It’s major week! And on tap we’ve got the toughest test of golf yearly in the US Open. What makes 2025 special in particular for the 3rd major is Oakmont Country Club which will play host to this week’s festivities. It’s regarded as one of, if not the toughest golf course in the world and with the US Open setup it will be particularly gnarly. Expect to see plenty of bogeys from the field, a cutline well over par, and some of the carnage that us golf fans love to see.
Here in this preview we’ll be getting you ready for all of your prop betting at Oakmont. We’ll fully deep dive the course from the stat angle, go through a weather report for Thursday, as well our Round 1 free play! We haven’t seen the course in tournament play since 2016 but it’s well known layout and doesn’t really ever surprise us too much. That being said, let’s hop on in with this week’s preview!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Keith Mitchell Under 68.5 Strokes ✅
Nicolai Hojgaard Over 4 Birdies or Better Push
Season-Long Hit rate: 26-19-1 year-to-date (57.78% hit rate)
Our slip from last week ended up with one hit on Killa Keith and one push on Nico the protector of the “Hos” (shoutout to my guy Degen!). That wasn’t quite the full cash but the profit was nice to mix in. Let’s make it a full cash this time around!
Tournament details:
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Bryson Dechambeau -6
Past Champs – Clark, Fitzpatrick, Rahm, DeChambeau
Purse – $21.5 million last year (this year not announced yet)
Course Details:
Oakmont Country Club – Oakmont, PA
Par – 70
Length – 7,372 yards
Green type – Most Poa Annua with some Bentgrass base
Designer – W.C. Fownes
# of Bunkers – 168 sand traps
# of holes w/ water – Zero – but there are “ditch penalty areas”
Rough – 5” Bluegrass/Ryegrass/Poa
Stat Averages from the last 3 tournaments at Oakmont CC:
To help establish a baseline at this course, here are some of the stat averages from the last 3 tournaments at this track
2016 Prop Based Averages:
If we focus in on the last time we had the US Open at Oakmont CC, and hone in on some of the specific prop categories, here’s what we get! These metrics will be the most helpful for our prop process. It’s worth noting that the fairway and GIR data was only able to be sourced from the guys who made the cut that year (but it does have their data for all 4 rounds)
How to model at the 2025 US Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 9 “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving is always a key stat at US Opens and while this isn’t a bomb and gouge course, off the tee excellence will be rewarded with the 5 inch rough around this property
Driving Accuracy
- Hitting fairways is going to be the name of the game on the more strategic par 4s around Oakmont and players with precision off the tee will be at a premium this week
Approach 175-250 Yards
- Long irons are key on the longer par 4s and par 3s at Oakmont, so focusing our iron analysis on shots from over 175 yards could prove fruitful
Approach 100-140 Yards
- Wedges are moreso a factor on the short par 4s, but to score and make birdies at Oakmont accurate wedges are a requirement
SG Around the Green
- Even the best ball strikers are going to miss plenty of greens around Oakmont so incorporating ARG play is necessary, especially with how difficult the greens and surrounds are
SG Putting – Bent/Poa
- The greens are Bentgrass overseeded with Poa Annua and if you want to narrow down your putting analysis looking at stats on the surface is a good idea
Putting 5-10 Feet
- With how much slope the greens at Oakmont have, the 5-10 foot range is where most of the makable looks will come so adding some extra emphasis on those putts is something BTN is doing
Bogey Avoidance
- Strategic play is rewarded at Oakmont with how many bogeys will be made, and targeting players who excel at playing par golf is a good idea unlike at some birdie fests
Scrambling
- Another way to look at short game is with scrambling stats
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
On top of what look to be ideal conditions Thursday with no wind and mild temperatures, the area has gotten a good dose of rain this week and greens should be somewhat receptive. This course plays brutally hard even in “easy conditions”, but it will be as gettable as possible for Round 1 and potentially Round 2 as well.
Round 1 Free Play(s)
Because I’m in Pittsburgh for the event and pick ‘em sites aren’t legal here, we’ll be playing the Free plays this week as straight bets on DK! Both are available on UD with a multiplier so you can mix them in there for a solid payout though if you can only get money down on those sort of sites.
Tommy Fleetwood Over 2.5 Birdies or Better +105
- Tommy Lad is someone I think fits Oakmont very well with his driving accuracy and iron prowess, and with the best conditions of the week I like him to get to 3+ birdies or better. The field average in 2016 was 2.4 and I think it could be over 2.5/round Thursday, so even though he’s not an elite BOB% player I still like this spot at +money and with a favorable multiplier on sites like Underdog. I just don’t think the books have accounted for the soft golf course and calm conditions enough.
Bryson DeChambeau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better +125
- Bryson is an elite tier birdie maker, ranking out as the #3 player on the LIV tour in the category, and with the softer conditions should be pin hunting and trying to post a low one. I personally think the elite tier guys like a Rory/Scottie/Rahm + Bryson should be at 3.5 birdies and about even money so there’s a chance I mix in the other guys for overs as well. The field has some lower tier amateurs in play the first few days and elite tier players like this should gain a birdie or more to the field, which is why I have them at about 3.5 for a projection and why I played this over.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
