The PGA Tour heads to the city of Brotherly Love for this week’s Truist Championship, a fitting warm up for next week’s PGA Championship! Not only does Philadelphia get a tour event for the first time in ages, but the Wissahickon Course at Philadelphia Cricket Club will be a star of its own this week!
Here in this preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your prop exposure for Round 1, including a look at the course details, modeling, a weather report and of course our free play for Thursday’s action. Without further adieu, let’s hop on in!
2025 Free Play Record:
Eric Cole Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Beau Hossler Over 4.5 Birdies or Better❌
Hit rate: 21-15 year-to-date (58.3% hit rate)
The Beau miss from last week’s article was one of the more tilting misses I’ve had for quite some time. Not only did he miss a sub 5 footer for birdie on his last hole of the day to hook us by 0.5 BOB, but he had another 3 misses within 10 feet for birdie that also could have gotten us there. Just stupid unlucky there, but let’s get back at ‘em this week!
Tournament details:
This week’s event is a typical “signature event” where there is no cut. The elevated purse and FedEX Cup points are in play as well.
Field size – 72 players
Cut – No Cut
Returning Champ – McIlroy (-17)
Past Champs – Clark, Homa, McIlroy, Homa, Day
Purse – $20 million
Course Details:
The venue for this event is one that we’ve never seen before on tour. It will be an interesting puzzle to put together but here are some details to get you started!
Philadelphia Cricket Club (Wissahickon Course)
Par – 70
Length – 7,119 yards
Green type – Bentgrass
Designer – A.W Tillinghast
# of Bunkers – 118
# of holes w/ water – 6
Rough – 3” Fescue/Rye
Stat averages for this week?
Unfortunately for us, because this is our first time ever at this track, we don’t have the usual stat averages or analytics to work with. It changes the process up a bit for sure, but the books also don’t have access to the info so everyone is on the same playing field right now.
I’m personally on record as saying I don’t think this course is too tough. Especially with the rain the area has gotten this week and is forecasted to get during the event, I think we see scoring averages under par and a winning score into the high teens under par. It’s hard to put an exact number on a scoring average now, but anything between -0.5 and -2 wouldn’t surprise me as there are a ton of birdie holes out here.
While I do see scoring looks, 4 or 5 holes per round are also going to be very tough, namely two 215+ yard par 3s and three par 4s that measure over 485 yards. Those holes could be problematic if players don’t hit a good drive, but the rest of the track is going to be a birdie fest.
How to model at the 2025 Truist Championship
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the tee
- Driving form is a key stat to keep an eye on this week and a total game of accuracy + distance is preferred. Setting up proper angles into the undulated greens could also prove important
Carry Distance
- Power is always nice on tour, but there are some bunkers players can carry this week that will make driving a bit more straightforward for the longer hitters. They’ll still need to execute from that spot onwards though!
SG Approach
- Iron play is THE most important stat for any shots gained model, and this week is no different.
APP 125-175 Yards
- The area to hone in on iron wise would be the mid to short irons with this being a short par 70. Expect to see a lot of scoring clubs in hand for players, and those that can take advantage will be in prime position to score at PCC.
SG Around the Green
- ARG looks tricky this week and could be a factor on windy days, but it’s more of a smaller emphasis stat with the soft conditions being projected.
Putt 8-15’
- The 8 to 15 foot range is a key statthe BTN crew is adding extra emphasis to with the soft greens and potential for darts being thrown into greens.
Birdie or better %
- With soft conditions, scores should be low around PCC. A winning score could approach -20 and those with the horsepower to drop 20+ birdies are going to get a bump up in the model as a result.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Weather for Round 1 looks extremely favorable for scoring conditions. Winds will be nonexistent for much of the day, temperatures will be mild, and the area also got some significant rain this week which will soften things up. While we don’t have stat averages to work off of, I am projecting for an under par scoring average, and something in the -0.5 to -2 range for the field.
Round 1 Free Play
Now that we’ve deep dived the course, let’s find some value for Thursday’s action! Here’s a 2 leg slip I already played over on Prize Picks for a 2.75x payout taking advantage of what should be scorable conditions tomorrow.
Cameron Davis Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
- Cam is the #3 birdie or better percentage player on tour this year, and with what I’m projecting to be around a 4 BOB average for the field, he could have just an average day and cover this sort of line. For his career he’s been a solid Bentgrass putter, which is the putting surface this week, and with the plethora of wedges players will have into holes he should have a ton of opportunities to score.
Russell Henley Over 4 Birdies or Better
- Russell rates out as the #6 birdie or better percentage player on tour this year, and as one of my first clicks for an outright this week is a player I like with the push equity at 4 in our back pocket. He’s got solid form heading into this week, gaining just under 1.5 SG/round over his last 12 measured rounds on tour, and with 0.8 of those SG coming on approach he’s been absolute dialed too.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
