Who’s ready for some team golf?! This week’s tour stop, the Zurich Classic, gives us a bit of a change of pace when it comes to format. Rather than your typical stroke play event, teams of 2 golfers will play a combination of best ball and alternate shot this weekend to determine a champion. While it undoubtedly changes the handicapping process a bit, with proper research and preparation betting on the tournament can be just as fun as usual!
Here in this blog we’ll be preparing you for all of your prop exposure, including a detailed look at TPC Louisiana, the course for this week, as well as a Round 1 game plan for all of your bets. Without further adieu, let’s hop in!
2025 Free Play Record:
RBC Heritage
Homa Over 69.5 Strokes✔️
Cantlay Over 4.5 Birdies or Better (1.1x)✔️
Hit rate: 20-12 year-to-date (62.5% hit rate)
After a couple weeks of 1-1 finishes, we got back into the profit last week with a full 3.56x cash. That’s exactly what we had hoped for after some bad breaks heading in, let’s keep it rolling for Zurich!
Tournament details:
Field size – 80 teams
Cut – Top 33 teams and ties
Returning Champ – McIlroy/Lowry (-25)
Past Champs – Riley/Hardy, Cantlay/Schauffele, Leishman/Smith
Purse – $9.2 million
Course Details:
TPC Louisiana
Par – 72
Length – 7,425 yards
Green type – Poa Triv. Overseed
Designer – Pete Dye
# of Bunkers – 106
# of holes w/ water – 7
Rough – 2” Bermudagrass
Stat Averages from 2014-2016 (last time this course was played in stroke play)
While the format will be different this week, by using the averages from when this was a stroke play course, we can get an idea for how it plays in general. As you’ll see, it isn’t that tough even when played without a partner.
2024 Best Ball (Four Ball) Averages:
This week throws off the research process a bit, but I did a full deep dive on the two best ball rounds last year to give us an idea of how the course may play tomorrow. In Rounds 1 + 3 last year, the two best ball rounds, the course played to around 65.3 and 64.8 scoring averages respectively, giving us a decent idea of course difficulty.
Approach distribution:
The approach distribution is pretty balanced this week, with perhaps a few more shots than usual coming in the 176-225 range than most courses.
How to model at the 2025 Zurich Classic
Betthenumber’s model for this week has 7 main “key stats” incorporated to rank players and their fit for this week. Below is the top 5 in the BTN model as well as a description of the key stats they are using to find values this week.
“Regular” SG OTT + APP
- Your ball striking categories, approach + off the tee, are always key fixtures of any SG analysis and just because we have teams this week doesn’t change that aspect.
APP: 120-200 yards
- If you really narrow down the iron play this week, you get a few extra shots in this 120-200 yard range so focusing on approach stats in that bucket could prove fruitful.
ARG: Overseed
- With the overseed still in play this time of year, looking at chipping stats off of the surface is the best way to handicap the specific test at TPC Louisiana.
L16 PUTT: Overseed
- This category lets us see the hottest form players on Overseed heading into the week. Because we’ve seen it so much lately, it gives us a great measure of their momentum heading in.
PUTT: Overseed 8-15’
- Rather than focusing on overseed form in general, this stat category focusing on a player’s baseline from 8 to 15 feet helps us with birdie production at a course where a ton of looks will come from that range.
Birdie or Better Percentage
- And my favorite stat for this week, birdie or better percentage. BOB% gives us a tangible way to see the “horsepower” of players and how low they can actually go. In best ball, that aspect is arguably the most important stat this week.
Round 1 Game Plan
Now that we’ve got the course and modeling down, let’s turn to the prop side and try to find some value for Round 1. First, let’s check the weather and see what sort of conditions players will be facing Thursday.
Thursday’s weather forecast:
On top of what looks to be a relatively calm forecast for Thursday per the HRRR model, the area is getting hit by some rain and thunderstorms today which should soften the course up a bit. I expect to see some low scoring tomorrow, perhaps even better than last year because of how receptive the greens will be.
Round 1 Free Play
Our Round 1 Free Play is going to be a 2.75x slip over on Prize Picks with us trying to lock in some potential correlation with course conditions.
Erik Van Rooyen + Christiaan Bezuidenhout Under 65.5 Strokes
- EVR + CBez have an am tee time which is when conditions should be absolutely ideal for Thursday and they project as a well above average team in this field of 80 teams. With around a 65 scoring average for best ball last year, I love this under on these two as about an average round would be an under when using last year’s metrics.
Adam Hadwin + Nick Taylor Under 65.5 Strokes
- While the Canadian duo of Hadwin/Taylor have a PM tee time as opposed to an early one like the South African team, they rank out even better projection wise and with their form which makes up for that aspect. While Hadwin hasn’t had an electric year, he’s outperformed EVR/CBez most this year and Taylor’s form has been excellent. So even with a little wind, I’ll take them to have an average or better day tomorrow.
That’s all for this week’s blog. Best of luck with all of your exposure, and let’s have a week!
On top of the free articles every week, make sure to tune into my YT channel – GSLUKEDFS, for all of the shows throughout the weekend! (Rounds 2-4)
