We’re down to the last regular season event of 2025 and players have a lot on the line this week. Playing privileges are in limbo for much of the field which amplifies the usual drama of a tour event. It’s not an exaggeration to say that some of these guys have their dreams and hopes on the line in Greensboro. Some will be crushed, some saved by a last minute flash of brilliance. One thing is for sure though, it’ll be a fun watch!
Here in this prop preview I’ll be preparing you for all of your betting exposure. We’ll talk about things as simple as course details and setup, and go as deep as advanced analytics and statistical modeling that we’ll be implementing. By the end you’ll be an expert on all things Sedgefield Country Club, and you’ll also have a gameplan for attacking the betting boards as well. Including a slip for Thursday that I’ve already mixed in. And if the last few weeks are a sign of anything, we have the hot hand right now so let’s see if we can keep it going!
Last week’s Prop recap:
Keith Mitchell Over 4.5 Birdies or Better ✔️
- Started slow for us but ended up going nuclear in his middle 6 holes, posting ALL of the birdie production we needed
Cameron Champ Under 69.5 Strokes ✔️
- Also was a bit of a slower starter, but an eagle at hole 18 (his 9th hole) propelled him well on his way to covering for us
Season-Long Hit rate: 35-25-2 year-to-date (58.33% hit rate)
Last week’s course lean ended up being SPOT ON! Lift clean and place, soft conditions and low winds led to easier than a -2 scoring average so our guys didn’t even have to do anything special to cover for us. Average days were enough to get the job done, and considering both players’ form and history at TPC Twin Cities, it was easy to pull off. Let’s see if we can run it back this week!
Tournament details:
We’ll start off with some details for this week’s tour stop. It’s a “regular” event so there’s a full field and a cutline this time around.
Field size – 156 players
Cut – Top 65 and ties
Returning Champ – Aaron Rai (-18)
Past Champs – Glover, T Kim, Kisner, Herman
Purse – $8.2 million
Course Details:
We’ve seen Sedgefield CC for a LONG time at this stage, and it’s one of the more historic courses that the tour plays at every single year. Formerly known as the Greensboro Open, this tournament has some of the most robust history and data which helps us out greatly with handicapping.
Sedgefield Country Club – Greensboro, NC
Par – 70
Length – 7,131 yards
Avg Green Size – 6,000 sq. ft
Green type – Champion Bermudagrass
Designer – Donald Ross (1926), Kris Spence renovation (2007)
Number of bunkers – 52
Water Hazards – 5 (in play on 6 holes)
Rough – 2.5” Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from the last 3 years at TPC Twin Cities:
Referencing the course page on BTN, we can get a baseline of what to expect at this course compared to the PGA tour average. The metrics below reflect the last 3 years worth of data at Sedgefield CC.
2024 Prop Based Averages:
If we narrow down those averages to just last year, and specifically the prop categories we can bet on pick ‘em sites, here’s what we get!
Driving Bias:
This course is much more positional than a lot of the recent tracks the tour has played. Missing even the wrong side of fairways can create almost impossible angles into the greens, and the missed fairway penalty is extreme despite the rough only being listed at 2.5 inches long. Bermudagrass rough is “sticky” and tends to play longer than it’s cut, and the tree lined aspect to the course also adds penalty to errant tee shots. As such, driving accuracy is preferred over driving distance.
Approach distribution:
The 126-175 yard bucket accounts for just under HALF of the approaches at Sedgefield CC. Though the course is relatively short and has plenty of par 4s under 450 yards, the amount of forced layups really impacts the iron distribution. Even bombers won’t have too many wedges from 100 or less yards, so extra emphasis should be given to shots slightly longer into the green.
How to model at the 2025 Wyndham Championship:
In order to model at the 2025 Wyndham Championship and find the top plays of the week, BTN is using 6 “key stats” in their modeling. Those stats are listed below, as well as the top 5 players overall when combining everything together.
Distance from Edge of Fairway
- This metric gives us an idea of how extreme a player’s misses are off the tee. With the tight driving corridors at Sedgefield and the high missed fairway penalty, taking players who can keep the ball in play will have its benefits.
SG Approach
- Iron play is always a cornerstone of any good SG model, and with how many layups there are off the tee many consider this track a “second shot golf course”.
Approach 100-170 yards
- BTN is narrowing down the approach profile down to 100 to 170 yards, giving us an idea of who excels with the specific approach distribution at this course.
Scrambling
- Around the green can’t be ignored at a course like this that is harder to scramble at than your tour average. The green surrounds have undulation and the tricky green complexes can’t be slept on either.
SG Putting 6-15 feet
- The 6-15 foot bucket is where players have historically been able to separate from the field at this course, so much like the approach profile, adding extra emphasis here could prove fruitful.
3-Putt Avoidance
- The 3-putt percentage at Sedgefield is significantly higher than most other tour stops with the tricky greens, so lag putting becomes more important here.
When we put the model together, the top 5 players this week are Emiliano Grillo, John Pak (wow!), Andrew Putnam, Victor Perez and Henrik Norlander. All are more positional players off the tee and also have solid iron form heading in so no surprise that the BTN model is high on each at the Wyndham.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast: (HRRR model via windy.com)
Weather wise, it looks beautiful for most of tomorrow morning, but the afternoon could have slightly more action. Winds don’t get above 7mph sustained all AM and conditions look clear too, but in the PM there’s a storm cell forecasted to come through and with some rain and wind kicking up. Not enough to drastically impact scoring, but the morning side could be slightly favorable. Overall I would expect scoring similar to last year as the weather was pretty ideal most of the week.
Round 1 Free Play:
Our Free Play this week pays 2.79x on the Underdog side. Because of the line value there’s a chance these bump there payout wise, so if so you can mix them in on Prize Picks for 2.75x!
Jordan Spieth Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
- Jordan has been an above average birdie maker this year ranking top 80 on tour, and that’s despite playing a harder schedule than most with hardly any “birdie fests” played recently. With the field average at just under 4/round last year, I think we see it potentially get to 4.25 tomorrow morning with the low winds and receptive conditions. If so, he’d have to gain 0.5-0.75 BOB to the field to cover which is something I’ll take him for in this sort of field. He’s juiced -135 for his over on DK as well so there’s a bit of line value.
Si Woo Kim Over 13.5 Greens in Regulation
- Si woo ranks out as an above average GIR% player, and given the average was a hair over 13/round last year has me projecting for around a 13.25-13.5 average tomorrow morning. If so, Si woo would need to gain 0.5-0.75 GIRs to the field to cover which seems reasonable given his elite course history. He’s also juiced -140 for his over on DK which has it approaching the +ev range just based on odds alone, let alone with traditional analysis/conditions.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
