green Size – 6,238 sq. ft/green
Green type – Bermudagrass
Designer – Tom Bendelow (1904)
Number of bunkers – 78 bunkers
Water Hazards – 8 holes with water
Rough – 3.5” Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from 2024 at East Lake:
Because of the course renovation before last year’s event, we will narrow down the course analytics to just last year. Below are the averages for the field to give you an idea of how it played after all of the changes.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories, here’s what we get. It’s important to keep in mind that the course will be a par 70 this year instead of a par 71, so the averages will move around a bit to compensate for it.
Driving Bias:
Historically East Lake has been a bit of a bomber’s fest, so it ranks as a 8.9/10 in “bomber’s paradise” on BTN. It is worth noting though that last year accuracy was more important so this will be something to monitor over the next few years at East Lake.
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution at East Lake didn’t change much after renovation, and if anything skewed a bit longer due to the added length of the course. Players will have extra shots from 175 to 225 yards, so adding some extra emphasis for those buckets is a good idea this week.
How to model at the 2025 Tour Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Tour Championship and find the top plays of the week, I’m using 8 “key stats” in my modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
“Core Four” Shots Gained Categories
- Form heading in is always an important factor to consider, and the last 24 rounds is the sample I’m going with for my modeling
Driving Accuracy Percentage
- Driving accuracy was more important last year with the firm greens after renovation and the sticky Bermudagrass rough, so I’m looking for accurate drivers this year
Approach 175-225 Yards
- Like we mentioned before, players will have a lot of shots from 175 to 225 yards so adding some extra emphasis there is advisable
Bermudagrass Putting
- The greens at East Lake are Bermudagrass so if we want to narrow down the putting stats looking at Bermuda tracks is a good idea
SG “East Lake”
- History at East Lake isn’t a perfect science with the renovations last year, but does give us an idea of some of the better ball striking fits
When we put that all together, my #1 player is Scottie Scheffler, followed by Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland and Cameron Young.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (GFS model via windy.com)
Thursday’s forecast looks calm as can be, and the area also got a solid amount of rain Tuesday so it should be softer than players saw in 2024. The big change prop wise is them going from a par 71 to a par 70, but unlike the BMW Championship course that also saw changes on top of that, this time there’s not as much going on. I expect the scoring to get worse to par, but raw scoring wise to potentially even improve from what we got last year. My projected field average is between -1.25 to -1.75, with the other categories adjusting accordingly. Fairways should be a bit easier to come by after the rain. And while one of the holes will be harder to hit GIR wise because it’s a par 4 now instead of a par 5, the rain will make the greens softer which will offset some of that impact. The result is what I think are soft projections on these sites to attack!
Round 1 Free Play:
Our Round 1 free play is going to be this 2 leg slip on Prize Picks for a 2.75x payout. If the rain softens up the course like expected then these two will be solid line values and a spot of correlation we can take advantage of.
Sam Burns Under 69.5 Strokes
- Burns is top 10 in form this week gaining over a stroke per round over his last 12 measured rounds, so with a projected scoring average in the 68.75 to 68.25 range I love the value on this under. He has no line on books to comp to, but he projects better than a lot of the players that are at 69.5 and juiced -130 or more for their unders on books.
Rory McIlroy Under 68.5 strokes
- Rory is top 3 in this field in SG per round at East Lake, and is also top 5 in SG per round heading into this week as well. The scoring average has a chance to be around this sort of number, so an elite tier player like Rory is a no brainer for an under in my opinion. He’s -130 currently for the under on DK, but rain + softer conditions could make that even better value once the market adjusts.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
