While some might be looking ahead a week to the Masters, we still have an order of business to attend to before then with the Valero Texas Open! Here in this blog we’ll get you ready for all of your prop + betting exposure this week. That’ll include a full breakdown of the event and course, as well as the BTN modeling for this week and a round 1 game plan on the prop side of things. Without further adieu, let’s get started!
2025 Free Play Record:
Houston Open:
Jaeger U 15.5 Pars or Better❌
Griffin O 3.5 BOB❌
Hit rate: 16-10 year-to-date (61.54% hit rate)
Last week was our first ever 0-2 slip on these articles.. Oof. Was bound to happen at some point but it stings nonetheless. Time to bounce back!
Tournament details:
Field size – 146
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Akshay Bhatia (-20)
Past Champs – Conners, Spieth, Spaun, Conners, Landry
Purse – $9.5 million
Course Details:
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course
Par – 72
Length – 7,438 yards
Green type – TifEagle bermudagrass / Poa trivialis overseed
Designer – Greg Norman (2010)
# of Bunkers – 64
# of holes w/ water – 3
Rough – Perennial ryegrass / fescue 2.25”
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at TPC San Antonio
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The two shortest proximity buckets get a bit of extra use around TPC San Antonio compared to most courses on tour
How to model at the 2025 Valero Texas Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the tee
- The BTN crew is including regular off the tee play in the model as per usual, which makes sense at a course like this that doesn’t lean too heavily into the distance versus accuracy debate
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- While not every tee shot is tight and requires precision, there are a few around here that can cause issues and being able to miss in the right spots is key (ask Kevin Na what happens when you miss – oof!)
SG Approach
- Iron play is the most consistent SG metric from event to event, and this week it’s important to hone in one just like every other week on tour
Approach 75-125 Yards
- The 75-125 range is where a TON of approaches come from at Valero, especially on the more scorable holes like the short par 4s and layup par 5s
SG Around the Green
- When the winds kick up, this course can get tough in a hurry. While ARG isn’t the most emphasized factor this week, it can’t be completely ignored
Overseed Putting
- Putting on this Poa Trivialis overseed is something that we have a massive sample size on at this point, having played on the surface for nearly 2 months straight now
Bogey Avoidance
- Just like ARG, bogey avoidance really comes into play when the wind becomes a problem. Looking at current forecasts, there’s a chance that Friday afternoon gets hit by some wind so it could be something to keep an eye on
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
The morning weather looks a bit calmer than the afternoon, but overall conditions look pretty calm for Texas this time of year. Temperatures also won’t get out of hand until the afternoon, so I would expect the course to maintain some receptiveness for the morning as well with some of that evaporating in the 90+ degree temperatures later in the round.
Round 1 Free Play
Here’s our free play for this week! The site to play these on is Prize Picks as the payout is 3x as opposed to just 2.58x on Underdog.
Corey Conners Under 4.5 Birdies or Better
- Corey has won this event multiple times which is why he’s got a line this high, but even an elite course history player like him has gone under this more often than not over his last 16 rounds at this event. The BOB average was around 3.3/round last year and for round 1 I’m projecting for anywhere between a 3.25-3.5 average for the field, which means Corey would need to gain 1.5 BOB to the field to cover this. That wouldn’t be too much of an ask for a player like Ludvig Aberg, who is juiced -140 for his over on books, but Corey ranks closer to 50-60 on tour in BOB% and isn’t elite in the category. On FD he’s juiced -140 for his under at this #, which makes sense with his PM tee time as it’ll be a bit more blustery in the afternoon.
Denny McCarthy Under 70.5 Strokes
- On the other side, I like this under on Denny’s strokes who is -120 for his under on FD, and even more juice on sites like Caesers + William Hill. He almost won this event last year nearly losing out to a red hot Bhatia, and with his solid form heading in could be setup for another run at the top of the board. Round 1 will be a prime time for him to get started, with an AM wave tee time when winds will be down for most of the wave. I would expect around an even par scoring average, maybe even slightly under par for the morning wave without the presence of any Texas wind. And by taking a positive and negative stance play here together, we get a much better payout than any correlated 2 man slip would. And if you mixed these in on UD the combo would only pay 2.58x with the juice on each spot, but because they are 50-50 props on Prize Picks we get the standard payout. Make sure to snag them before any sort of bumps because I could see them coming in with the juice on these two
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
