After Oakmont Country Club battered players to pieces and only JJ Spaun managed to break par.. TPC River Highlands will be MUCH more inviting for players and could be a bit of a “birdie fest” for some. The massive swing in difficulty will be a good way to get players back into the regular flow of things, and also provides some much needed variety for us golf fans!
Here in this prop preview I’ll be getting you ready for all of your exposure tomorrow, with a complete breakdown of the golf course, the weather Thursday, and a prop slip I’ve already mixed in for Round 1. Let’s hop in!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Fleetwood Over 2.5 BOB (+105 on DK) ❌
DeChambeau Over 3.5 BOB (+125 on DK) ❌
Season-Long Hit rate: 26-21-1 year-to-date (55.3% hit rate)
I only had access to sportsbooks up in PA, and the two plus money props we took both ended up chalking. It’s unfortunate because both had plenty of opportunities to make birdies, they just couldn’t get anything to drop with the putter.
Tournament details:
Field size – 72 players
Cut – No Cut
Returning Champ – Scheffler (-22)
Past Champs – Bradley, Schauffele, English, Johnson
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
TPC River Highlands – Cromwell, Connecticut
Par – 70
Length – 6,844 yards
Green type – Bent/Poa
Designer – Pete Dye
# of Bunkers – 68
# of holes w/ water – 5
Rough – Bluegrass/Fescue 4”+
Stat Averages from the last 3 tournaments at TPC River Highlands:
To help establish some baseline numbers for this course, here are the stat averages for the field in various categories from 2022-2024.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!
Driving Bias:
TPC River Highlands only ranks a 3.4/10 in the “Bomber’s Paradise” metric, showing that length isn’t a prerequisite to success around this course.
Approach distribution:
The main takeaway from the approach distribution would be the plethora of shots coming between 125-175 yards. Almost half the iron shots will be in that bucket, so adding some extra emphasis there could be a good idea.
How to model at the 2025 Travelers Championship:
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 6 “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- The BTN model is looking at off the tee form heading in, not adding much emphasis to either driving distance or driving accuracy. Ideally having both aspects is preferable around here
SG Approach
- Regular approach form is always a key in any SG model, and this week is no different in the BTN model.
Approach 125-180 Yards
- As we saw in the approach distribution earlier, there are a ton of extra shots in this range so adding extra emphasis is a good idea
SG Around the Green
- Even at the easiest of courses ARG cannot be completely ignored
Putting 5-15’
- The BTN model is narrowing down putting stats to the 5 to 15 range at a course that emphasizes that range more than most
Birdie or Better percentage
- At what could be a bit of a birdie fest, BTN is looking at high upside players a bit more than usual
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Before talking Thursday specifically, it’s worth noting that the area has gotten a good amount of rain this week and that conditions will be softer than usual as a result. Weather wise tomorrow, it looks ideal early on, with mild temperatures and almost no wind. As the day progresses, wind will become a bit more of a factor in the afternoon and evening hours but I would still expect scoring to be about what it was last year because of the softness.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our free play this week is back on the pick ‘em sites, and pays 3x for 2 correct over on Prize Picks!
Wyndham Clark Under 9 Fairways Hit
- The fairway average was 9.28/round in 2024 and over the last 3 years it’s 9.1/round, but a player like Clark who ranks in the bottom 50 on tour in driving accuracy is an under I like for tomorrow. He had his best finish ever at this course in 2024, but even then he went under this line in 3/4 rounds and only pushed on the other day. Heading into this event he’s lost accuracy to the field in 6 straight starts, so the form isn’t on his side either. He projects for 0.5-1 fairways lost to the field and with the push equity at this number was worth mixing in. Another factor that really makes this a solid under is Wyndham’s aggressiveness off the tee. There’s a drivable par 4 he’ll for sure take on, some doglegs he has the length to carry, etc. that will limit his lay up opportunities compared to other players in the field, further lowering his projection for us.
Russell Henley Over 4 Birdies or Better
- Russell is the #27 birdie or better percentage player on tour in 2025, and with what was a 4.58 BOB/round average last year I’ll take this with the push equity at 4 in our back pocket. The course has gotten rain all week which will further soften up the greens and lead to even more birdies than usual. He does tee off a bit further into the day than I’d like in an ideal scenario (early AM is preferable), but he’s in the top 15 of the betting odds this week and the other guys I was eyeing early in the AM were closer to average players, hence why I took this spot instead for my first piece of exposure. Henley is someone I bet outright because of how well he fits this sort of track, with driving accuracy and iron play from 125-175 yards being heavily rewarded and being the biggest strengths of his game. He projects for just over the 4.5 BOB average from last year, which makes this line great value .5 lower.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
