Next up we’ve got the World Wide Technology Championship, which takes us to Los Cabos Mexico! The Fall Swing is nearing its end and we’ve only got a few more events left for players to secure their playing status for 2026. Add that on top of the regular drama of a tour event and we’ve got a fun week ahead!
Here in this prop and betting preview we’ll be getting you prepped for all of your exposure. That will include a complete deep dive of El Cardonal at Diamante, course analytics via BTN, custom modeling, a weather report and our Round 1 prop play. By the end you’ll be an expert for all the action this week. So without further adieu, let’s hop in!
Bank of Utah Championship Prop recap:
Last week our free slip missed by the narrowest of margins, with Taylor Montgomery hooking our 4.5 birdie line. He started off cold as ice which proved too much to overcome by the time he started making putts. It stings a bit but I feel good about the reads. Sometimes it just doesn’t work out like we’d hope.
Season-Long Hit rate: 47-29-2 year-to-date (61.8% hit rate)
Tournament details:
Field size – 120 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Austin Eckroat (-24)
Past Champs – Erik Van Rooyen (-27)
Purse – $6 million
Course Details:
Par – 72
Length – 7,452 yards
Avg Green Size – around 8,300 sq. ft/green
Green type – Platinum Paspalum
Designer – Tiger Woods (2014)
Rough – No rough
Stat Averages from the last two years at El Cardonal:
To set a baseline for what to expect this week, here are some analytics from the last two years at El Cardonal. Without shot link the data is a bit limited compared to most weeks, but we still have quite a bit to work with.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just the prop categories in 2024, here’s what we get. These will be more actionable for our prop exposure.
How to model at the 2025 WWT Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 WWT Championship and find the top players of the week, BTN is using 5 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
SG Off the Tee
- Driving has been a key separator at El Cardonal over the last couple years and especially distance at nearly 7,500 yards.
Proximity
- Proximity is another way to look at iron play heading in, and helps identify some of the better approach players in the field.
SG Around the green
- Chipping isn’t the most important stat but still matters a bit on the par 5s and drivable par 4s for making birdies.
SG Putting
- At a birdie fest putting is typically extremely important and this week that holds up. A hot putter heading in would be nice.
Birdie or Better Percentage
- We need players capable of posting 7-8 birdies a round, so by targeting high birdie or better percentage players we can find aggressive players for this style of course.
When putting those stats together, the top 5 in the BTN model are Kevin Yu, Michael Thorbjornsen, Garrick Higgo, Pierceson Coody and Kevin Roy. All of which who are long and rank highly in BOB%, necessities to go low this week.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (GFS model via windy.com)
Weather for Round 1 looks pretty typical, with some seaside wind present but nothing too severe. There are days where Cabo can be like playing in a dome or the complete opposite where it plays like a Hurricane, but it looks like we aren’t getting either tomorrow. It’ll be warm all day, with winds in the 8-10mph range consistently.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our prop slip for Round 1 is going to be this 2 leg slip that will pay 3x if we go 2-0!
Matt Kuchar Over 68.5 Strokes
- I have the projected scoring average at around -2, so asking Matt to shoot -4 to go under this is a bit too much of an ask. He’s been solid lately, but even with the good form is only averaging about 1.1 shots gained per round over his last 12 measured rounds, which has him at about a 69 stroke projection. Fanduel seems to agree with this idea as his strokes line is juiced -138 for the over at this number, close to a +ev value no matter what type of slip you play it in.
Stephan Jaeger Over 5 Birdies or Better
- I have the projected birdie or better average at about 4.75/round, making this over at 5 something I’ll play on Jaeger with the push equity in our pocket and a better payout multiplier on this 2 man than if we went with fades only. He’s one of the better birdie makers in the field ranking top 10 in the category, and on the entire tour ranks #36 so he projects for about 0.5-0.75 birdies or better gained. In my opinion he should be at 5.5 birdies or better so I’ll smack this over 0.5 lower. He’s at 5.5 on DK/FD but juiced quite a bit under, which I just don’t agree with personally. I’d have him much closer to even money myself, hence why we’re on this over at 5.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
