Also known as the “People’s Open”, this week is THE most electric week on the tour schedule. Hundreds of thousands of fans flock to TPC Scottsdale for what is the biggest spectacle in all of golf. On top of the atmosphere being unlike any other, the course also generates plenty of excitement of its own. Here in this preview we’ll get you ready for all things prop related this week with an idea of how the course is playing, then our plan of attack and FREE PLAY for round 1. Let’s get into it!
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Before we go through the details for Pebble, I want to recap how our results have looked to start 2025.
2025 Free Play Record:
Sentry 1-1 ❌ (-1 unit)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Xander Schauffele Under 67.5 Strokes ❌
Sony 1-1 ❌ (-1 unit)
JT Poston Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ❌
Joel Dahmen Over 68.5 Strokes✔️
AMEX 2-0 ✔️ (+1.75 units)
Eric Cole Under 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Nick Dunlap Over 5.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Farmers 2-0 ✔️ (+2.24 units)
Tony Finau Over 3.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
Luke Clanton Over 68.5 Strokes ✔️
Pebble 1-1 ❌ (-1 unit)
Billy Horschel Over 71.5 Strokes✔️
Sepp Straka Over 71 Strokes❌
Hit rate: 7-3 (70%)
Profit/Loss: +0.99 units year to date
Sepp played all world last week to keep us from the full cash. Let’s try and get back on the cash train this week!
Tournament details:
Field size – 132 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Nick Taylor (-21)
Past Champs – Scheffler (x2), Koepka, Simpson, Fowler, Woodland, Mastuyama (x2)
Purse – $9.2million
Course Details:
TPC Scottsdale – Stadium Course
Par – 71
Length – 7,261 yards
Green type – Poa trivialis / bentgrass / ryegrass overseed
Avg Green size – 7,069 sq. ft/green
Designer – Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris (1986)
# of Bunkers – 67
# of holes w/ water – 6
Rough – 2” Ryegrass / fine fescue overseed
Stat Averages from the last 3 years (powered by Betthenumber’s course page)
Below are the averages from the last 3 years at TPC Scottsdale.
2024 Prop Based averages:
If we narrow down the stat averages to just last year, and give the raw numbers so we can make them actionable prop wise, here’s what we get!
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution skews a little bit longer this week, with less shots in the 50-125 range and more in the 125-175 and 175-225 buckets.
How to model at the WM Phoenix Open
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
SG Off the Tee
- OTT is being measured as a combination of both distance AND accuracy this week, as TPC Scottsdale is a track where a variety of different player types can find success
SG Approach
- Approach is ALWAYS important to measure heading into events, pretty much regardless of the track, but especially at a 2nd shot golf course
SG Approach 175-225 Yards
- This proximity bucket is especially valuable at the WM as you can see in the approach distribution section
SG Around the Green
- ARG could be a bit more of a factor in 2025 if the greens are a bit firmer like reported
SG Putt 8-15’ (Overseed)
- Most birdie looks come in this 8-15 foot range at the Stadium course and by looking at that range on these overseeded greens, we can get an idea of who likes putting on these type of complexes
Par 5 Scoring
- A lot of the birdie looks are going to be generated on the 3 par 5s, which are reachable for some of the longer players in the field
Apex Height
- Apex height is a driving stat, but is going to help us more when it comes to approach. Players with a high ball flight will have an easier time holding these greens if they firm up
Comp Courses
- In terms of comp courses, I’m looking at TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship), the PGA West Stadium Course (American Express) + TPC Summerlin (Shriners Childrens Open)
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for tomorrow. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing tomorrow
Thursday’s weather forecast:
Conditions look like typical desert golf tomorrow, calm and sunny all day. The one thing to keep an eye on could be the colder temperatures early, but by 10am local it should be comfortable out there.
Round 1 Free Play
Here’s a 2 leg slip I’m entering over on Prize Picks for Thursday’s action! This pays 2.75x with the correlation between the two
Akshay Bhatia Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
- Akshay was #34 in fairway % on all of the tour in 2024, and considering he’s gained accuracy to the field in 15 of his last 17 world wide events, I like this over on fairways for round 1. The fairway rate was 8.29 in 2024 at this course so even a slightly below average day would be a hit for us which is crazy on an accurate driver like Akshay.
JJ Spaun Over 12.5 Greens in Regulation
- JJ was the #16 GIR player in all of the tour in 2024, so with his hot iron form lately (gaining .88 SG APP per round over his last 24 rounds), I love this over. The average was 12.78/round last year and that was with some high winds for round 1, so with low winds and an AM tee time he should be in a good spot Thursday. All he needs to do is gain about .25 GIR to last year’s average and with his pedigree I project him solidly over.
Let’s cash out on our round 1 slip and for all our exposure this week! Make sure to join the Betthenumber site for course analytics and tools to grind out some value. Code GSLUKE when checking out for a discount!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
